Posted on 09/14/2004 10:41:58 PM PDT by lainie
My daughter and her husband were evacuating from Eglin AFB, and they were stuck in traffic most of the day; I finally booked them into a hotel in Laurel MS. I'm hoping that's far enough inland to get them away from the brunt of the storm! I tried to get them away from the river and out of low-lying areas, but with every hotel seeming to be booked solid, I suppose any shelter inland is a decent one. I'm praying for all in Ivan's path, and I just hope I didn't book a place that's too dangerous...
That thing is a giant.
I hope it loses some power.
If that thing gets with in 60 miles of Nawlins....well...
I don't think those pumps can move that much water.
It's possible that it could wipe out the first floor level of the Quarter.
It's gonna be a disaster where ever it hits.
That thing could still be hurricane strength by the time it gets even with Birmingham/Atlanta!
Thats the intertropic convergence zone, yes that's where these things "sometimes" get started.
Thats the intertropic convergence zone, yes that's where these things "sometimes" get started.
Crude Oil Rises as Hurricane Ivan Cuts Gulf of Mexico Output
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day as Hurricane Ivan prompted Gulf of Mexico producers including Royal Dutch/Shell Group to evacuate platforms in the biggest disruption of the region's output in at least two years.
About 1 million barrels a day of Gulf production has been shut, equal to 5 percent of U.S. consumption, the government's Minerals Management Service said. U.S. crude oil inventories may fall as the storm prevents tankers from reaching ports along the Gulf that receive more than half the country's oil imports.
Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 40 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $44.79 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has risen 4.3 percent this week.
``Inventories could draw down because some ships are probably being held offshore due to the storm and production has been shut down in the Gulf,'' said Kurt Barrow, an energy consultant at Purvin & Gertz Inc in Singapore...
If Ivan makes landfall in Louisiana, refineries will be shut for several days, said Randy Simpson, vice-president for supply and trading at New West Petroleum Inc. in Sacramento, California. .
``It's not so much the wind that affects the refineries as the flooding,'' he said. ``The refineries could be down for a day or two more'' if they flood, he said...
Lili's Legacy
Hurricane Lili followed a similar path into the Gulf from Sept. 30 to Oct. 18, 2002, and producers lost 9.9 million barrels of oil output from Gulf platforms during the shutdowns the storm caused. Lili was a Category 4 storm before weakening as it approached the coastline.
Ivan would need to shift farther west to replicate Lili's track, according to Claire Souch, a spokeswoman for storm modeler Risk Management Solutions Inc., which estimated the losses from Lili at $300 million to $400 million.
The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. oil import terminal, stopped offloading tankers Monday.
The reduction in output and imports comes as U.S. inventories are falling. The Energy Department reported last week that U.S. crude oil supplies declined 1.4 million barrels to 285.7 million in the week ended Sept. 3, the sixth straight weekly drop. Supplies probably fell by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of estimates by 13 analysts in a Bloomberg survey before the department's report later today.
``We've got production shut, we've got refineries shutting and this is the time of year when we need to be building inventories,'' New West's Simpson said...
(Excerpted)
To contact the reporter on this story:
Sri Jegarajah in Singapore at sjegarajah@bloomberg.net; Gavin Evans in Wellington, New Zealand
at gavinevans@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tony Jordan tjordan3@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 15, 2004 00:41 EDT
Bill
I don't think Ivan has moved east at all, has it? The closest I've seen it move east is north, and that's still not east, it's just not west. Why do they keep saying it's going to move east? Do they want Florida to get hit again or something?
It is concerning that Ivan shows no real shift east recently. If he continues towards SE LA for much longer, it could be trouble.
Seriously, here is the "spaghetti run" of the models from Hurricane alley, you can see that some of the models do still favor a florida strike, including one that still cuts through Central FL!
Yikes....big surge just before the eye makes landfall.
I think Stephanie is in Mobile.
Georges was headed straight for New Orleans [Cat 2 -3]and wobbled at the last minute and hit us in Ocean Springs. Stalled in the gulf for a few hours too. It was cat 2 at the airport and cat 3 at Keesler AFB.
You just don't know until it hits. Pray.
I say it will hit New Orleans or west of New Orleans, they still think it will straighten out and go north to Mobile or turn east to the Panhandle of Florida.
I hate to say it but The Weather Channel is pretty piss poor. It can be pouring cats and dogs here in Southern IL for 20 plus minutes and it does not show up on their radars. I not talking about a sudden pop up shower either. I depend on Weather Bug to give me the best radar images in my area.
Only a Moron would ride out this storm at Grand Isle.
To all those in the other GULF COAST states.....
as the lady sang in the song...
"I say a little prayer for you".
Stay safe.
Sorry, I inadvertantly posted an old graphic for the spaghetti plot. Let me see if I can get to the real one. Sorry!
I need to RETRACT my post above about my weatherman.
I just listened again and he was talking about Ivan, saying that the pressure was lower than Hugo's.
He also said that Ivan is going to get stalled over the Appalachians.
We're over here now.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.