[sharktrager]

And the mathematical combinations that would produce that are few, and the odds are long.

Realistically, the only way it happens is if a viable third party emerges.

[republicanwizard]

Yeah, but I didn't think that Florida, with its huge population, would come down to 500 votes either.

[RWR8189]

This actually isn't all that unlikely in this election.

If Nevada and New Hampshire or New Hamphire and West Virginia break for Kerry and the 2000 map stays the same, its 269-269 tie. There are many other scenarios where this is a possibility, but those two seem the most likely to me.

But of course the wild card could be Maine. If Bush pulls off a win in one of the congressional districts it would tip him to 270.

[Right Wing Professor]

And the mathematical combinations that would produce that are few, and the odds are long.

Because Maine and Nebraska can split their electoral college, it's more likely than you think.

[Jack Black]

Several recent electoral projections have shown a 269-269 split. There are many combinations that are possible that would create this split. One I remember from playing with the electoral calculator is that Florida could go for Kerry but Oregon and Washington could go for Bush. All other states vote as they did in 2000. That's obviously Plausible, all three states were less than 1% in the last election I think. Obviously Florida was a lot less (600 votes out of millions!). I think the chances are low but not lottery ticket low.