Posted on 09/14/2004 1:22:29 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
There is quite a bit of new polling data out today, and it is (again) boding well for President George W. Bush and the Republican Party.
Let's start with the new state polling data out from a conglomeration of sources.....
(Excerpt) Read more at thesealclub.blogspot.com ...
There is nothing new here. All these polls were announced yesterday, no? Any new national polls being released today?
There hasn't been much polling done in Flordia (for obvious reasons), but if it turn out Bush is doing well there, I don't see how he can lose.
Ohio and Missouri now seem in the bag.
Kerry would have to make a stand in Florida AND hold on to Pennsylvania.
It looks like Bush will take Wisconsin and Kerry will steal New Hampshire and maybe West Virginia.
Why do you think so?
"New Jersey - More bad news for Kerry in New Jersey, as Bush continues to narrow the gap. The margin, according to Strategic Vision poll of Sept. 12, is now a mere three points (43% Bush to 46% Kerry) - a statistical deadheat. This is a slight tightening from the four-point lead Kerry had the beginning of the month. Joisey, with its 15 EV, is suddenly looking very much in play. Maybe it's time to send Laura and the daughters to the massive suburban strip that bands the state from southwest to northeast, and try to squeeze out the soccer mom vote?"
I am LOVING that Kerry may need to spend money to defend NJ. That means he has to spend money in two of the most expensive media markets in the country, New York and Philadephia, because there;s no local TV in NJ. Plus, the statewide radio station, New Jersey 101.5 leans heavily conservative from what I remember when I lived there a few years back.
This is very good news for the Bush campaign - if they devote some resources to NJ, they can win it handily if they just GOTV!
I thought West Virginia was trending toward Bush. Even Charlie Cook, who developed a strong pro-Democratic tilt before the 2002 mid-terms, says he thinks West Virginia is going for Bush.
It seems to me that if Bush actually carries Ohio and Missouri by those kind margins, there is little doubt he will carry Florida and/or Pennsylvania. As the country goes, so goes the swing states. In other words, don't look for a huge gap in the results from one true swing state to the next.
Huh? These states haven't been polled since early August/late July. Why would you put them in sKerry's column?
Poll
|
Date
|
Approve
|
Disapprove
|
Spread
|
RCP Average
|
9/6 - 9/10
|
50.6%
|
45.3%
|
+5.3%
|
9/9 - 9/10
|
48%
|
44%
|
+4%
|
|
9/8 - 9/10
|
51%
|
48%
|
+3%
|
|
9/8 - 9/9
|
47%
|
53%
|
-6%
|
|
9/7 - 9/9
|
56%
|
41%
|
+15%
|
|
9/7 - 9/9
|
52%
|
46%
|
+6%
|
|
9/7 - 9/8
|
49%
|
44%
|
+5%
|
|
9/6 - 9/8
|
52%
|
43%
|
+9%
|
|
9/6 - 9/8
|
50%
|
43%
|
+7%
|
|
9/3 - 9/5
|
52%
|
46%
|
+6%
|
|
9/2 - 9/3
|
52%
|
41%
|
+11%
|
|
8/31 - 9/2
|
55%
|
42%
|
+13%
|
|
8/30 - 9/2
|
48%
|
51%
|
-3%
|
Zogby ONLY changes his polling methods at the last minute
before elections so that he is not too embarrassed by the
results.
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