Posted on 09/10/2004 5:52:23 PM PDT by Flavius
It is bound to happen... maybe in 10, 20 years or even less. Economists and political scientists have been saying that China may be the next superpower, eclipsing America. This is China’s century, they say. The sleeping dragon has awakened! All 1.2 billion of China’s teeming masses are on their way to establish the world’s largest market economy and newest political superpower.
Listening to President Arroyo from the back of Dolce Fontana restaurant during last Tuesday’s MOPC Forum, I got the impression that our economist President got the idea too. And she is working to adjust our national perspective to take in the vision of China as the regional and world superpower that will eventually have more impact on our country than America.
Of course President Arroyo was careful to say that we have strong historic ties with America. But in responding to a question posed by a reporter from the Office of the Press Secretary, she also acknowledged the fact that our historic ties with China are even deeper... predating the arrival of the white man on our shores.
President Arroyo spoke glowingly of the over $1 billion in aid, concessional loans and contracts she brought home from Beijing. It was not lost on the audience in that packed hall last Tuesday, what was left unsaid in contrast: the meager $30 million in anti-terrorism assistance that was supposed to come from America have suffered all sorts of bureaucratic snags.
It was also not lost on the audience the policy contortions the Arroyo administration had to go through for military aid and trade concessions from America which often don’t materialize. To emphasize how important China is to her mind, President Arroyo said her state visit there last week is the only state visit she will make this year.
What really jolted me during that forum was President Arroyo’s announcement that we are on the verge of military cooperation with China. She is sending no less than newly installed Defense Secretary Nonong Cruz to China to work on the finer details of how this cooperation will work. "We recognize that China plays a determining influence in the security and economy of our region and therefore of our country," the President said.
Will the Chinese sell sophisticated firearms to help modernize the AFP? Will we be sharing sensitive intelligence information with China? Will we undertake joint patrols in the South China Sea to keep it free of pirates? The possibilities are mind boggling. The President’s subliminal message seems to be, America’s no longer the only game in town even for something as sensitive as military cooperation.
Not only will China now have a new market for its armaments, America’s hold on our military could be seriously challenged. Will the Chinese military send experts in guerilla warfare here to train our soldiers? And even as the Americans took away our cadet allocations at West Point and Annapolis to express disgust following the termination of the bases agreement, will this new cooperation with China mean top PMA cadets will be invited to train in China’s military academy?
The more important thing is, China’s being friendly not just to us but to all of ASEAN. When asked why she thought China’s being so generous to us, President Arroyo said China’s just being a good citizen of the world. Really? Maybe, we can give China the benefit of the doubt. But let us not forget China’s also acting in its best interest, which will not always coincide with ours.
At the rate China is undertaking this charm offensive, ASEAN could end up being a solid pro China bloc that would change the balance of power in our region. And all this is happening while America is distracted with Iraq, as the Bush administration placed Asia in the back burner. But I am afraid we will just replace America with China. The dependency relationship with a superpower remains.
The other more important aspect of that relationship we must develop to make the economic basis of our nationhood more viable, has to do with trade. I was disappointed that President Arroyo hardly touched on trade with China in her discourse on our emerging foreign policy shift.
I was hoping to hear her unveil a specific program designed to take advantage of China’s voracious appetite for commodities from bananas to vegetable oil. She herself noted that "ever since Beijing joined the World Trade Organization, Manila’s bilateral trade with China has gone from almost nothing to $10 billion, with the balance of trade in our favor."
I got word late Tuesday that the Philippines is finally part of the so-called early harvest program under the ASEAN plus China. That means, we will no longer have the 10-percent tariff disadvantage against Malaysia and Indonesia when we sell such commodities as coconut oil to China.
I remember a conversation I had with former Agriculture Secretary Cito Lorenzo about his plans to put up palm oil plantations in Mindanao that in as little as five years, would be able to supply palm oil for export to China. Right now, palm oil is one of the major exports of Malaysia to China and I was told China could absorb more.
If there is anyone who knows China and the commodities trade, it is Cito. His family-owned Lapanday (he divested before he took the agri job) is selling fruits like bananas and pineapple to China for close to 10 years now. Lapanday’s sale to China had gone from zero to half of total. And it will go higher as China’s appetite increases. Even rice is a potential export commodity to China, if we can untangle our rice growing problems.
As I proposed some months ago, the China market is important enough for the President to appoint a special envoy to China with a mandate to develop Philippine exports of commodities and manufactured goods. We need someone who will work not just for the industrial sector but for the agri sector as well. I think this is a job tailor made for Cito.
All I am saying is, the President is right to recognize the importance of China this early. With China’s exploding economy that seems unstoppable, we simply must find a way to hitch our kareton to the Chinese star and share some of the bounty from our powerful neighbor up north, through trade and not aid.
How the world has changed. Even as America still nominally holds the title of sole world superpower, China holds America by its financial balls... I mean bonds. If China stops buying American bonds or dumps what it holds, America’s kaput. By 2020 or even earlier, China may no longer be happy playing second fiddle. By that time, the sheer power of its market will make China the dominant superpower. The earlier we learn to live with it, the better for us. English English You would think the English know how to use English. This was forwarded by Norbert Goldie of Paranaque.
Spotted in a toilet of a London office: TOILET OUT OF ORDER. PLEASE USE FLOOR BELOW
In a Laundromat: AUTOMATIC WASHING MACHINES: PLEASE REMOVE ALL YOUR CLOTHES WHEN THE LIGHT GOES OUT
In an office: WOULD THE PERSON WHO TOOK THE STEP LADDER YESTERDAY, PLEASE BRING IT BACK OR FURTHER STEPS WILL BE TAKEN
In an office: AFTER TEA BREAK STAFF SHOULD EMPTY THE TEAPOT AND STAND UPSIDE DOWN ON THE DRAINING BOARD
Outside a secondhand shop: WE EXCHANGE ANYTHING – BICYCLES, WASHING MACHINES, ETC. WHY NOT BRING YOUR WIFE ALONG AND GET A WONDERFUL BARGAIN?
Seen during a conference: FOR ANYONE WHO HAS CHILDREN AND DOESN’T KNOW IT, THERE IS A DAY CARE ON THE 1ST FLOOR
Notice in a field: THE FARMER ALLOWS WALKERS TO CROSS THE FIELD FOR FREE, BUT THE BULL CHARGES
Message on a leaflet: IF YOU CANNOT READ, THIS LEAFLET WILL TELL YOU HOW TO GET LESSONS
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is philstar_chanco@yahoo.com
Arroyo ... selling her country to the highest bidder, imo .. too bad ..
she falls into a trap of her own making and fails to provide strong leadership when her country needs it most.
Let's see... Wealth, innovation, and power are byproducts of individual liberty, limited government, and low taxation. So, obviously, the answer to the question is, "No, China is not replacing America."
The Phillipines will definitely get the short end of the stick in that relationship.
The sleeping dragon has awakened!
NO kidding. It's awakened because we've given it everything it's got. We've given them literally all of our technology, education, and cold hard cash. We've given them our income generating dynamo. Meanwhile, we're falling fast as a nation. Real wages have plummeted, our population growth..illegal..is out of control and our costs are running away with us. We'll be a third world nation in 20 years, they'll be the only Superpower thanks to the Free Traitors.
China wants the Spratlys, right? And Arroyo is accepting blood money from the Chinese - money made from prison labor, the sale of body parts, etc.
Come and get it.
It's a funny old world, when we put all our foreign policy attention on two Asian countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, only to have Asians blow us off as not paying them enough attention.
I like what Arnold said at the convention. Doomsayers 20 years ago were predicting japan and Germany were going to be the new worlds superpowers. They did not because they have stifling gov'ts and the people are limted.
As long as America people are free(and I mean free) we will always beat China.
Cheer Up! Maybe the Chinese or Indian superpowers of the future will keep the good ol' USA around like the European powers kept the Spanish American empire, or later the Ottoman empire, hanging on...administrative convienences to collect taxes and pay off the huge debts owed to forgieners.
What some people fail to realize is than China is still a Communist country, at least more or less, and as long as that is the fact, it will never be a market or true market economy. In fact, isn't it true that at least 50% of the Chinese economy is still state-owned? Maybe more depending on your definition of 'state-owned'.
With the one-child policy, China will be stuck with a lot of old people. All the young people will be working hard to support their parents (unless China institutes a new one-parent policy!). There won't be a surplus of labor for military adventurism.
Then again, due to selective abortions and infanticide, there will be many more young men than young women, which will be a destabilizing factor. Unless they embrace freedom, however, or a Clinton regains the White House, they're not going to be able to keep up with us economically or militarily.
You are VERY wrong with that statement.
There is a big difference between communists in the old Soviet Union and communists in China.
The Soviet Union Union was multi-cultural and they loved their vodka.
China is made up of orientals. Orientals have a tremendous work ethic. China is homogenous. China will be the only superpower at some point in the future.
Unlike the United States, they guard their borders, they guard their culture, they guard their sovereignty, and they will not allow Spanish kids to be taught in Spanish in Chinese schools.
Ooooops..........I forgot. Like I said, they guard their culture and sovereignty. China will crush the United States some day.
"You are VERY wrong with that statement."
I doubt it.
"There is a big difference between communists in the old Soviet Union and communists in China."
Actually, jdluntjr said the following about China: "China is a superpower, but eclipse the United States, not in our lifetimes. 1. They don't have a truly free market economy - still essentially socialist. 2. They have no political liberties. Essentially they have a system ripe for corruption. Just like the soviets. As for military superpower. They have no blue water navy to speak of. They got lots of troops, but to get to most points of interest, they need to move them and materials on ships. Our Navy could take their 100million man army to the bottom of the ocean in a day if they decide to come out and play with us. Their air power is not as good as the Russians, and we see where those battles come. They do have nuclear weapons and ICBMs, but not nearly as many as we do and not as precise. We could smoke'm good. Their technology is derived either from the Russians or us (thanks Bill Clinton). Even their man in space rode on a space capsule that was a Soyuz ripoff. They didn't figure it all out for themselves....China has problems of their own. The church in China is growing powerful. If we are ever eclipsed by the Chinese, it wont be the Communist government in control. It will be Christians with God's blessings."
"The Soviet Union Union was multi-cultural and they loved their vodka.
China is made up of orientals. Orientals have a tremendous work ethic. China is homogenous. China will be the only superpower at some point in the future."
Pure nonsense. WHile Han Chinese are indeed the majority, there are still quite a few ethnic minorities...ever hear of the Uighurs or the TIbetans?
"China will crush the United States some day."
Not too likely. Besides, you never answered my statement that the Chinese economy is still at least 50% state-owned. When I say market economy, I mean a capitalist one specifically. It seems that you consider a market economy to be a successful one, regardless of whether or not it's capitalist.
What I meant to say is that as long as China is still a Communist country, it will never be truly Capitalist in it's economy. It's still basically socialist, at least more or less.
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