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What do you expect to see for President Bush after the GOP Convention based upon the data that says there aren't many undecides and that maybe 90% or so are strongly committed to their candidate now...... any guesses?

Here's some info on previous convention bounces....

Convention Bounces
			Net Change
2000 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Gore -5	Bush +11
2000 Dem. Bounce	Gore +10	Bush -9	Gore +19

1996 Rep. Bounce	Dole +8	Clinton -7	Dole +15
1996 Dem. Bounce	Clinton +4	Dole -1	Clinton +5

1992 Dem. Bounce	Clinton +14	Bush -16	Clinton +30
1992 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Clinton -10	Bush +16

1988 Dem. Bounce	Dukakis +7	Bush -4	Dukakis +11
1988 Rep. Bounce	Bush +6	Dukakis -5	Bush +11

1984 Dem. Bounce	Mondale +9	Reagan -7	Mondale +16
1984 Rep. Bounce	Reagan +4	Mondale -4	Reagan +8

1980 Rep. Bounce	Reagan +8	Carter -5	Reagan +13
1980 Dem. Bounce	Carter +10	Reagan -7	Carter +17

1976 Dem. Bounce	Carter +9	Ford -7	Carter +16
1976 Rep. Bounce	Ford +4	Carter -3	Ford +7

1972 Dem. Bounce	McGovern 0	Nixon +3	McGovern -3
1972 Rep. Bounce	Nixon +7	McGovern -1	Nixon +8

1968 Rep. Bounce	Nixon +5	Humphrey -9	Nixon +14
1968 Dem. Bounce	Humphrey +2	Nixon -2	Humphrey +4

For consistency, these results are all among registered voters. 1992-2000 polls are from ABC News; 1968-88 polls are by Gallup. Earlier polls weren't done frequently enough to track the convention bounce reliably.

"based upon the data that says there aren't many undecides and that maybe 90% or so are strongly committed to their candidate now"

That is the media spin in a nutshell. However, undecideds are always a relatively small group. In the past, Convention bounces have been strongly based on decided voters becoming undecided or actually switching sides. This year is not as different as the media wants you to think. They are covering up Kerry's disasterous "no opinions allowed" convention flop. Bush's bounce depends on how well he's doing before the convention. If he's ahead, it will probably be a relatively small bounce, if he's behind it will probably be bigger. Either way though, he will get a bounce, unlike Kerry. This convention was 4-days of reconfirming to the american people that Kerry has no core beleifs.