Gallup: Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce (W 50%, Kerry 46%)

Gallup ^ | 8/1/04

[ambrose]

SOURCE:	Gallup Poll News Service
CONTACT INFORMATION:	Media Relations 1-202-715-3030 Subscriber Relations 1-888-274-5447 World Headquarters 901 F Street Washington, DC 20004

August 01, 2004 Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce Bush slightly ahead among likely voters, Kerry among registered voters by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the Democratic Convention in Boston, finds that the presidential race remains close, with President George W. Bush receiving 50% support among likely voters, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 47%. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry leads 50% to 47%.

Compared with the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted before the convention (July 19-21), this post-convention poll shows that among likely voters, Kerry's support is actually two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points (the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups).

For neither group of voters does the slight change in voter preferences, compared with a poll conducted shortly before the convention, favor Kerry. All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95% certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry.

Presidential Contest Pre- and Post-Democratic National Convention
	Kerry- Edwards

[olde north church]

I recently had a conversation with a very apolitical individual who works for the government on the county level:
Shock #1: She received a Kerry campaign postcard requesting cash. She ripped it up said she wouldn't send a penny and wouldn't vote for him after watching his speech.
Shock #2: The people she works with AFSCME (supported Dean) members all said, although they don't like him overall (domestic policies, I guess) they will be voting for Bush based upon his leadership qualities on the war on terror 9/11.
My teeth nearly fell out of my mouth. I have been to political dinners with these people, it's not easy being the token elephant in a room full of jackasses, but if that's thinking on the grassroots level. It's not a good sign for kerry.
http://www.trentonrevolution.com/a_real_soldier.html
quick link
New Opinion Piece - Kerry War Record

[fizziwig]

"Could be, but that "Reporting for Duty" was pretty effin stupid"


BINGO!

[NeonKnight]

Great list of things that will be remembered...and we haven't even gotten to the debates yet.

[fizziwig]

Geez that photo of JFK junior saluting at his father's funeral really brought back some meloncholic memories.

Geez that photo of John effin Kerry "reporting for duty" made me vomit.....again!

[NeonKnight]

There are a great many people who will vote for Bush...but they are afraid to admit it.

The people that will vote against Bush are very loud, and will let you know they are going to vote against him. In fact, they will get mad at you if you don't agree with them.

The conservative Democrats that will vote for Bush will remain silent....and there are a lot of them.

[Sea2ShiningSea]

Stopping by Wendy's for a photo shoot and haveing expesive gourmet food waiting in the bus.....is their two Americas in action.

SPOT ON!

[edwin hubble]

"Stopping by Wendy's for a photo shoot and haveing expesive gourmet food waiting in the bus.....is their two Americas in action."


That move is right out of the Clinton playbook.

[NeonKnight]

test

[goldstategop]

I guess they were stunned by the results and felt they had to massage them. This isn't what they were expecting to see out of the Democratic Convention. They load the polls with as many Democrats as they can and it isn't helping. What they'll do is try to bury the bad news fast.

[goldstategop]

"After Democratic conventions, the Republican candidate normally loses about five percentage points, Gallup said."

What a shocker. President Bush is actually in the lead if their own poll is to believed. No wonder they're trying to figure out why that hasn't happened to this President. He should be behind now by 10 percentage points and instead he's ahead of Kerry by 3 percentage points. Squawk! The sky IS falling!!!

[Homer_J_Simpson]

The conservative Democrats that will vote for Bush will remain silent....and there are a lot of them.

I just heard an evening news story on KPFA Berkeley (Radio Hamas). Kerry "still supports universal health care." If the MSM lets that get out it may make an impression on wavering Democrats. Socialized medicine is still a non-starter in this country.

[hoosiermama]

DId you see the post last week; the head of the Insurance COmmission in Mississippi (D) came out in support of "W" I imagine many medical/insurance people are not impressed with Kerry's choice of VP...But we'll 'hear' about it in November.

[Salvation]

Is Gallup redoing their poll like USAToday is?

Friday night I predicted a four to five point bounce for Bush by the end of the weekend/Monday. Looks like I was on target!

WooHoo!

[doug9732]

After watching Carter, Clinton, Sharpton, and Jackson make speeches, it doesn't matter what the candidate himself says. I won't vote for that party.

[Gorons]

[deport]

Is Gallup redoing their poll like USAToday is?

---

Gallup is the pollster for the USAToday/CNN poll........

[Waco]

11/01/04 eadline: "Will kerry blow queer vote?" 11/03/04 Headline: "Kerry blows queer vote! Loses anyway!" Hee Hee Hee

[Paleo Conservative]

Musta been his hamster sucking story that turned people off.

I bet it was really a gerbil not a hamster.

[madisonjr]

Probably most relevant info in Gallup poll:


Kerry certain/Bush certain
2004 Jul 30-31 42/45
2004 Jul 19-21 43/40
2004 May 21-23 42/40
2004 Mar 26-28 40/44
2004 Mar 5-7 45/38

Interpretation: Since March, three percent of people saying they were CERTAIN to vote for Kerry ARE NO LONGER CERTAIN! Do you realize how hard it is to persuade people who were certain to change their minds? That's the power of information, specifically the truth.

Simultaneously, Bush gained 7 percentage points of people who were certain to vote for him. In fact, certain numbers went from net 7 Kerry to net 3 Bush.

W's got the MO!

Now we just have to keep it going. I think one of the most powerful tools we have is to get copies of "Unfit for Command" in as many hands as possible. And no, I have no financial interest in the book. It's just highly credible people calling Kerry a fraud. Can't get better than that!