CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)

NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

[Jeff400000]

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[ken5050]

Wasn't Camille the storm where 30 or so residents of an apartment complex, on the beach, were killed?....nothing was left ewxcept the concrete pad..

[maggief]

I talked to friends in Bonita Springs and Naples this morning. They hadn't made plans expecting the storm to miss them completely. I just lost the phone connection to Bonita Springs. (Bonita is between Naples and Ft. Myers.)

[CobaltBlue]

Can't remember how far inland Camille carried boats and big fuel tanks but several miles. Not seven, I don't think. I think 7 miles inland is safe from storm surge but the storm can still dump water and marine debris that it carries with it.

[Bahbah]

"It's been fun being a FReeper...:-("

Don't say that!

[ican'tbelieveit]

I saw her... showing what the storm surge would be at 7 and 10 feet. HELLO!!!!!!! Then justifying it by saying that there is no historical precedence for it to happen.

[musicman]

I'm in Daytona Beach. IMHO, if Bush makes it down here "post haste" after the storm has passed, BOTH of those dang dem FL Senators, Bill Nelson, and Bob Graham will try to take the credit for getting Bush here ASAP....

[dirtboy]

Can someone explain to me why the storm surge will be worse south of the eye?

The wind is going around the storm in a counter-clockwise motion. To the right of landfall, the winds are onshore and push the water up onto land, forming the storm surge. To the left of the landfall, the winds are offshore and push the water away. Once the storm moves further north, the winds swing around and cause a surge to the left of the landfall point, but that surge is not nearly as pronounced as the surge to the right of the landfall.

[nwctwx]

http://www.970wfla.com/jacor-common/streaming_disclaimer.html
(Currently: Live Audio News in Regards to Evacs/Etc.)

More streaming weather-related info:
http://www.irlp.net/
http://www.voipwx.net/ - Skywarn / Hurricane Spotter Network

Tampa Area News Stations:
http://www.wtsp.com - Live stream local news
http://www.wfts.com
http://www.wftx.com
http://www.baynews9.com - Live streaming radar
http://www.sptimes.com
http://www.naplesnews.com
http://www.news-press.com
http://www.herald-tribune.com


http://hurricanecity.com/

[dfwgator]

Wasn't Camille the storm where 30 or so residents of an apartment complex, on the beach, were killed?....

Yep, they were having a "Hurricane Party", Darwin Award winners all.

[Howlin]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack1&prodnav=none&pid=none

This storm is gonna jump!

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

We know the EPCOT "big silver ball" was built pre-Hurricane Andrew and new building codes.

I wouldn't think it would go airborne, however. The big problem here in Florida is there are so many tall, brittle trees. I suspect the most damage will be from flying projectiles.

[lelio]

Wasn't Camille the storm where 30 or so residents of an apartment complex, on the beach, were killed

30 Years Later, Camille's Legend Remains Firmly Etched in Gulf Coast Memory

By now the story is legend. On August 17, 1969, the residents of the Richelieu Apartments in Pass Christian, Miss., decided to throw a "hurricane party." A practice that had become commonplace throughout hurricane-affected regions, hurricane parties were, for Gulf Coast residents, an opportunity both to celebrate Mother Nature's fury and to collectively thumb their noses at the storms. But party-goers that muggy August night quickly discovered that Camille was unlike any storm they'd ever encountered.

[Dog]

I just lost the phone connection to Bonita Springs

Uh oh.......time to try to reach my brother.

[Pyro7480]

I'm in Daytona Beach.

My office's summer intern is on a flight from Reagan National to Daytona. I hope you guys don't get it too bad.

[jpsb]

Yup, but the storm surge is the bubble of water that rides in the low presure of vortex of a huricane. On the right hand side winds add to that bubble of water on the left hand side winds degrade it.

[ContemptofCourt]

OMG...couple hundred people on Sanibel riding out storm.

[hawkaw]

Listening to the TV it appears some 20 people are riding out the storm on the Island .... Yikes

[Pyro7480]

You should see the wide-angle GOES shot. It looks like Charley has feeder clouds stretching all the way back to almost Honduras!!!

[OXENinFLA]

I'm watching the news feed, Sanibel looks likes it's going to take a direct hit.

[commish]

HOpe they gave Police the names of thier next of kin.