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Electoral College Question

Posted on 07/30/2004 3:41:11 PM PDT by Mean Spirited Conservative

Pardon my ignorance, but if neither Bush nor Kerry received 270 electoral votes the House of Reps votes for president. But each state's delegation has only one vote. Does anyone know the breakdown for how many state delegations have a Republican majority and how many have a Dem majority?


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: electoralcollege
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1 posted on 07/30/2004 3:41:12 PM PDT by Mean Spirited Conservative
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative
I don't have that answer, but...for that to happen other candidates would have to get electoral votes. And that ain't gonna happen.
2 posted on 07/30/2004 3:44:23 PM PDT by sharktrager (The road to hell is paved with good intentions. And the paving contractor lives in Chappaqua.)
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative

At the time of the 2000 election, 31 delegations had Republican majorities.


3 posted on 07/30/2004 3:45:43 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Kerry and Edwards aren't catching on. Hope is on the way!)
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative

Since the Senate would pick the VP in this situation, if the Dems take over the Senate in '04, we could have a Bush/Edwards White House.


4 posted on 07/30/2004 3:47:36 PM PDT by So Cal Rocket (Fabrizio Quattrocchi: "Adesso vi faccio vedere come muore un italiano")
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To: sharktrager
other candidates would have to get electoral votes

Not so.

269 - 269 would do it.

5 posted on 07/30/2004 3:48:02 PM PDT by Republic If You Can Keep It
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To: sharktrager

There are 538 electoral votes.

They can be split evenly at 269 without electing a president.


6 posted on 07/30/2004 3:52:05 PM PDT by edwin hubble
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To: sharktrager

There are 538 electoral votes, divided by 2= 269.
You HAVE to have 270 electoral votes to win.
Equally divided, won't happen.


7 posted on 07/30/2004 3:53:51 PM PDT by LadyPilgrim (Sealed my pardon with His blood, Hallelujah!!! What a Savior!!!)
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To: Republic If You Can Keep It
And the mathematical combinations that would produce that are few, and the odds are long.

Realistically, the only way it happens is if a viable third party emerges.
8 posted on 07/30/2004 3:53:57 PM PDT by sharktrager (The road to hell is paved with good intentions. And the paving contractor lives in Chappaqua.)
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative

In New England, Kerry would win Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Bush would win New Hampshire and Connecticut. 4-2 for Kerry.

In the Mid-Atlantic, Kery would win New York, New Jersey, and Maryland. Bush would win Pennsylvania and Delaware. 3-2 for Kerry

In the Midwest, Bush would win Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, and Iowa. The two candidates would be in a tie in Wisconsin and Minnesota. 5-2 for Bush.

In the South, Bush would win Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana. Kerry would win Tennessee and Arkansas. 9-2 for Bush.

In the West, Bush would win Texas (likely), Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Kerry would win North and South Dakota. 12-2 for Bush.

In the Pacific West, Kerry would win California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii. Bush would in Alaska. 4-1 for Kerry.

So, add it up. 31 delegations for Bush. 17 for Kerry. 2 would be tied. Obviously a couple states might switch depending on what some RINOs and DINOs would do. Most likely Connecticut and Tennessee.

(I did this off the top of my head. Any mistakes are mine, and I apologize in advance.)


9 posted on 07/30/2004 3:54:07 PM PDT by republicanwizard
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To: sharktrager

Yeah, but I didn't think that Florida, with its huge population, would come down to 500 votes either.


10 posted on 07/30/2004 3:55:06 PM PDT by republicanwizard
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative

Thank our Lord we are not a true Democracy.


11 posted on 07/30/2004 4:00:12 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: sharktrager

This actually isn't all that unlikely in this election.

If Nevada and New Hampshire or New Hamphire and West Virginia break for Kerry and the 2000 map stays the same, its 269-269 tie. There are many other scenarios where this is a possibility, but those two seem the most likely to me.

But of course the wild card could be Maine. If Bush pulls off a win in one of the congressional districts it would tip him to 270.


12 posted on 07/30/2004 4:02:22 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: sharktrager
And the mathematical combinations that would produce that are few, and the odds are long.

Because Maine and Nebraska can split their electoral college, it's more likely than you think.

13 posted on 07/30/2004 4:04:25 PM PDT by Right Wing Professor
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative

Here is the 269-269 scenario:

Bush: Tx, Ok, La, Ms,Al,Ga,Fl,SC,NC,Tn,Va,Ky, Oh, In, Mo, Ar, Ks, Ne, SD, ND, Co, Wy, Mt, ID,Ut, Nv, Az, Ak.

F'in: the rest plus DC.

The Pres would be elected by the new House--each state alowed one vote. Assuming the state balances stay the same: 30 states Republican controlled; 15 states dem controlled; 4 states split; Vermont has one rep--an independent. The new Senate would select the new VP.


14 posted on 07/30/2004 4:11:48 PM PDT by Founding Father
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To: Founding Father
Vermont has one rep--an independent

Any chance we could get Bernie Sanders to vote for President Bush? Any chance that I'll hit two different states' lotteries on the same date?

15 posted on 07/30/2004 4:55:16 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (Sandy, is that a top secret document in your pants or are you just happy to see me?)
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To: So Cal Rocket
Since the Senate would pick the VP in this situation, if the Dems take over the Senate in '04, we could have a Bush/Edwards White House.

"Take over"? Why bother, they already control it.

16 posted on 07/30/2004 5:38:04 PM PDT by Sloth (We have to support RINOs like Specter; their states are too liberal to elect someone like Santorum.)
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To: Mean Spirited Conservative
The current breakdown in the 108th Congress is as follows:
30 State Delegations - Republican
15 State Delegations - Democrat
 1 State Delegation  - Socialist (would vote for Democrat)
 4 State Delegations - Tied between Republican and Democrat

These are the current numbers for the 108th Congress, but it will be the newly elected 109th Congress which would elect the President if the job fell in their laps...

The 'tied' States are Minnesota, Mississippi, Texas and Wisconsin. Texas is currently tied at 16-16, but by the 109th Congress which is seated in January of 2005, the Republicans should have at least 31 State Delegations since the Texas re-districting will finally have more Republicans than Democrats representing Texas. These numbers in the House of Representatives will take care of any potential business that the Electoral College would throw their way for the selection of President, which means that Bush would be re-elected.

dvwjr

17 posted on 07/30/2004 5:42:24 PM PDT by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr

As a note, the Constitution requires that a majority of the States (voting as Delegations with a single vote) are required to elect a President, which today means that you must have 26 of the 50 votes...


dvwjr


18 posted on 07/30/2004 5:45:39 PM PDT by dvwjr
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To: So Cal Rocket
if the Dems take over the Senate in '04, we could have a Bush/Edwards White House.

I can think of a former First Lady who would not like that.

19 posted on 07/30/2004 5:46:51 PM PDT by Chesterbelloc
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To: dvwjr



Article II

Section 1. The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his office during the term of four years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same term, be elected, as follows:


Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or person holding an office of trust or profit under the United States, shall be appointed an elector.


The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves. And they shall make a list of all the persons voted for, and of the number of votes for each; which list they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by States, the representation from each state having one vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by ballot the Vice President.


20 posted on 07/30/2004 5:55:06 PM PDT by gitmo (Thanks, Mel. I needed that.)
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