Posted on 08/14/2004 1:42:49 AM PDT by kattracks
Not really, unless you want to say an area maybe a foot higher over sea level makes a big difference. Route 1 is the only road in and out of the keys (aside from Card Sound Road which isn't available until the Upper Keys and still dumps you off on Route 1). You can drive down Rt. 1 during good thunderstorms and have the water over the road.
The problem is that 40 years was a massive fluke. On average over a long period, this should happen there about once every 10-20 years. And wouldn't be unusual to have this happen twice in the space of 5 years at times.
Hugo was the first of the modern Killer storms, I could not believe the damnage done by Hugo. Done to building that have stood since 1700's. In an area that sees lots of huricanes. A hugo would have wiped out South West Fla, not just the coastal islands and bays, but all of south west fla within 20 miles of the coast.
Hmmm, I've never really looked at the keyes on a map, think I will. I just thought the keyes were bigger then 1/2 mile wide and were 8-10 feet in elevation.
Maybe more than 20 miles from the coast. I drove up I-95 one night about a week after Hugo. From maybe St. George to the N.C. state line, almost all the billboards and most of the road signs were blown down.
At many of the exits, the power was still out. Sometimes the power was on, and the spotlights that had illuminated the billboards shone up into the sky.
Trees had fallen over the interstate, especially above Santee, and the roadway was still pitted and pocked where they had fallen. The trunks had been cut at the edge of the emergency lane and dragged off the pavement, but you could still see all the fallen trees right at the edge of the emergency lane.
It was an eerie drive, and if I hadn't known my mile marker, I wouldn't have known where to get off that night.
But just in case, I live in a concrete block house with a large windowless closet available. And last night I slept next to a WeatherRadio that will automatically turn on during storm alerts.
Oh yeah. Here in north GA, it's been nice and chilly and we wish it would just stay this way the rest of summer.
...I actually heard Gov.Jeb Bush say ..."We don't know where God will ...(not sure of the word here...maybe 'direct' or 'send')...a hurricane.
Meanwhile, his FEMA rep was talking about 'mother nature'....
..Frankly, I've never met mother nature, but I sure know a lot about God from reading His bestseller.
Seems like Jeb might have read the same Book.
It's dumb luck. A recent careful re-analysis of the early 1800s found that Jacksonville area was hit repeatedly by strong storms; of course, the area was lightly populated then. It WILL have somewhat fewer hits than, say, Miami or Hatteras over time, because of the coastal shape.
But the lack of hits this century is likely just dumb luck. Nobody from TX to NC in an area that hasn't been hit recently should kid themselves that there's some real "reason" they haven't been hit and assume it will continue in the future.
I paid close attention to this storm, since the Fla West Coast is alot like the Texas gulf coast. I wanted to see what "the big one" would do to my area if the "big one hit". For a while it looked like the worst case sciearo. Big storm pushing lots of water ahead of it filling all the bays up with water and then a storm sugre comming in on top of already high water. But it doesn't look like that happened, Charlie was more like a big F2 tornado. I was worried about what an 18' storm surge would do to all the low lying areas. Happily that never happened.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 141446
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2004
...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
ISSUED...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 530 MILES... 855 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH
...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.4 N... 52.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
That's all I'm saying.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Tens of thousands of Floridians will have their homeowners insurance canceled over the next few years, and when they try to replace it the rates will be much higher.
This one grew very fast. Heck, a few days ago, it was a small summer squall. Then it hits as a 4!
God help those in Florida.
Not only homeowners insurance will go up. Car insurance premiums will also go up, yet again for those of us in S. Florida.
My area (Galveston Bay) hasn't seen a big hit since Carla, and Carla came ashore well south of us. We had lots of little huricanes that are more of a pain in the but then a killer storm. Allica was a direct hit but it was a small cat 2 and it did a great deal of damnage. Topical storm Frances wiped out the Marina next to my house, I spend entire night loosen lines on my sailboat and fending off loose boats. A big cane will wipe us out, but it has been a long long time since we got a big cane.
I feel bad for the home owners, but building on little barrier islands is not a good idea. They are lucky the islands are still there. A big huricane can cut a channel right thru a little off shore island and then wipe the entire island off the map. I have seen it happen.
The crew of the Hurricane Intercept Research Team is safe- but just barely. We were just west of Port Charlotte and several miles north of Punta Gorda at the overpass of exit 170 on I-75. We set up our equipment atop of the Chevy Tahoe by around 2:30pm. At 4:32pm or so we took a wind gust to 127 mph just as the eyewall came over our location. Rocks began pelting the vehicle- trees were being ripped apart and the rain was just like an intense car wash- virtually no visibility. We used the overpass as a shelter and there were several other vehicles under there as well- people stuck out in the hurricane.
The wind increased as signs and wood pieces flew by. Trees continued to shred and rip apart. Then- we saw an entire building come apart and its whole roof fly through the air and impact the embankment of the Interstate. At this point the rain coming around the overpass embankment turned muddy- filled with soil. It was roaring so loud that we could not hear ourselves talk. More rocks hit the Tahoe. Then a monster gust hit us and blinded us all with muddy, wind driven rain. This kept on for about 15 to 20 minutes until it let up just for a few seconds.
I could see behind me to our west where a bright light shone through the clouds- like it was clearing out. But this was west of us by a good ways- not just down the street. It was coming from the direction Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte. Just then- the biggest gust of the day hit us extremely hard- we heard crashing sounds, glass breaking and all sorts of debris hitting the truck. It was total fury with no visibility at all. The truck was surrounded in blasting wind and debirs. Then- in a matter of seconds, literally, only 3 to 5 seconds, it came to an immediate halt. ZERO wind. The clear spot opened up right over us as the eye passed over head. People got out of their cars and screamed from fear and exhilaration. I grabbed my camera and got out to take a look to our east. I could see the eyewall moving away rapidly- and then a little bit of sunshine broke out.
There was an eerie calm and the pressure kepy dropping to 944.3 mb on our vehicle. I ran up the concrete embankment of the overpass to peak over to the area where there was a hotel and several buildings. The scene was unreal. Large trees was gone, wood was scattered everywhere, light towers were snapped off and large pieces of building and roof material were impacted into the I-75 embankment. Again- I could hear people yelling out and hollering just to release their tension.
Within 5 minutes, the other side of the eyewall passed through. It was almost as bad and came up within just a few minutes. Winds quickly reached 117 mph on the Tahoe with plenty of readings over 100. The pressure rose very quickly as the eye left and the eyewall came back over. We endured another 30 minutes of pure hell once again and then the wind let up enough to see.
As things calmed down- we drove around the immediate area and saw entire buildings collapsed and destroyed. Large street lights were pulled out of the concrete and thrown onto the stoplight powerlines. Cell phone towers were shredded but not toppled. There was debris and glass everywhere. Entire trees were ripped out of the ground and dragged across the pavement. It was an intense event to say the least.
I am now a true believe at the power of the wind. I have seen storm surge and avoid that at all costs- but now that I have been through the eyewall of a category 4 hurricane, I will never place myself in that position again. And to know how many people died as a result of this hurricane is such a sad situation. I survived but only because nothing impacted the truck hard enough to cause injury to me or my crew. Luck is the reason we are okay.
So now I face the future of my hurricane field work. After what I went through with my team- I will not be in the core of a major hurricane ever again. I have been fascinated with hurricanes ever since I was a child and this was far worse than anything I could have ever imagined. I have a solution to the problem of wanting the data and the images without putting lives at risk. I will unveil this solution on my website next week. It was not ready for this mission otherwise I would have used it. I assure you it will be ready for the next major hurricane.
I will post video and data from our mission on HurricaneTrack.com as soon as I can next week. We have a data log of the wind up until one of the anemometers was taken out by debris. This will be an event that I'll never forget. And I am very thankful to be alive.
www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=37292
That is why, pre-PC days, they were given women's namea.
Fickle and very apt to turn on a dime!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.