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To: js1138
Remember this post from yesterday? http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1190983/posts?page=445#445 I have a theory that something about the geography of Florida steers hurricaines away from Jacksonville. Every time I see Jacksonville in the center of a predicted path I predict the storm will hug the edge of the predicted path

It's dumb luck. A recent careful re-analysis of the early 1800s found that Jacksonville area was hit repeatedly by strong storms; of course, the area was lightly populated then. It WILL have somewhat fewer hits than, say, Miami or Hatteras over time, because of the coastal shape.

But the lack of hits this century is likely just dumb luck. Nobody from TX to NC in an area that hasn't been hit recently should kid themselves that there's some real "reason" they haven't been hit and assume it will continue in the future.

410 posted on 08/14/2004 10:42:23 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist
It WILL have somewhat fewer hits than, say, Miami or Hatteras over time, because of the coastal shape.

That's all I'm saying.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Tens of thousands of Floridians will have their homeowners insurance canceled over the next few years, and when they try to replace it the rates will be much higher.

414 posted on 08/14/2004 10:50:29 AM PDT by js1138 (In a minute there is time, for decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse. J Forbes Kerry)
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To: Strategerist

My area (Galveston Bay) hasn't seen a big hit since Carla, and Carla came ashore well south of us. We had lots of little huricanes that are more of a pain in the but then a killer storm. Allica was a direct hit but it was a small cat 2 and it did a great deal of damnage. Topical storm Frances wiped out the Marina next to my house, I spend entire night loosen lines on my sailboat and fending off loose boats. A big cane will wipe us out, but it has been a long long time since we got a big cane.


417 posted on 08/14/2004 10:53:45 AM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
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