Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)

Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...



Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers






Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[Dog Gone]

If you're staying at a hotel that's not on the beach, you should be okay. Being several floors up is preferable because it minimizes the risk of debris flying into your window.

Plan on losing power, so take a portable radio. Bottled water might be a good idea, too. Taping the windows is useless.

Are you sure the wedding isn't being postponed?

[Gabz]

It hasn't been addressed as directly as you have :)

But you are correct about the possible economic impact this will have for the entire east coast. Many school up my way don't start until Tuesday, and I know with my family growing up this was always the tradional week for vacation.

[FlJoePa]

Regarding toll roads in the state of Florida - I'm pretty sure under emergency conditions, the state suspends the collection of tolls on all toll roads.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Angelrod


Like I said, I'm feeling guilty about letting them go and want to be with them if this thing hits. Any advice on how to deal with a hurricane when you are staying at a hotel.


Free advice:

1) Miami is a potentially rough town, like New Orleans.

2) Keep the Spouse & Kids in Miami, just make sure you're with them. It could get dicey.

3) Motel Safety ? Stay in a room that isn't on the top floor. Second floors are best, if there's one above you. Beware of flying glass.




Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[jpsb]

"PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT"

Ten degree change in direct over last 12 hours, hmmm, looks like the predicted turn to the north is beginning, if it continues then South Fla is safe.

[NonValueAdded]

Maybe 3/4 of the way but yeah, outta here is the plan!

[Vigilantcitizen]

Locator.

[PJ-Comix]

There has to be an economic impact, given that Labor Day weekend is upon us, everywhere from Key West up to the Georgia coast and maybe beyond.

Last weekend I was at Hollywood Beach where they had a Clambake Festival. Anyway, I was thinking it was the most beautiful weekend at the beach I've ever seen. On Saturday night there was an INCREDIBLE display in the sky. Off to the Northwest the clouds had just enough moisture to give off lightning about every 45 seconds but it was thin strand-like lightning that look like a brightly lit spider's web. This lasted for HOURS. Also I really got interested in wind surfing, not to be confused with windboarding. Wind Surfing is where you have a parasail kite in the sky and it pulls you on a surfboard VERY FAST. So fast it looks like jetskiing from the distance. I am now SERIOUSLY interested in that sport.

Well, anyway, it sure would be strange to go from such a perfect beach weekend to a weekend of howling winds and floods.

[NonValueAdded]

WTNT41 KNHC 011445 TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY... FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[alancarp]

Discussion Page Update (all caps again - sorry):

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[VeniVidiVici]

Another thing; I'm surprised at the number of long time Florida residents that don't know that you don't need a license to carry a loaded firearm in your vehicle.

Not saying either of you didn't know this, just seemed like the right time to make a statement such as this.

[alancarp]

Took me 39 seconds longer to add the paragraph breaks!

[RipSawyer]

"We are all paranoid. That's the way I feel about Myrtle Beach."

I remember Hazel and I often wonder what a similiar storm would do now. Myrtle Beach now is full of yankees who think they know something, back in the nineties I had a brief conversation with a transplant who assured me that he would never worry about a hurricane again since, "everybody told me how bad Hugo was going to be and it was nothing". When I pointed out that Hugo did not actually hit Myrtle he replied, "oh, yes it certainly did"!! I have yet to figure out how people can be so confused as to not know the difference between a direct hit and merely feeling a little of the outer fringes of the storm. An attitude such as this man displayed can get people killed.
I am fairly certain that if I moved to Buffalo I would listen carefully to what the natives told me about coping with the winter, how is it that these people move South and proceed to tell us native southerners that we don't know what we are talking about?

[NonValueAdded]

let's try that again ... NVA is at 27.9 80.7 see the 72 hr projection ... yow!

WTNT41 KNHC 011445
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY... FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[NonValueAdded]

Let's just say I'm a little distracted but point taken.

[weatherFrEaK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Eyewall replacement cycle is looking more obvious now on IR loop. The outer eyewall was reported to be 50 miles in diameter so you may see the eye expand in size to 40-50 miles in diameter after the cycle is finished. After that, the cane will likely increase in size and intensify further.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Doncha just love this positively-worded line? :-) They make it sound very "corporate".

FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE.

[VeniVidiVici]

FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE.

With a fruity aftertaste ;-)

[shield]

bmp

[Gabz]

I am fairly certain that if I moved to Buffalo I would listen carefully to what the natives told me about coping with the winter, how is it that these people move South and proceed to tell us native southerners that we don't know what we are talking about?

I agree with you 1000%........and I say that as a native of NYC who moved to the DelMarVA penninsula more than 20 years ago. after 20 years in Delaware I was pretty good at determining how to deal with different weather situations.........but now, having only lived where I am now in Virginia a bit over a year, you better believe I rely on the natives and their vast knowlege of the ins and outs of dealling with the weather.

I'm only 100 miles south of where I was in Delaware - but the weather is vastly different.