Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[No Blue States]

I take your word for it.

Check out the nws NO loop, seems to barely be moving at all.
(slow loading getting hammered)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

[BurbankKarl]

http://www.cingularhams.com/hurricane.htm

click the snellville feed.....it is the Hurricane Net on 14.325 it is currently receiving traffic from all over.....but the net control operators can't hear each other.

[mrsmel]

It's already done,my husband had to get the last few things that I couldn't reach.

[pnz1]

I saw a guy on the Weather Channel this am. Not sure if it was live or recorded, though.

[rwfromkansas]

Normally true unless they come in as Cat 4'r or 5's.

[Tuxedo]

Hurricane City also showing a westward wobble at 6:21 UTC (11:21 EDT). They are also streaming audio. www.hurricanecity.com

[TheLion]

Why are Hurricanes named after women?

[lainie]

It would be nice. I'll try to get it running when I get back from an appointment.. but I'm not familiar with the Port of New Orleans.

[GOP_1900AD]

Notice something else? Eye is now located at 88.2 deg W long. It is now at its westernmost forecast position. And has not even turned due north let alone NNE.

[numberonepal]

BOUY UPDATE
Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	46.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	38.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	17 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.34 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.20 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	48.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	30.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.55 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.06 in ( Falling )
Station 42007 - BILOXI 22 nm South-Southeast of Biloxi, MS.
Wind Direction (WDIR):	NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	35.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	17.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	17 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.06 in ( Falling )

[GOP_1900AD]

Pray for weakening.

[BurbankKarl]

KP4BG

RIO PIEDRAS Puerto Rico reporting power out, internet down on his part of the island (from Jeanne)

[lainie]

At the risk of being ridiculed yet again for second guessing the high and mighty NHC, but looking at the latest radar loop, that thing is still moving NW.

[TheLion]

Winds have increased a lot in the last hour!

[IM2MAD]

Is that little square thingy in your posts a beeber? Just wondered what one looked like.

[Pyro7480]

38.4 foot waves and pressuring dropping rapidly... not good signs...

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Ivan Tracking Page (Updated 9/15 - Highlighting Landfall)
--Local Media Links (AL, MS, LA)
--Hurricane Ivan Image Timeline

[Hatteras]

Um, Ivan is a man's name.

[BurbankKarl]

Well, I am sure they just base their estimates on past storms. I bet usually the hurricanes come up into the Gulf and the winds from the west push them east...but that isnt happening with this one. Perhaps that is why it is so *rare* that NOLA gets hit.

*disclaimer* I never took a weather class in my life, and I havent stayed in a Holiday Express since 1996

[Types_with_Fist]

...that thing is still moving NW.

My apologies to Linda Vester and TWC but you are correct. This thing is still beading on the mouth of the Mississippi and Lake Ponchatrain beyond. Not good at all.