"Sabato called Kerry a cross between a funeral director and Lurch, the stiff butler on the old TV comedy "The Addams Family." 
Posted on 08/09/2004 8:25:06 AM PDT by Liz
Business Council gathering is told Bush will `need a miracle'
POINT CLEAR - Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.
" Kerry would win very handily," said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato, speaking at the BCA's governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances.
"He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
He said that if Bush hadn't ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.
" He bet his presidency on Iraq. But he's this close to losing the bet," said Sabato, holding a finger and thumb about an inch apart.
He said polls show support for the Iraq war has dropped from about 70 percent of Americans to about 45 percent or less.
Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, who joined dozens of legislators listening to Sabato's speech, said his national perspective offered an interesting contrast to the view from Alabama, which tends to vote heavily Republican for president.
"Apparently, Kerry is doing a lot better in a lot of areas in the country," Baxley said.
BCA President Billy Canary said he invited Sabato to speak because of his reputation for impartial and informed opinions. "He's the best in the country to give a national overview politically," Canary said.
Sabato said Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a liberal in the spirit of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.
Sabato called Kerry a cross between a funeral director and Lurch, the stiff butler on the old TV comedy "The Addams Family."
"Only in a year like this could John Kerry be elected. He can't connect with people. He's way to the left of the American mainstream," Sabato said.
"We're right on the verge of electing someone who I believe will be the most liberal president in American history, at least on social and cultural issues."
Sabato said Bush's best chance to win is to focus on "hot-button social issues" and try to paint Kerry as too liberal on issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion and the death penalty.
Sabato said Bush's father used such "wedge issues" to beat Dukakis in the 1988 presidential election. But that was a time of peace and prosperity, Sabato said. "Now you've got war and an economy that is rocky."
Bush in 2000 won 271 electoral votes to Democrat Al Gore's 267. The 2000 census, reflecting population shifts, raised the number of electoral votes in the states Bush won to 278. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Bush's problem, Sabato said, is that there are fewer states he can hope to take from the Democrats' win column from 2000 than states Kerry can hope to take from Bush's win column that year.
Bush's best chances may be in Iowa, with seven electoral votes, and Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes. Gore won both states by less than 1 percent over Bush. But Kerry now leads polls in both states by about 3 to 5 percentage points.
Sabato said Bush, despite early hopes, has little chance now of taking Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania from the Democrats' side.
Sabato said Kerry's best chance of raiding Bush's 2000 win column is in New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes. Bush won by 7,000 votes over Gore in 2000, but Kerry leads handily in the polls now.
Sabato also said:
West Virginia, with its five electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won West Virginia by a margin of 6.3 percent over Gore.
Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won the state by a margin of 537 votes over Gore.
Kerry has about a 50-50 chance of winning either Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, or Missouri, with 11 electoral votes. Bush won both states by margins of more than 3 percent in 2000.
Kerry might win Arkansas, with its six electoral votes. Bush won the state by 5.45 percent in 2000, but Sabato said former President Bill Clinton, an Arkansas native, likely will stump there for Kerry. Gore didn't seek Clinton's help there in 2000.
I agree that it's a little early to make a call on the race, but this isn't "wishful thinking" by Sabato. He's not a liberal. Having seen him on TV and read alot of his stuff over the years, he's not a Dem mouthpiece.
Your team is up by 3 runs in the middle of the seventh. If the game ended now, you'd win. Makes sense.
Yes, but if the election hadn't been stolen, he would had won. Remember... Votes not counted, Supreme Court handing Bush the election, disenfranchisement, ALL that stuff!
Yuk, Yuk, Yuk!!
As the python squeezes the life out of the insurgents, Iraq will look better and better to the American electorate, and I think a huge number of people who in April were fed up with Bush over Iraq are going to reconsider by November, particularly given how seedy JF'nKerry is starting to look...
Sabato always has some interesting perspectives. One of the pieces of analysis that gets overlooked is the electoral vote scenario has changed since 2000. The Bush states have added electoral votes due to census changes and the Gore states lost votes. Too many of the analyses have Bush losing if, for example, New Hampshire goes to the Dem column. That is incorrect analysis because Bush would pick up more than enough electoral votes in Texas to offset that.
Bush does have his work cut out for him. However he has the better part of three months to make his case to the American people. Irag is not all gloom and doom as the American press likes to characterize the situation.
The more people see Kerry and Bush side by side as leaders and on the issues the more Kerry will begin to fade in the polls. If Bush has built a lead going into the Republican Convention then Kerry will have an uphill battle.
Because they are rooting for Kerry. Call it a campaign contribution.
Yep
He cannot tell his boat is sinking,
So buoyed is he with wishful thinking.
Sabato said Bush, despite early hopes, has little chance now of taking Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania from the Democrats' side.
Minneapolis is Minnesota's most liberal town. The Uptown neighborhood is Minneapolis' most liberal neighborhood.
I went to a movie at the Uptown Theater (the area's foreign/arts film theater - still does midnight showings of cult films).
This was the weekend of the Uptown Art Fair, and the streets were packed.
I parked in the ramp of a neighborhood shopping area, and watched for bumper stickers. There were zero Kerry stickers in the ramp. One for Howard Dean. Six for Bush/Cheney.
The radical left on the street may be backing Kerry. But the folks who can afford to pay for parking aren't.
Because their Little Red Book tells them that if they repeat a lie often enough it becomes "true".
Bush can't win, so all Republicans might as well stay home, like they did in the Panhandle when Brokaw(spit) and company called the state for gore.
Sabato also supposedly called 2002 as a GOP year, but I'm looking for something concrete that did not cover both ways.
"Sabato called Kerry a cross between a funeral director and Lurch, the stiff butler on the old TV comedy "The Addams Family."
Bingo! Sabato has been in the beltway way too long and has no idea what people in the rest of the Country are thinking. His analysis has been flawed for sometime as he sounds just like the rest of the DC Beltway on the TV. They don't have clue about Middle America or they like to call us -- "flyover country!."
This guys a bit daft.
TO win, Kerry has to hold every state that Bush lost in 2000 and add at least one more... and its just not panning out that way at the moment.
When Gay Marriage (on the ballot in at least 10 states if I am not mistaken this fall) comes into play, and the continued victory against terror continues Kerry has nothing but the old liberal bastions.. and that won't carry the day.
Sorry I see Bush my at least 4-5 points by Nov 2 at this point.
And that is why Bush will win.
Elitist libs who run the DNC are all going to lose big!! THe DNC is a NAtional Party No More. The people of this country are not going to throw a war President who has kept this country safe since 9/11 out of office. THere is one thing that will probably happen because they can't quit after four years of blasting away at President Bush. They will try to impeach him over the prison abuses in Iraq. The N ew York Times will run the show and is holding this back for now because they know Bush will win.
IIRC Sabato was saying the exact opposite about a month ago.
Don't tell me Sabato is becoming a flip-flopper like Kerry.
Because a lot of "undecideds" vote for whoever is perceived to be the eventual winner. Convince them that your man has it in the bag, and the game is almost over,.
bump
Obviously the dead heat national race and the lack of a Kerry bounce after his convention have convinced the brilliant Sabato that Bush is going to lose ...
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