Posted on 08/01/2004 11:58:36 AM PDT by ejdrapes
Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention USA Today
No wonder half of balloons refused to come down. That did it!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Brad was busy with a Primary Election during the Dem Convention.
But he WILL face Tom Coburn this fall, the price for US Senate in Oklahoma has just gone up!!!
For those of use who know Kerry well, the best thing the Bushies can do, is keep Kerry on camera talking. His wife is an extra bonus for the Bushies.- tom
When's the last time he even left the Governor's Mansion?
(Okay, okay, he's been out for a couple photo ops...)
Odd as it may seem, the "blue collar" Christian social gun-toting no stem cells please conservative and the un-blue collar never used guns and never will I want stem cells agnostic neocon moderate are probably about the two firmest votes for Bush on this site. I want Bush to tank Kerry anyway he can. It appears that at least two pieces of the Bush coalition are firmly in tact. LOL.
My wild guess, is that assuming Bush gives one of his better speeches, he gets a 5% bounce after the GOP convention, and leads Kerry by 3% after the GOP convention, and then struggles to hold onto it, with the debates really being the key factor here (assuming events in Iraq and the economy stay reasonably on par). These debates are really more important than debates in other cycles, since so many voters have doubts about both men, and are cross conflicted. It is clear so far, that few of those cross conflicts have been resolved, and why should they until more information is available. JMO.
This is from the Newsweek you mentioned, "To this day Kerry's crewmen, with one or two exceptions, seem to adore him."
Yeah they're all in heavy denial mode at DU. Any negative news for their side and it's either a lie or the pollsters have been bought off by Karl Rove. What idiots.
"... debates are really more important than debates in other cycles,
since so many voters have doubts about both men, and are cross conflicted..."
- - -
The population is now nearly evenly divided between the
socialists and the non-socialists.
The percentage of people who claim to be "undecided" is
very small, and those people are either liars or imbeciles.
There is not enough of them to spend any resources on to
try to convert.
The election will not be about converting, it will be about
motivation. The ONLY thing that will matter in November
will be turnout. The win will go to the party that is able
to mobilize their supporters to actually get of their asses
and go to the polls.
"hoping for a pleasant and maybe unexpected surprise"
I am increasingly confident that this election will not be close. I finally figured out why. Here's why.
A major chunk of Kerry's base is people angry at Bush. They appear to pollsters as committed, because they are angry. But their anger is unreasoning and based largely on falsehoods. Take away the anger and they have no motivation particularly to stay with Kerry or to turn out to vote for him.
It may seem counter-intuitive, but people mostly don't like being angry, and will be more open to reasons to calm down than to reasons to switch candidates.
When people learn the truth, they will calm down...a lot. Some of course are beyond reason, but we only have to reach a modest percentage to turn this into a breakout.
I'm putting my faith in the Bush pro's that they understand this, and will work to defuse the anger, not with retaliatory bashing, per se, but with the truth of the matters at issue.
Working off the 911 Commission, the senate intel report, etc, as well as eroding Kerry's false-front by publicizing his Senate record, it will be eminently doable to put things back into a more realistic focus. When that happens, and some of the anger dissipates, Kerry is a goner.
He will try to fight back, of course, but with what? They've used all their lies, and the effect is wearing thin. Feeding anger and hate is Kerry's only hope, and it just won't last till November. GW's constancy and even temper speak more loudly every day, even as F-911 fades away, and the spew of anti-Bush books now begin to gather dust in the discount bins.
Pundits on both sides are saying that events will determine this election. I thought so too for awhile but I don't now, except to aid the President. As the anniversary of 9/11 approaches, on the heels of our convention, I can think of no event which has an upside for Kerry.
Consider, Bush can run by focussing on the real enemy, the terrorists, while Kerry has to run by trying to make Bush the enemy. How far can he get with that task? About where he is now--his high-water mark. It's all slippage and trying to shore up crumbling foundations for Kerry now.
Great closer, they say--but he isn't running against a moderate now, and this isn't Massachusetts.
And we have barely begun to fight. As Dennis Miller might say, The Republicans are going to bring their heavy artillery to bear--they're about to wheel out Dick Cheney!
LOL
FR management should drop its ban on links. These people are just so much fun to watch when they're having a bad hair day.
Precisely. We should spread the good news. hehehe
I go there for an uplifting experience.
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