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CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)
NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


TOPICS: Breaking News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: bush43; charley; charlie; elections; fl; florida; hugelosses; hurricane; hurricanecharley; hurricanecharlie; jeb; jebbush; politics; weather
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To: liz44040

That is one nasty eyewall...

901 posted on 08/13/2004 12:53:16 PM PDT by nwctwx
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Comment #902 Removed by Moderator

To: Doe Eyes

I have lived on the coast most of my life, seen lots of little huricanes (never been in a big one). Everything changed after Andrew, now every storm is hyped to the max and it's real strenght is not reported. This one might in fact be a cat 4, but I have seen nothing to indecate this storm is even a huricane. Highest winds reporter, from strong side of storm 20 miles from eye center was 72 mph. I hope this storm is weaker then reported cause a real cat 4 is a killer.


903 posted on 08/13/2004 12:53:32 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
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To: dirtboy

right.

it looks like Orlando will actually get hit harder then Tampa, at least with regards to wind.


904 posted on 08/13/2004 12:53:33 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Pyro7480

No, I have Weather Underground open

Do you have a link to that?


905 posted on 08/13/2004 12:53:54 PM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: ContemptofCourt

I wonder if they will let people rebuild after this.....



No offense to anyone who lives down there, but of course they will. And guess who'll be paying for it? Ever read John Stossel's book?


906 posted on 08/13/2004 12:53:54 PM PDT by cwiz24
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To: oceanview

I saw one small storm surge come up the canal.. and it was amazing.. It does come fast even way up in the canals.


907 posted on 08/13/2004 12:54:06 PM PDT by grannie9 (There are three kinds of kids I dislike. Mine, yours and everyone else's.)
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To: commish

Shep sounds like he knows the area well - talking about the sea turtles and shelling.


908 posted on 08/13/2004 12:54:15 PM PDT by I still care (Have you heard about the Democrat cocktail? It's ketchup with a chaser.)
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To: Pyro7480

Pyro, could you give a link? Thanks much.


909 posted on 08/13/2004 12:54:23 PM PDT by Unknown Freeper
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To: Howlin
I have been following this thread off and on, since I have no TV today. I hope the damage is not as severe as it looks like it will be...this is my favorite area of Florida.

And I really hope everyone stays safe!

910 posted on 08/13/2004 12:54:48 PM PDT by Miss Marple
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To: jpsb
but I have seen nothing to indecate this storm is even a huricane

That's silly. Um, did they falsify the radar to make an eyewall appear?

911 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:00 PM PDT by eyespysomething ("Funding the American troops in combat should never be a complicated issue." D. Cheney 8-12-04)
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To: jpsb

Isn't 90mph on the coast considered a Cat 1 at least so far?


912 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:08 PM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: commish

Fox says strikes Sanibel near Port Charlotte.


913 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:09 PM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: rwfromkansas

Water temp was report on CBS affiliate in Tampa as 90 degrees. That is hot,very hot.


914 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:10 PM PDT by samantha (Don't panic, the adults are in charge)
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To: Howlin
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Adjust the setting at the top, and click on the area you want to zoom in on.

915 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:17 PM PDT by Pyro7480 (Sub tuum praesidium confugimus, sancta Dei Genitrix.... sed a periculis cunctis libera nos semper...)
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To: Unknown Freeper

See 915.


916 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:42 PM PDT by Pyro7480 (Sub tuum praesidium confugimus, sancta Dei Genitrix.... sed a periculis cunctis libera nos semper...)
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To: grannie9

oh dear...

heading right toward Punta Gorda.....now turning northeast toward them.


917 posted on 08/13/2004 12:55:55 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: jpsb

You must be living in a box somewhere. I'm watching the local news coverage in Fort Myers. It's clearly a hurricane. Maybe this isn't the thread for you.


918 posted on 08/13/2004 12:56:09 PM PDT by MineralMan (godless atheist)
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To: commish
Eye just passed south of Boca Grande, and is entering Charlotte Harbor. Surge is just heading straight into Charlotte Harbor now, all the Canal Villages are going to get swamped.

Yeah, it looks like the eye hit Caya Costa but the northern eyewall hit Boca Grande. There is a peninsula on jutting into the south side of Charlotte Harbor, the eye should clip that next.

Ft. Meyers isn't out of the woods yet - they will be getting some storm surge wrapping around the storm now.

919 posted on 08/13/2004 12:56:31 PM PDT by dirtboy (Forget Berger's socks - has ANYONE searched his skin folds for classified documents?)
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To: samantha

This is Tampa. Hot is our middle name. The heat index was 105 yesterday, and it's not a dry heat.


920 posted on 08/13/2004 12:56:34 PM PDT by I still care (Have you heard about the Democrat cocktail? It's ketchup with a chaser.)
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