The Latest Polling Data - More Positive News for Bush!

The Baby Seal Club ^ | 9-14-2004 | Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus

[Yashcheritsiy]

There is quite a bit of new polling data out today, and it is (again) boding well for President George W. Bush and the Republican Party.

Let's start with the new state polling data out from a conglomeration of sources.....

[Yashcheritsiy]

More good news from a variety of sources!

[hawaiian]

There is nothing new here. All these polls were announced yesterday, no? Any new national polls being released today?

[kasparik]

There hasn't been much polling done in Flordia (for obvious reasons), but if it turn out Bush is doing well there, I don't see how he can lose.

Ohio and Missouri now seem in the bag.

Kerry would have to make a stand in Florida AND hold on to Pennsylvania.

It looks like Bush will take Wisconsin and Kerry will steal New Hampshire and maybe West Virginia.

[JohnnyZ]

Kerry will steal New Hampshire and maybe West Virginia.

Why do you think so?

[rocky88]

"New Jersey - More bad news for Kerry in New Jersey, as Bush continues to narrow the gap. The margin, according to Strategic Vision poll of Sept. 12, is now a mere three points (43% Bush to 46% Kerry) - a statistical deadheat. This is a slight tightening from the four-point lead Kerry had the beginning of the month. Joisey, with its 15 EV, is suddenly looking very much in play. Maybe it's time to send Laura and the daughters to the massive suburban strip that bands the state from southwest to northeast, and try to squeeze out the soccer mom vote?"

I am LOVING that Kerry may need to spend money to defend NJ. That means he has to spend money in two of the most expensive media markets in the country, New York and Philadephia, because there;s no local TV in NJ. Plus, the statewide radio station, New Jersey 101.5 leans heavily conservative from what I remember when I lived there a few years back.

This is very good news for the Bush campaign - if they devote some resources to NJ, they can win it handily if they just GOTV!

[Bonaventure]

I thought West Virginia was trending toward Bush. Even Charlie Cook, who developed a strong pro-Democratic tilt before the 2002 mid-terms, says he thinks West Virginia is going for Bush.

[Txpatriot1]

It seems to me that if Bush actually carries Ohio and Missouri by those kind margins, there is little doubt he will carry Florida and/or Pennsylvania. As the country goes, so goes the swing states. In other words, don't look for a huge gap in the results from one true swing state to the next.

[Conservative Infidel]

I know the national polls are saying NH is going to sKerry. However, I live in NH and I do not know anyone voting for sKerry. Even my most ardent liberal acquaintances are "going over to the dark side" and voting for Bush.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Kerry will steal New Hampshire and maybe West Virginia

Huh? These states haven't been polled since early August/late July. Why would you put them in sKerry's column?

[Future Useless Eater]

I believe the only reason there aren't even MORE battleground states now COMPLETELY in Bush's column, is that there haven't been any decent polls taken in those states post-convention. Its mostly just been Zogby...

HERE'S POSITIVE Proof that Zogby polls at this point in time are TOTAL JUNK!...

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RealClearPolitics Poll Average^SM
President George W. Bush Job Approval Ratings

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Poll	Date	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	9/6 - 9/10	50.6%	45.3%	+5.3%
Newsweek	9/9 - 9/10	48%	44%	+4%
Rasmussen	9/8 - 9/10	51%	48%	+3%
Zogby	9/8 - 9/9	47%	53%	-6%
Time	9/7 - 9/9	56%	41%	+15%
AP/Ipsos	9/7 - 9/9	52%	46%	+6%
FOX News/Opin. Dyn	9/7 - 9/8	49%	44%	+5%
ABC News/Wash Post	9/6 - 9/8	52%	43%	+9%
CBS News	9/6 - 9/8	50%	43%	+7%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	9/3 - 9/5	52%	46%	+6%
Newsweek	9/2 - 9/3	52%	41%	+11%
Time	8/31 - 9/2	55%	42%	+13%
Zogby	8/30 - 9/2	48%	51%	-3%

[Future Useless Eater]

Zogby ONLY changes his polling methods at the last minute
before elections so that he is not too embarrassed by the
results.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Good post....I'm taking the liberty of posting it in full....FReegards from Toronto....

There is quite a bit of new polling data out today, and it is (again) boding well for President George W. Bush and the Republican Party.

Let's start with the new state polling data out from a conglomeration of sources.

Florida - Bush appears to be maintaining a slight lead in this state. The latest poll from Rasmussen (9-12) has Bush up by one, 48%-47%. This is dead within the normal statistical fluctuation for the polling trend from the middle of August, in which polls have shown anywhere from a tie at 46% (Research 2000, 8-25) to Bush up by 2% (several). Florida is tentatively looking good, but still needs a lot of tender loving GOP attention and care. The situation is helped, though, by news coming out today Florida's elections director has approved Ralph Nader to appear on the ballot in November. Predictably, the Democrats are outraged at this blatant attempt to include (liberal) third parties in the democratic electoral process.

Ohio - Bush has widened his lead in Ohio, now setting at 52%-40%, according to a Strategic Vision poll of Sept. 12. This is a change from the 52%-43% reported by CNN/Gallup on 9-8. If the Kerry campaign doesn't watch out, Ohio (20 EV) is in danger of becoming one of those GOP blowout states like, you know, Wyoming or Utah. ;)

North Carolina - Much has been said about the relatively close race in North Carolina. A Sept. 11 Rasmussen poll now has Bush up 53%-44%, the widest lead that Bush has had in the state since the beginning of June. Maybe they weren't kidding when they said this was Helms country.

New Jersey - More bad news for Kerry in New Jersey, as Bush continues to narrow the gap. The margin, according to Strategic Vision poll of Sept. 12, is now a mere three points (43% Bush to 46% Kerry) - a statistical deadheat. This is a slight tightening from the four-point lead Kerry had the beginning of the month. Joisey, with its 15 EV, is suddenly looking very much in play. Maybe it's time to send Laura and the daughters to the massive suburban strip that bands the state from southwest to northeast, and try to squeeze out the soccer mom vote?

Wisconsin - Considered a liberal state, Wisconsin does have a strong conservative underpinning just waiting to break out. And it appears it maybe be starting to do so. A Gallup poll of Sept. 12 has Bush up 52%-44%% in Wisconsin, confirming and solidifying the lead Bush has held there since mid-August!

Michigan - This state is still not looking good, Bush is still trailing by five (45% Bush - 50% Kerry) according to Rasmussen polling for Sept. 12. I suspect that Michigan may still be too union-infested to really ever get behind a Republican presidential candidate except in a heavily uneven matchup, such as Mondale vs. Reagan in 1984. Time to cut taxes, encourage white-collar investment and prosperity in this Rust Belt state, and turn it into a Republican bastion!

Pennsylvania - This populous (21 EV) state retains a slight lead for Bush according to the latest Rasmussen poll (9-12), with Bush up by one, 49%-48%. This is a stabilisation and leveling of the swing seen in the state after the GOP convention. Before the convention, polling had shown Bush consistently down by 2-5%, the bounce has given him a small but consistent lead.

Concerning the state governour races, I haven't followed that polling enough to be able to provide a cogent analysis myself, but thankfully, John Hood over at National Review Online has. Check out his analysis, where he investigates the possibility that the GOP may add to its current 28-22 advantage in state governourships.