Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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We understand that....we're praying something changes. If enough people pray mountains can be moved!!! This monster is one massive mountain. Florida is going to be wiped out!!! God help Florida!!!
I remember Cleo in 1964. I grew up in Boca Raton and Cleo was the first direct hurricane I experienced. Our house was right in the path of Cleo's eye. What an experience, 120 mph winds, then calm nothingness for 10 minutes, then more 120 mph winds when the backside went through. I'll never forget it.
I can't imagine what the folks in Florida are going through right now.
While I am not optimistic for the folks in FLA that this will take a tack to the north, I'm still keeping an eye on this thing even as far north as I am.
As another who went through Andrew in Homestead, I second that!!!! Also store up plenty of water, canned food, crackers and Peanut butter and Charcol. Also cover your clothes in the closets. They will get covered with insulation partilcles and will be unwearable. If you can get a generator now get it!! It will cost $1,000 after the storm. God Bless!
sw
Another note. After Andrew at least some insurance companies were covering the price of items like this, even if they were bought for a price higher than market value. I have no idea if they are still doing this or not.
Reading the forecast discussions in the Midwest/Plains indicate the ridge will begin to move on Saturday. St. Louis office mentions winds turning SEly starting Friday. This would indicate the eastern ridge will be moving/weakening on its western end. Frances will follow the path of least resistance.
At the moment, Francis is tracking slighty north of the projected path, but the last couple of frames indicate a more westerly movement, so this may just be the ordinary wobbles we routinely see. Sort of a stairstep approach toward landfall, so to speak.
I think Jeb was right to call a state of emergency for the entire state even this far in advance.
Friends in Edgewater say gas is gone there, too.
Good luck to you, Mulder.
The state of emergency declaration was definitely the correct, proper, and prudent thing to do.
If in the end, please Lord let it happen, this thing does track the other way (no optimism for that) and it doesn't hit Florida, no harm - but they are prepared for the eventuality it is going to hit.
It's unclear if it is a stagger indeed or the turn that one set of stormguessers have been predicting...
Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 32a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 01, 2004
...Frances continuing to lash the Turks and Caicos Islands...
now heading for the southeastern Bahamas...
a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of the Bahamas
and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast later this evening.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by
satellite and reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 22.3 north...
longitude 71.4 west or about 40 miles...65 km...north-northeast
of the grand caicos island. This is also about 625 miles...1005 km
...East-southeast of the southeastern Florida coast.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr.
A gradual turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Thursday.
Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds of near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts...recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. During the past few hours...Grand Turk
island reported a sustained wind of 79 mph...125 km/hr...as the eye
of Frances passed to the north. Some damage to trees and roofs
have been also been reported on the island.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft reports remains at 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the Bahamas near the eye of Frances.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...22.3 N... 71.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
I'm seeing the same thing, but that won't help Florida since Frances will have arrived by then. The weakening might keep the storm from re-emerging on the Gulf side.
I did forget to take into account speed of movement.
I don't think it's a significant shift, but simply more evidence that hurricanes are erratic in the short term even if their general tendencies can be predicted much further out.
Please Pleeese..Keep me posted, Although I live in San Diego, I own a house in Jacksonville that I am renting out.
It's located off the Old St Augustine Rd in Mandarin.
I already need to replace part of a leaky roof, and now it looks like this storm can blow the roof away!
Be Safe Floridians!
The biggest thing I learned today is that there is never enough time. We can do as much as possible and then have to sit and watch what happens and do everything we can to survive.
Me, on the other hand, who hasn't even sat through a major hurricane, I'm a bit on the nerved side here...
major track changes upcoming.....look out carolinas.
latest model runs...and the latest NHC discussion hinted at it......
the gfdl model has a carolina landfall now...inside of 72 hours the gfdl model is very reliable.
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