Posted on 08/09/2004 8:25:06 AM PDT by Liz
Business Council gathering is told Bush will `need a miracle'
POINT CLEAR - Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.
" Kerry would win very handily," said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato, speaking at the BCA's governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances.
"He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
He said that if Bush hadn't ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.
" He bet his presidency on Iraq. But he's this close to losing the bet," said Sabato, holding a finger and thumb about an inch apart.
He said polls show support for the Iraq war has dropped from about 70 percent of Americans to about 45 percent or less.
Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, who joined dozens of legislators listening to Sabato's speech, said his national perspective offered an interesting contrast to the view from Alabama, which tends to vote heavily Republican for president.
"Apparently, Kerry is doing a lot better in a lot of areas in the country," Baxley said.
BCA President Billy Canary said he invited Sabato to speak because of his reputation for impartial and informed opinions. "He's the best in the country to give a national overview politically," Canary said.
Sabato said Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a liberal in the spirit of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.
Sabato called Kerry a cross between a funeral director and Lurch, the stiff butler on the old TV comedy "The Addams Family."
"Only in a year like this could John Kerry be elected. He can't connect with people. He's way to the left of the American mainstream," Sabato said.
"We're right on the verge of electing someone who I believe will be the most liberal president in American history, at least on social and cultural issues."
Sabato said Bush's best chance to win is to focus on "hot-button social issues" and try to paint Kerry as too liberal on issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion and the death penalty.
Sabato said Bush's father used such "wedge issues" to beat Dukakis in the 1988 presidential election. But that was a time of peace and prosperity, Sabato said. "Now you've got war and an economy that is rocky."
Bush in 2000 won 271 electoral votes to Democrat Al Gore's 267. The 2000 census, reflecting population shifts, raised the number of electoral votes in the states Bush won to 278. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Bush's problem, Sabato said, is that there are fewer states he can hope to take from the Democrats' win column from 2000 than states Kerry can hope to take from Bush's win column that year.
Bush's best chances may be in Iowa, with seven electoral votes, and Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes. Gore won both states by less than 1 percent over Bush. But Kerry now leads polls in both states by about 3 to 5 percentage points.
Sabato said Bush, despite early hopes, has little chance now of taking Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania from the Democrats' side.
Sabato said Kerry's best chance of raiding Bush's 2000 win column is in New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes. Bush won by 7,000 votes over Gore in 2000, but Kerry leads handily in the polls now.
Sabato also said:
West Virginia, with its five electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won West Virginia by a margin of 6.3 percent over Gore.
Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won the state by a margin of 537 votes over Gore.
Kerry has about a 50-50 chance of winning either Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, or Missouri, with 11 electoral votes. Bush won both states by margins of more than 3 percent in 2000.
Kerry might win Arkansas, with its six electoral votes. Bush won the state by 5.45 percent in 2000, but Sabato said former President Bill Clinton, an Arkansas native, likely will stump there for Kerry. Gore didn't seek Clinton's help there in 2000.
What kind of crack is this guy smoking ?
That's it exactly!
The key to this election is the Republican turnout. If conservatives, especially evanangelical Christians, turn out to vote, Kerry cannot win. Period. Hence, the attempt to depress Republican turnout by calling it all over in August.
If Bush would have won 45 states were it not for the Iraq War then how can Bush be blamed for "rushing" us into that war for political purposes?
Not sure of Sabato's angle on this - maybe to establish his credentials among the lib networks because he is perceived as a Fox talking head and he needs to show himself in a more employable ($$$) consultant cachet.
Whatever his motivation or justification, he is onto something that the Republicans better start addressing - that the Bush campaign is running one of the worst campaigns in history. All the crap you hear from them - that the resources are being concentrated in the battleground states, that we're waiting until after the convention, etc. are not in sync with the facts. I just came back from an extended stay in one of those battlegrounds, in one of the two cities that the campaign says it is concentrating its efforts, and the universal comment from the residents, including pro-Bush voters, is "When is Bush going to start fighting back against Kerry?" Thanks to pervasive Dem ads in this area (NEA and Unions), it is BUSH that is perceived as a flip-flop and weak on defense!!
Bush supporters are daydreaming if they think that they can turn that perception around after Labor Day. Sabato is right - Bush would lose big right now. He could turn it around, but it has to start now, not 3 weeks from now.
Now I fully expect a deluge of comments from freepers accusing me as a Dem plant, but if you don't own up to the danger the Bush Campaign has put this President in, you are whistling past the graveyard. Don't come after me - I'm not wasting a quarter billion dollars in an ineffective campaign - go after the Bush Campaign.
Anytime the local Gannett rag wants to influence public opinion towards a local dem, and away from a local Republican, they get commentary from Larry Sabato. Sabato is a shill.
Larry Sabato has a Cavalier attitude but his idea sounds Hokie.
Exactly! I know that the Gay Marriage Amendment will hit Oregon and Minnesota. These two states are already very close.
Also, for Sabato and Bill Schneider to claim Missouri for Kerry is truly daft! Kerry pulled all of his advertising out of there a month ago, knowing he couldn't turn that one around. Except for NH and maybe WV, Bush is a lot stronger in his 2000-win states than Kerry is with Gore's states. Overall vote counts mean nothing, and the Electoral College is looking better and better for Bush.
It is a referendum on the incumbant, but that means that W. gets a pass if people are comfortable with the economy and Iraq. Otherwise, they look at Kerry (for the first time) and decide if he's really better. I think that the debates are crucial this year. I think that Bush will mop up on Kerry then.
I told people a year ago that if GW ran strictly as a war president, which effectively he has, that he had to hope that the war went well. Whether it has or not is not really important because the Media has pounded the people for over a year with stories of how bad the war is going and people are starting to believe it. Now a President and his supporter(many on this site by the way) that have answered every tough question with "you know there is war going on" have a little problem. I agree with Sabato that the best GW can do between now and Nov. is to really push the social issues. That may be his best chance to turn things around. Most people vote based on issues that effect their lives in the here and now. Most people are not impacted personally by the war in Iraq, but they are impacted by educational issues, abortion, gay marriage, the economy etc., and the Reps. can pound the Rats on those issues if they have the kahunas to do so. My concern is that they don't have those kahunas. We will see.
"...the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances."
That's interesting. When was the last time Bush used the 'I'm a War President' in his speeches? That was a line used a lot maybe 3 - 4 months ago, but I;ve not seen/heard it for a long time. Has anyone else noticed the change?
I don't know about his record, but he is pretty impartial.
he used in just last week, but the context was that he didn't plan on having to face war as President, but the enemy attacked and we had to meet the challenge. it was an effective soundbite for him I thought.
Becasue the sheeple won't have to think for themselves and they'll believe anything and if they say he is ahead enough they sheeple won't even come out to vote. That'll be good for us. Go sheeples.
Trounced??? What parallel universe are you from?
... and if my Aunt Bobbie had b@lls, she would be my Uncle Bobby!
However, it's not surprising we find ourselves in this state after two years of the lying, endless major media and Democrat (but, I repeat myself) antiwar propaganda machine onslaught. It's Viet Nam deja vu all over again for these worthless t*rds.
On the other hand, who knows what sort of disaster we would have on our hands by now if Saddam was allowed to continue on in his ways? For sure, our War on Terror would be stilted and limping as the Dems would have had their full-court press on against that long ago instead of just ramping it up now. Iraq diverted them in another direction for a while. If for no other reason, it has been a success.
"...he used in just last week..."
I missed that, but the tone sure did change. It seemed he used to use it in a more 'chest-thumping' way.
Next year, I think. He won't be the first to be tried.
IF the 1988 election were held at this point, Dukakis would have won by 10 points. What a dumb commentary. Save it, Sabato (and get a new hairpiece, it looked silly on Brit's show)
sorry Larry, but you're wrong this time
"IIRC Sabato was saying the exact opposite about a month ago."
And he seemed to counter his own opinion about an hour and a half ago on Fox News Live.
He's almost as bad as kerry when it comes to flip flopping.
I don't know, but mid-October he pegged it at: House +2 GOP, Senate: +1 GOP.
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