At the moment, Francis is tracking slighty north of the projected path, but the last couple of frames indicate a more westerly movement, so this may just be the ordinary wobbles we routinely see. Sort of a stairstep approach toward landfall, so to speak.
I think Jeb was right to call a state of emergency for the entire state even this far in advance.
The state of emergency declaration was definitely the correct, proper, and prudent thing to do.
If in the end, please Lord let it happen, this thing does track the other way (no optimism for that) and it doesn't hit Florida, no harm - but they are prepared for the eventuality it is going to hit.
It's unclear if it is a stagger indeed or the turn that one set of stormguessers have been predicting...
Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 32a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 01, 2004
...Frances continuing to lash the Turks and Caicos Islands...
now heading for the southeastern Bahamas...
a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of the Bahamas
and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast later this evening.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by
satellite and reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 22.3 north...
longitude 71.4 west or about 40 miles...65 km...north-northeast
of the grand caicos island. This is also about 625 miles...1005 km
...East-southeast of the southeastern Florida coast.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr.
A gradual turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Thursday.
Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds of near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts...recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. During the past few hours...Grand Turk
island reported a sustained wind of 79 mph...125 km/hr...as the eye
of Frances passed to the north. Some damage to trees and roofs
have been also been reported on the island.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft reports remains at 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the Bahamas near the eye of Frances.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...22.3 N... 71.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart