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Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)
Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne

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To: cwiz24
Isn't J.Lo expecting you? She talks about you all the time...

Have you seen a pic of J-Lo recently? She sure looks like she is expecting.....but not me.

321 posted on 09/01/2004 12:41:55 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: JustPiper
God bless you!

I really need to move back to Ohio. :-)

322 posted on 09/01/2004 12:44:41 PM PDT by JellyJam (Battening down the hatches in Sarasota)
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To: libtoken
Having just done a little research myself (probably as you were typing your post!), I am backing up your Weather Board report: given the NHC Tracks towards central Florida coast over the past two days, I compared their track expectations to the actuals observed over this past two days.

In all cases, Frances appears to be approx. 1 full longitude degree (60 miles +/-) further west than the expected track for the NHC mid-coast solution, when comparing equivalent latitude values. This corroborates the notion above that the compass direction "should have been" more like 290-295 degrees by now.

This argues for a stronger **possibility** of a South Florida hit - IMHO. I'll apply flame-retardant attire.

323 posted on 09/01/2004 12:47:31 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)
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To: alancarp

Any chance of Frances returning to a 270 course?


324 posted on 09/01/2004 12:53:45 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
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To: jpsb
Not showing in the data yet... the numbers have been pretty consistent over the past 24 hours: latitude increases of 0.2 per update; longitude increases averaging 0.7.

HOWEVER: the last latitude update only moved 0.1 (21.7 to 21.8). If that repeats (21.9), then it does suggest (to me) a flattening of the forward motion -- to around 275-280 degrees. However, if they report an increase of 0.3 (22.1), ignore it -- probably round-off error from the previous report.

325 posted on 09/01/2004 12:58:31 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)
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To: alancarp

Considering the evacuation orders in PB county and Broward press conference I just heard, others believe you as well.


326 posted on 09/01/2004 12:59:08 PM PDT by LBelle
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To: Right_Handed_Writer

In that loop it looks to me as if the eye is contracting. Is that just an increase of the stadium effect or is the eye actually getting smaller?


327 posted on 09/01/2004 1:00:45 PM PDT by brothers4thID (We are going to take from you to provide for the common good)
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To: alancarp

And seeing the latest satellite photo, I think Frances is at 22.0 / 70.9W as of 15 minutes ago or so. So I believe it is maintaining current approach angle.


328 posted on 09/01/2004 1:02:45 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)
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To: alancarp; libtoken; OXENinFLA; mrs tiggywinkle; Woahhs
But the real question is....(outing myself out here as an idiot)....should people 30 minutes north of St. Augustine leave? My husband, who is usually the calm one, is freaking out, so I thought I would get on here and ask the experts. We're not from Florida and don't really know what to do. We bought water, batteries, etc. Do we just sit around and wait or what?

I'm going to go back and read the whole thread.

329 posted on 09/01/2004 1:06:17 PM PDT by SpookBrat
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To: alancarp

Thanks, I guess the Fla Keys will be OK, I kinda worry about those crazy people down there.


330 posted on 09/01/2004 1:07:25 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
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To: Vigilantcitizen
That's an interesting scenario, but I don't agree with it. This hurricane is moving fast, and the faster it goes the less time there is for the Bermuda high to weaken and allow a more northerly course.

I'm still leaning toward a south central Florida landfall with an exit into the northeast Gulf, probably still as a Category 1 storm.

331 posted on 09/01/2004 1:07:38 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: jpsb

Some of us Keys people are sane, ya know! I even own a pair of closed-toe shoes!


332 posted on 09/01/2004 1:10:10 PM PDT by LBelle
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To: Dog Gone

What about Tallahassee?


333 posted on 09/01/2004 1:12:12 PM PDT by Howlin (John Kerry & John Edwards: Political Malpractice)
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To: Howlin

bingo - hubby and I were just figuring things out. We're in Homestead, if it hits Palm Beach, we will be under hurricane force winds even down here. The further South it hits, the more we get. North obviously less.

This storm is as big as James Carvilles mouth and will do more destruction than a Kerry Presidency.


334 posted on 09/01/2004 1:13:35 PM PDT by Brytani (A changing mind is a terrible thing to waste - Vote John Kerry)
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To: Brytani

What will you do?

I have friends in Edgewater, below New Smyrna Beach, who are planning to go to Tallahassee. I don't see how you all decide what to do!


335 posted on 09/01/2004 1:14:57 PM PDT by Howlin (John Kerry & John Edwards: Political Malpractice)
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To: Howlin

I'm staying in the house, all sealed up. My husband has been called into to ride out the storm at Turkey Point Nuke plant where he works. It's me, the dogs and cats in it for the long run.


336 posted on 09/01/2004 1:16:29 PM PDT by Brytani (A changing mind is a terrible thing to waste - Vote John Kerry)
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To: Brytani

*This storm is as big as James Carvilles mouth and will do more destruction than a Kerry Presidency.*

LOL!!!!! I've got to remember that one!


337 posted on 09/01/2004 1:16:53 PM PDT by LBelle
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To: Vigilantcitizen

Whew! Wish I didn't have to think about this but I do. You definitely sound like you've been watching storms for a while.


338 posted on 09/01/2004 1:17:48 PM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< http://ripe4change.4-all.org Judge Greer allows violations of Florida Statutes)
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To: Howlin

That's the dilemma for those of us who live in the Keys...where the heck do we evacuate to at this point? My next door neighbor decided to fly out tonight and visit family in Atlanta. She had hotel plans for Ft. Myers and then Orlando and finally decided just to get out of Florida entirely.

Not a bad plan, but we have pets and a baby so flying off isn't as easy as it used to be.


339 posted on 09/01/2004 1:19:15 PM PDT by LBelle
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To: RMDupree

She's not the only one LOL!
I sat through Hugo, it shifted just a bit about 30 min before landfall. Scared me to death! I wouldn't recommend staying for a storm of this calibar.


340 posted on 09/01/2004 1:22:53 PM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< http://ripe4change.4-all.org Judge Greer allows violations of Florida Statutes)
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