Posted on 08/09/2004 5:28:52 PM PDT by RWR8189
CHICAGO (CBS 2) Illinois' senate race is heating up with both Democrat Barack Obama and new Republican candidate Alan Keyes in town pressing the flesh and warming up to voters.
The Republican candidate in this race may just be getting started, but according to an exclusive new CBS 2/Newsradio 780 poll, Keyes has a long way to go. 67 percent of Illinois voters prefer Democrat Obama; 28 percent would choose Keyes.
Keyes and his supporters were feeling the heat of the August sun as he announced for U.S. Senate at a crowded rally in Arlington Heights. Our exclusive voter opinion survey shows Obama generating another kind of heat.
Obama's lead in our CBS 2/Newsradio 780 Survey was most pronounced among women voters, 74 percent to 21percent for Keyes. Among men, it was 59 percent to 36 percent.
There was no surprise in strongly Democratic Chicago: 79 percent for Obama, 16 percent for Keyes.
But in the heavily Republican collar counties, it was Obama with 62 percent, Keyes with 34 percent. . Even downstate, 56 percent of those polled preferred Obama to 38 percent for Keyes. The results were almost the same in rural areas: 57 percent to 39 percent.
Virtually every Democrat we talked to favored Obama. Among independent voters, 64 percent chose Obama, 30 percent chose Keyes. Even among Republicans, 27 percent defected to Obama, 67 percent chose Keyes.
White voters went 62 percent to 32 percent for Obama; black voters by a margin of 89 percent to 10 percent.
The poll was conducted by Survey USA this past Friday and Saturday. It is accurate to within plus or minus four percentage points.
even the choir isn't voting for him right now. he has to find some cohesive message - he should run against the national Democrats, that is his only chance:
"why elect Obama to help the Dems block judges, thwart the war on terror, etc, etc"
He's got nothing to lose. if the election is about Illinois issues, he's a loser for sure.
Any other candidate would be right in the same area, ok Ditka might have gotten to 35%. The race was lost when Ryan was swirling the drain, if not before.
He's a fine man and all that, but his candidacy is a farce dreamed up by the biggest group of morons who ever walked upright -- the Illinois GOP leadership.
I think he'll move up after a few debates.
My current prediction is 35%. I'd be surprised if it was much higher, but I could also see it going a lot lower.
bump
Well, I think this is quite positive. The people of Chicago will get to see a black Republican in the flesh. That alone is worth Keyes getting into the race.
If they debate, I think we'll be in for a show. They are both powerful orators.
"...he should run against the national Democrats, that is his only chance: "
I wouldn't even think of voting for a senator from my state that ran solely on 'national' issues. That would IMHO be a sure losing strategy. Keyes should find out whats's important to the people of the state he wants to represent - anything else is just being a whore.
He's running this to be a talker. To state the conservative case as he does eloquently. His presence on the ticket will bring some additional conservatives to the polls that might have otherwise stayed home. His presence may have some effect on the Roman Catholic vote and certainly getting pro-life people to the polls. He may even attract some black voters who would like to spend their vote on a different kind of black politician to send a message.
that's exactly how Kerry defeated Bill Weld for the senate in Mass. he ran against Newt Gingrich - he won, he won the election in the last week with that strategy.
so what, you lose whether you get 25, 30 or 49% of the vote.
Whew you all in the DNC basement are working overtime. Hope you get paid correctly by Begala and Co.
I guess you have never heard of the term "packing up to move".
I like to indulge in wishful thinking too, but I live in Illinois. Running Alan Keyes here is like running Ted Kennedy in Texas.
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