[libtoken]

Another quote from a weather board:

Not to hype...because I'm usually the last person to do this...but the probability of a SFL landfall has increased this afternoon based on two critical pieces of information.

1. The most recent 12 hour motion is 14 knots. On the 6Z hurricane center track...the hurricane should be slowing down now to 12 knots.

2. The most recent 12 hour direction of motion is 285. The hurricane center was expecting 295 by now.

The higher forward speed and direction of motion...should they continue...have very immediate implications. The UKMET and NOGAPS and other models are latching on this solution and have the storm moving faster in the next 48 to 60 hours. This means the hurricane could be on the SFL coast as soon as Friday morning.
No question given this information that the NHC will hurricane watches for the coast at 5PM.

[shield]

What weather board?

[alancarp]

Having just done a little research myself (probably as you were typing your post!), I am backing up your Weather Board report: given the NHC Tracks towards central Florida coast over the past two days, I compared their track expectations to the actuals observed over this past two days.

In all cases, Frances appears to be approx. 1 full longitude degree (60 miles +/-) further west than the expected track for the NHC mid-coast solution, when comparing equivalent latitude values. This corroborates the notion above that the compass direction "should have been" more like 290-295 degrees by now.

This argues for a stronger **possibility** of a South Florida hit - IMHO. I'll apply flame-retardant attire.

[SpookBrat]

But the real question is....(outing myself out here as an idiot)....should people 30 minutes north of St. Augustine leave? My husband, who is usually the calm one, is freaking out, so I thought I would get on here and ask the experts. We're not from Florida and don't really know what to do. We bought water, batteries, etc. Do we just sit around and wait or what?

I'm going to go back and read the whole thread.