Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
Have you seen a pic of J-Lo recently? She sure looks like she is expecting.....but not me.
I really need to move back to Ohio. :-)
In all cases, Frances appears to be approx. 1 full longitude degree (60 miles +/-) further west than the expected track for the NHC mid-coast solution, when comparing equivalent latitude values. This corroborates the notion above that the compass direction "should have been" more like 290-295 degrees by now.
This argues for a stronger **possibility** of a South Florida hit - IMHO. I'll apply flame-retardant attire.
Any chance of Frances returning to a 270 course?
HOWEVER: the last latitude update only moved 0.1 (21.7 to 21.8). If that repeats (21.9), then it does suggest (to me) a flattening of the forward motion -- to around 275-280 degrees. However, if they report an increase of 0.3 (22.1), ignore it -- probably round-off error from the previous report.
Considering the evacuation orders in PB county and Broward press conference I just heard, others believe you as well.
In that loop it looks to me as if the eye is contracting. Is that just an increase of the stadium effect or is the eye actually getting smaller?
And seeing the latest satellite photo, I think Frances is at 22.0 / 70.9W as of 15 minutes ago or so. So I believe it is maintaining current approach angle.
I'm going to go back and read the whole thread.
Thanks, I guess the Fla Keys will be OK, I kinda worry about those crazy people down there.
I'm still leaning toward a south central Florida landfall with an exit into the northeast Gulf, probably still as a Category 1 storm.
Some of us Keys people are sane, ya know! I even own a pair of closed-toe shoes!
What about Tallahassee?
bingo - hubby and I were just figuring things out. We're in Homestead, if it hits Palm Beach, we will be under hurricane force winds even down here. The further South it hits, the more we get. North obviously less.
This storm is as big as James Carvilles mouth and will do more destruction than a Kerry Presidency.
What will you do?
I have friends in Edgewater, below New Smyrna Beach, who are planning to go to Tallahassee. I don't see how you all decide what to do!
I'm staying in the house, all sealed up. My husband has been called into to ride out the storm at Turkey Point Nuke plant where he works. It's me, the dogs and cats in it for the long run.
*This storm is as big as James Carvilles mouth and will do more destruction than a Kerry Presidency.*
LOL!!!!! I've got to remember that one!
Whew! Wish I didn't have to think about this but I do. You definitely sound like you've been watching storms for a while.
That's the dilemma for those of us who live in the Keys...where the heck do we evacuate to at this point? My next door neighbor decided to fly out tonight and visit family in Atlanta. She had hotel plans for Ft. Myers and then Orlando and finally decided just to get out of Florida entirely.
Not a bad plan, but we have pets and a baby so flying off isn't as easy as it used to be.
She's not the only one LOL!
I sat through Hugo, it shifted just a bit about 30 min before landfall. Scared me to death! I wouldn't recommend staying for a storm of this calibar.
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