Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)

Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...



Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers






Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[PJ-Comix]

Isn't J.Lo expecting you? She talks about you all the time...

Have you seen a pic of J-Lo recently? She sure looks like she is expecting.....but not me.

[JellyJam]

God bless you!

I really need to move back to Ohio. :-)

[alancarp]

Having just done a little research myself (probably as you were typing your post!), I am backing up your Weather Board report: given the NHC Tracks towards central Florida coast over the past two days, I compared their track expectations to the actuals observed over this past two days.

In all cases, Frances appears to be approx. 1 full longitude degree (60 miles +/-) further west than the expected track for the NHC mid-coast solution, when comparing equivalent latitude values. This corroborates the notion above that the compass direction "should have been" more like 290-295 degrees by now.

This argues for a stronger **possibility** of a South Florida hit - IMHO. I'll apply flame-retardant attire.

[jpsb]

Any chance of Frances returning to a 270 course?

[alancarp]

Not showing in the data yet... the numbers have been pretty consistent over the past 24 hours: latitude increases of 0.2 per update; longitude increases averaging 0.7.

HOWEVER: the last latitude update only moved 0.1 (21.7 to 21.8). If that repeats (21.9), then it does suggest (to me) a flattening of the forward motion -- to around 275-280 degrees. However, if they report an increase of 0.3 (22.1), ignore it -- probably round-off error from the previous report.

[LBelle]

Considering the evacuation orders in PB county and Broward press conference I just heard, others believe you as well.

[brothers4thID]

In that loop it looks to me as if the eye is contracting. Is that just an increase of the stadium effect or is the eye actually getting smaller?

[alancarp]

And seeing the latest satellite photo, I think Frances is at 22.0 / 70.9W as of 15 minutes ago or so. So I believe it is maintaining current approach angle.

[SpookBrat]

But the real question is....(outing myself out here as an idiot)....should people 30 minutes north of St. Augustine leave? My husband, who is usually the calm one, is freaking out, so I thought I would get on here and ask the experts. We're not from Florida and don't really know what to do. We bought water, batteries, etc. Do we just sit around and wait or what?

I'm going to go back and read the whole thread.

[jpsb]

Thanks, I guess the Fla Keys will be OK, I kinda worry about those crazy people down there.

[Dog Gone]

That's an interesting scenario, but I don't agree with it. This hurricane is moving fast, and the faster it goes the less time there is for the Bermuda high to weaken and allow a more northerly course.

I'm still leaning toward a south central Florida landfall with an exit into the northeast Gulf, probably still as a Category 1 storm.

[LBelle]

Some of us Keys people are sane, ya know! I even own a pair of closed-toe shoes!

[Howlin]

What about Tallahassee?

[Brytani]

bingo - hubby and I were just figuring things out. We're in Homestead, if it hits Palm Beach, we will be under hurricane force winds even down here. The further South it hits, the more we get. North obviously less.

This storm is as big as James Carvilles mouth and will do more destruction than a Kerry Presidency.

[Howlin]

What will you do?

I have friends in Edgewater, below New Smyrna Beach, who are planning to go to Tallahassee. I don't see how you all decide what to do!

[Brytani]

I'm staying in the house, all sealed up. My husband has been called into to ride out the storm at Turkey Point Nuke plant where he works. It's me, the dogs and cats in it for the long run.

[LBelle]

*This storm is as big as James Carvilles mouth and will do more destruction than a Kerry Presidency.*

LOL!!!!! I've got to remember that one!

[tutstar]

Whew! Wish I didn't have to think about this but I do. You definitely sound like you've been watching storms for a while.

[LBelle]

That's the dilemma for those of us who live in the Keys...where the heck do we evacuate to at this point? My next door neighbor decided to fly out tonight and visit family in Atlanta. She had hotel plans for Ft. Myers and then Orlando and finally decided just to get out of Florida entirely.

Not a bad plan, but we have pets and a baby so flying off isn't as easy as it used to be.

[tutstar]

She's not the only one LOL!
I sat through Hugo, it shifted just a bit about 30 min before landfall. Scared me to death! I wouldn't recommend staying for a storm of this calibar.