Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[pete anderson]

This picture is still not the worse case scenario for NOLA.

[TheLion]

This thing is going to produce "biblical" rains, as one forecaster said. Not fun.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Sarasota getting feeder bands and The Weather Channel said Sarasota and surrounding area could get possibly damaging winds from it. It looks like a lot of storms within the bands.

[nightdriver]

That thing has already turned radically northward and it looks to me like it's going to double back and hit Florida again.

Prayers for all potential victims.

[pete anderson]

This thing is going to produce "biblical" rains...

The biblical rains will be the least of the problem with Ivan.

[JellyJam]

It hasn't arrived yet ... but the radar sure shows it's coming. Damn! I better duck.

[jeffo]

Here are the major models from the Weather Underground site. They are converging well... and none of them point to a Florida strike! Note that some of the model runs are 16 hours old.

[nwctwx]

High Resolution Gulf of Mexico Infrared Image

[lainie]

Good question. I picked Biloxi Bay, MS

Highs & Lows..
High 12:59 pm -- 1.67 ft.
Low 7:38 pm -- 1.36 ft.
Range 0.57 ft.

But it ranges from place to place so I don't know how to quantify it.

http://66.135.8.10/tideserver/TideChartServe.asp

[nwctwx]

[jeffo]

That thing has already turned radically northward and it looks to me like it's going to double back and hit Florida again.

What view are you basing that on?

[TheLion]

I'm just looking tides up. It looks like it will hit near the middle of the cycle from that data.

[pete anderson]

No Hurricane parties in Gulfport this week.

[sully777]

I don't think Ivan has moved east at all, has it? The closest I've seen it move east is north, and that's still not east, it's just not west. Why do they keep saying it's going to move east? Do they want Florida to get hit again or something?

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The TWC showed a high pressure ridge spinning in a clockwise rotation off Atlantic, drawing IVAN up and eastward. Meanwhile they showed a strong front from the west acting like a wall bumping the storm away from Texas and western LA (this is shown by the sheer on the western side of the hurricane). In other words, the hurricane is driving slowly toward some point between FL panhandle to NOLA.

OTH, hurricanes have minds of their own. Prayer for Lili Part 2.

[augustus713]

If the hurricane doesn't turn, it will hit NOLA dead on. Most tracks have it going along this path for around 6 more hours before turning north.

[lainie]

Good map. Did you happen to see this one?

http://www.weatherroanoke.com/tropics.html

I'm not sure how to read it but other people here can. I'm sorry I can't remember who deciphered an earlier incarnation of it.

[TheLion]

I would be very worried in NO. How did they come up with that eastern yellow line?

[nwctwx]

The high pressure sitting off the New England Coast should help it go north in time... BUT, Ivan is not being influlenced by it nearly as much as envisioned. He is basically in his own environment still and I would not be surprised to see him continue West of North for some time still.

[pete anderson]

If this thing hits NOLA dead on, the city will be destroyed and the Insurance Companies will be looking for ways not to pay out. Instead it will be the American Tax Payer rebuilding an area of 1.5 million people.

[JellyJam]

Good thing I didn't our stuff back into the back yard. It could nasty.

We've had nothing but a drizzle and some wind all day today. Now I'm hearing some big rumbles; local radar shows it's closing in quickly.