USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup: No boost for Kerry after convention [Bush/Cheney 50% Kerry/Edwards 46%]

August 1, 2004

[GoMonster]

They are so distraught with the results they added and extra day and night tonight. They are hoping maybe it may change.

[Netizen]

Hmm lost 5 points, perhaps they should have another convention? lol

[BIGLOOK]

My favorite Daschle opening is " I'm very disturbed ". It's the only utterance he's made that I agree with.

[gilliam]

Sorry, the colors didn't transfer over. RCP stands for RealClear Politics, it is the website that the info comes from. The owner averages recent polls, in this case the last 3 polls. The webpage is here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

[syriacus]

[Daschle] is deeply saddened!

Well that's a step up from embarrassing himself by slipping on his own venom.

When he was trying to mock debaters who supported a National Missile Defense program, he said they should know the issue isn't rocket science.--

Bush makes headway with missile defense.

"This isn't rocket science here,"

Tom Daschle, June 8, 2001,
a few days after regaining his position as Senate Majority leader.

Transcript of Daschle's embarrassing press conference.

[gilliam]

funny, I don't remember our campaign buttons being numbered? :) Yes, a lot of water under the bridge since my college years.

[AmishDude]

Cast your votes:

• Negabounce
• Concrete Cat Bounce
• Schrodinger's Cat Bounce

[deport]

What do you expect to see for President Bush after the GOP Convention based upon the data that says there aren't many undecides and that maybe 90% or so are strongly committed to their candidate now...... any guesses?

Here's some info on previous convention bounces....

Convention Bounces
			Net Change
2000 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Gore -5	Bush +11
2000 Dem. Bounce	Gore +10	Bush -9	Gore +19
1996 Rep. Bounce	Dole +8	Clinton -7	Dole +15
1996 Dem. Bounce	Clinton +4	Dole -1	Clinton +5
1992 Dem. Bounce	Clinton +14	Bush -16	Clinton +30
1992 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Clinton -10	Bush +16
1988 Dem. Bounce	Dukakis +7	Bush -4	Dukakis +11
1988 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Dukakis -5	Bush +11
1984 Dem. Bounce	Mondale +9	Reagan -7	Mondale +16
1984 Rep. Bounce	Reagan +4	Mondale -4	Reagan +8
1980 Rep. Bounce	Reagan +8	Carter -5	Reagan +13
1980 Dem. Bounce	Carter +10	Reagan -7	Carter +17
1976 Dem. Bounce	Carter +9	Ford -7	Carter +16
1976 Rep. Bounce	Ford +4	Carter -3	Ford +7
1972 Dem. Bounce	McGovern 0	Nixon +3	McGovern -3
1972 Rep. Bounce	Nixon +7	McGovern -1	Nixon +8
1968 Rep. Bounce	Nixon +5	Humphrey -9	Nixon +14
1968 Dem. Bounce	Humphrey +2	Nixon -2	Humphrey +4

For consistency, these results are all among registered voters. 1992-2000 polls are from ABC News; 1968-88 polls are by Gallup. Earlier polls weren't done frequently enough to track the convention bounce reliably.

[AmishDude]

The McGovern voters must have thought they were being monitored by the CIA. No wonder he lost. Numbered buttons, indeed.

[InvisibleChurch]

i hope that Bush destroys the democrats

[hershey]

Uh, no. Although last week's cover with Kerry's face unraveling like a ribbon might have been an omen for his campaign.

[gilliam]

The McGovern voters must have thought they were being monitored by the CIA.

No, but we KNEW we were being monitored by the FBI, and a few years later we found out we were right!

[syriacus]

1972 was McGovern

Yes. I remember..

Friends of mine who had hated Nixon previously called me long distance to beg me to vote for Nixon instead of McGovern.

[Betaille]

"based upon the data that says there aren't many undecides and that maybe 90% or so are strongly committed to their candidate now"

That is the media spin in a nutshell. However, undecideds are always a relatively small group. In the past, Convention bounces have been strongly based on decided voters becoming undecided or actually switching sides. This year is not as different as the media wants you to think. They are covering up Kerry's disasterous "no opinions allowed" convention flop. Bush's bounce depends on how well he's doing before the convention. If he's ahead, it will probably be a relatively small bounce, if he's behind it will probably be bigger. Either way though, he will get a bounce, unlike Kerry. This convention was 4-days of reconfirming to the american people that Kerry has no core beleifs.

[Joee]

I pray that this poll is right. I was getting really down!

[Howlin]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1182704/posts

[Paladin2]

He also used claim to be troubled before he seemed to have settled on being saddened.

He definately is troubled.

[deport]

What's your guess on the Bush bounce after the GOP Convention.....

[chiller]

If Democratic candidates don't start separating themselves from him quickly, there will be a massacre in November.

Robert Novak reports today: Most Democratic Senate candidates in states carried overwhlemingly by President Bush in 2000 were no shows in Boston.

Rep. Chris John of Louisiana was a rare candidate for a closely contested Senate seat in a conservative state to show up at the Democratic National Convention. Polls show John running in a tight battle for second place to make the runoff in Louisiana's non-party election. Other Democratic Senate candidates running in states overwhelmingly carried by George W. Bush in 2000 were nowhere near Boston: Former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles, South Carolina Education Commissioner Inez Tenenbaum, Erskine Bowles of North Carolina and Rep. Brad Carson of Oklahoma.

[chiller]

Polls are polls, but delicious nonetheless.