CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)

NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

[Jeff400000]

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[Netizen]

100 hurt when roof was torn off a nursing home. Wales???

[Wampus SC]

"And Earl is lurking out there...........YIKES!"

Same track as Charley. Yikes is right!

[orlop9]

Has anyone heard anything about Boca Grande? I know the bridge is closed, I would imagine the damage on the island was pretty bad.

[NautiNurse]

Charlotte Co. airport. Buidling collapsed with evacuees inside. Aircraft destroyed. One plane was anchored at both wings. All that was left of the plane were the wings. The body of the plane was missing.

[stlnative]

Lake Wales (50 miles east of Tampa) - 100 hurt

[LikeLight]

For about the last hour reports of deaths, even substantial numbers of deaths, have been coming in. Just to be charitable, I'll assume you hadn't known that. And, now that you do, I'll also assume you will change your tone ASAP. Thanks.

[Diddle E. Squat]

That Ross Cavitt reproter stressed that port Charlotte wasn't expecting a category 4 hurricane and that it was supposed to be a Tampa Bay hurricane, and so people only complete fools were not prepared.

What the heck do some people think a Hurricane WARNING means? They were under warning, any idiot knows that hurricanes are unpredicable. I'm sorry for the destruction, injuries, and death, but people have no one to blame for themselves, not the gov't that issued the evac orders and warnings. Yeah, I think the weather service dropped the ball on this a bit, not emphasizing enough the possibility of rapid intensification and unpredictable movement, but still.

[Netizen]

Some storage facility housed a boat and a Mercedes. The building was destroyed. Some guy told the reporter that he lost his house, his car and his business.

[ApesForEvolution]

I'm only aware thus far of 2 verified deaths, both in Punta Grande IIRC...

[nwctwx]

This was a radar Image taken right before the storm came in:

The 165 KT wind speed, on a normal day, would translate to 150-160mph winds winds.

Within the inner lines there was likely Category 4 to Category 5 wind. Hurricane Andrew showed us that these wind speeds will rip homes from their foundations. These types of winds will level whole towns. Punta Gorda is centered on that white dot within the inner most lines. It was in the middle of the strongest part of the eyewall of the storm, if anyone saw 160mph winds, that's the spot. The outer lines indicate areas affected by the outer eyewall. They all likely saw gusts to 100mph+.

I fear there is unthinkable devestation within the most affected region. I don't know if I want to go too much further into what may have happened right now.

[nunya bidness]

Keep it coming. I can't get their webfeed to work.

Thanks.

[2nd amendment mama]

I live in MB and I'm getting my Dad early in the am and we're outta here.....

[stlnative]

Punta Gorda, possible deaths in a mobile home park there.

[Amelia]

That Ross Cavitt reproter stressed that port Charlotte wasn't expecting a category 4 hurricane and that it was supposed to be a Tampa Bay hurricane, and so people were not prepared.

You can still find the reports from the News-Press about how the Lee County residents on the barrier islands were still trying to decide whether or not to obey the mandatory evacuations yesterday.

Anyone who lives on the coast *ought to know* these projections are not an exact science.

[sunshine state]

Sorry for the late reply. My son wanted the computer for a while. I'm in the South Gate area and east of 41. We (thankfully) didn't get much from this hurricane. We used to fish quite a bit in Charlotte Harbor 8-10 years ago. I'm really afraid of what kind of damage there is south of us.

[Amelia]

My first email to you was 1:24; it was a 4 then.

I had checked the weather pages just before noon, and they were expecting it to strengthen, but not THAT much!

[SC Swamp Fox]

Thanks for the update.

[Howlin]

I'm hoping for the best.

[Strategerist]

Your Tax dollars will end up rebuilding those homes in the same spot, most likely, too.

[Howlin]

Is there a link where we can listen??