Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
I know Sarasota County took it very seriously. Mandatory evacuation of the barrier islands yesteday. People were doing the usual stocking up; I've never seen so many stripped shelves at the grocery store. In my neighborhood, all the lawn stuff was put away.
I've had it with the media trying to point the finger of blame. Hurricanes are unpredictable. They issued warnings for the entire Gulf Coast of Florida. If people choose not to heed the warnings, what can be done?
Bush look-alike on Leno -- looks and sounds like him, making fun of him. Not that funny, IMO.
Looks like it to me to, from the JAX radar.
Huh?
I JUST heard that there were TWO people confirmed dead. It is sad when anybody loses their life, but the fact is that is a very small loss of life for such a powerful storm. We should be thankful it wasn't worse.
There are people on this thread RIGHT NOW with loved ones they can't get in touch with in a massively damaged area. Show some maturity.
You show some maturity. I lived through hurricane Andrew which was the worst storm to hit Florida. I saw the devastation and was lucky enough to have a home to go back to. The entire beach was washed up onto A1A.
Please don't try to lecture me on respect for storms or tell me that there is something WRONG with going to the beach to collect shells after a storm. OK?
OK enough, it is time to quit overspeculating and scaring people who have relatives down there. You have no more a clue than I or anyone else here what the real damage and casualties are, we just won't know much until morning. I saw the initial TV shots from Punta Gorda before night fell, and while there was some major damage, there were also plenty of intact structures visible when they were first showing their wide shots before they started staying with just the most dramatic damage shots. Also plenty of trees standing, which you did NOT see much of in the areas hardest hit in Andrew. Pretty much all the major damage reports heard from so far are along a relatively narrow line of where the eye moved up: barrier isles, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Arcadia, Hardee Co., Lake Wales, Kissimmee.
The storm deepened just as fast as I have ever seen one deepen. I strongly believe it was actually a Cat 5 at landfall. I expect to hear some bad things in the morning about the regions most affected.
Every model is east tonight with the track of the storm. It looks like it will still make secondary landfall somewhere near or north of the NC/SC border.
From that point, it's a tough call.
I would imagine it might re-emerge off the coast of Virginia and could pose a threat to Long Island or Cape Cod. The NHC has the track staying inland and the storm up near CT by late tomorrow evening. BUT, Charley has been consistently east of the NHC track thus far which is why I believe it may end up affecting Long Island-Cape Cod before exiting out to sea.
VIPIR is not a computer model as the term is generally used.
It's just a fancy-schmancy cool-looking 3D way to display radar info. It's not predictive.
I really have no idea (since I didn't watch the station) how it got perceived by you or portrayed by the station as a forecast model.
And it doesn't belong to that station specfically. It's a subscription product used by stations all over the country. They're being deceptive if they describe it as such, but it would not surprise me.
Excellent find.
Do you have a link to that?
His home destroyed, Paterson walked along Taylor Road with a dazed look and blood trickling from several head wounds. "Happy Friday the 13th," he said.
One thing I've seen several stations do, as well, is use the MM5 forecast model and portray it as "our" model, which it isn't.
May have to find some archived MM5 tracks....
I'm trying not to speculate, and you are right in many regards. I am basing my belief off many statistics I have looked at today. 145mph sustained winds do a lot more damage than what I have seen on TV. No more speculation for now.
I've heard a lot of discussion today about "the cone"........the NHC loves that thing.
Started with what?
House was built in 1979, by real contractors.
Thanks, that is informative.
You are incredibly annoying.
What's YOUR opinion about the possible effect on coastal Georgia? (and should I take a nap now or later?)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.