Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[BurbankKarl]

Weapons check at the shelter!


Superdome opens as refuge to all residents from 3 to 5 p.m.
Mayor Ray Nagin announced at 2:30 p.m. that the Superdome will be opened as a refuge of last resort for New Orleans residents needing shelter, but only for two hours this afternoon.

People will be transported to the Superdome between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. from seven pick-up locations -- public schools -- around the city. Only the elderly and families with children should use this option, Nagin said, but he didn't say that others would be turned away.

Nagin warned that there is no parking available at the Superdome, as the lots there are being used for storage of a variety of emergency equipment and vehicles.

Evacuees will be prohibited from entering with alcohol, weapons and pets, he said, and must bring their own food, water, and other supplies. Ice chests can be no larger than 32 quarts, he said.

The Superdome is expected to be used for 24 hours, and evacuees will be returned to the pick-up points when it closes.

Nagin said he delayed an announcement on opening the Superdome as a refuge to allow completion of the regular evacuation process, and to get streets cleared.

The following schools:
Medard Nelson Elementary School, 3121 St. Bernard Ave. ( in the 7th Ward)
Marion Abramson High School, 5552 Reed Blvd. (in eastern New Orleans)
McDonogh No. 35 High School, 1331 Kerlerec St. (in Treme)
O. Perry Walker High School, 2832 General Meyer Ave. (Algiers)
L.B. Landry Middle School, 1700 DeArmas St. (Algiers)
Walter Cohen High School, 3520 Dryades St. (Uptown)
Laurel Elementary School, 820 Jackson Ave. (Uptown)

[mikegi]

Recent Mobile, AL long range reflectivity image:

[kinghorse]

Hey nobody is praying harder for NO to pull through than people in Houston. Mexico's one thing but Louisiana, now that's where we draw the line on immigration.

/I keed I keed

sort of

[cogitator]

And also for Mobile:

[Types_with_Fist]

Wind NNE at 36 mph; gusting to 38

Hang on if you're there, the wind is gonna' pick up a bit in about 20 minutes.

[mikenola]

If anyone's curious you can look here to see a live view of where i'll weathering the storm from. my house is in the middle of the peninsula on the upper portion of the pic.

[scab4faa]

has anyone found any local news thats being streamed online? stuck at work until 9pm mdt

[AmericanMade1776]

Thanks , NO Blue States, I needed that....

[Dawgmeister]

Navarre's pier was damaged by Opal and rebuilt. Wasn't older than 9 years old according to the news guys...
The wind outside (where else?) is about 35 gusting to 45 or so. Gonna be a fun ride here, too.

[AntiGuv]

Hugo cost $9.7 billion in damages. I think Charley was estimated around $7 billion if I recall correctly. Ivan will take over the #2 spot at least from the look of things, maybe #1!

[gopwinsin04]

Hurricane weddings at Molly's in the French Quarter!

[Dog Gone]

I hope none of those Mobile shelters are on the map you posted.

[Mr. Jeeves]

She could have done better. ;)

[ZinGirl]

darn....i keep getting the dreaded "red x". good luck to you.

[AntiGuv]

Yup, Charley is estimated at $7.4 billion right now, which would put it tied with Betsy in fourth place after Andrew ($30.5 bil), Hugo ($9.7 bil), and Agnes ($7.5 bil).

[PBRSTREETGANG]

She could have done better. ;)

Any port in a storm.

[gopwinsin04]

The tux shop must have already closed for the day..

[Flux Capacitor]

----She could have done better. ;)----

Yes, but the highways were too clogged for me to get to New Orleans in time.

-Dan

[ken5050]

Hey..kewl.. I LOVE the big W's all around the building..BTW..seriously..be weell, and safe..

[Mr. Jeeves]

At least he isn't wearing the "Yutz Uniform": t-shirt, baseball cap, cargo shorts, and Birkenstocks. I saw so many idiots in Vegas last weekend going to nice restaurants and shows wearing it. ;)