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WTNT41 KNHC 011445 TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY... FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND