Replies

My wild guess, is that assuming Bush gives one of his better speeches, he gets a 5% bounce after the GOP convention, and leads Kerry by 3% after the GOP convention, and then struggles to hold onto it, with the debates really being the key factor here (assuming events in Iraq and the economy stay reasonably on par). These debates are really more important than debates in other cycles, since so many voters have doubts about both men, and are cross conflicted. It is clear so far, that few of those cross conflicts have been resolved, and why should they until more information is available. JMO.

These debates are really more important than debates in other cycles, since so many voters have doubts about both men, and are cross conflicted.

Yes most definitely a different ball game this time around. I still think the outcome will depend upon whether Kerry can convince enough voters that he is CinC material... He's sucking hind teat on that one badly and I don't think he can win without major improvements in that area... Thus his big emphasis upon his military career, etc.

Some on this forum pooh pooh the idea of it being almost an evenly split vote and strongly factionalized. With as many polls showing it that way I have to think it's basically true... Either you like the candidate and support him strongly or you dislike him and oppose him strongly. The swing in this thing could come from the people that normally don't vote that often but see a need to express an opinion this time around.... Hopefully for Bush and the WOT issue.

"... debates are really more important than debates in other cycles,
since so many voters have doubts about both men, and are cross conflicted..."
- - -
The population is now nearly evenly divided between the
socialists and the non-socialists.

The percentage of people who claim to be "undecided" is
very small, and those people are either liars or imbeciles.
There is not enough of them to spend any resources on to
try to convert.

The election will not be about converting, it will be about
motivation. The ONLY thing that will matter in November
will be turnout. The win will go to the party that is able
to mobilize their supporters to actually get of their asses
and go to the polls.