Posted on 06/27/2004 1:25:06 PM PDT by No Dems 2004
Bush is running slightly ahead of Democrat John Kerry among registered voters in Colorado, a new poll shows.
The president had 48 percent support and Kerry was at 43 percent in the survey, conducted for The Denver Post by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Six percent of voters said they were undecided.
The poll, conducted June 15-18, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Colorado was considered safe for Bush, but Kerry recently began competing there although registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 185,000. Bush won the state in 2000 by 9 percentage points over Democrat Al Gore.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
Nader will be on the ticket and Kerry is just dreaming if he thinks he'll win Colorado.
Other than the obvious -"Run Ralph Run"?
I think the Pres will carry Colorado by more votes than he did last time.
Too many Californians there, sounds like.
poll ping
Accurate polling service.. Probably right around a Bush lead of 5-7 in Colorado right now.
8.5 Bush lead.
While I think we have all these states which have flared up into new battlegrounds as of late, i.e. colorado, virginia, arizona, west virginia, ohio, i am a bit worried about how these new states may make bush have to reallocate funds to these states. i am optimistic about pennsylvania. we are leading there. and i think we are doing well in wisconsin. (potential pickups to counter any kerry pickups).
I make my "guesses" not based on just polls, but also 2000 results.. I'm not a head in the clouds, 100% optismistic Bush supporter..
I personally believe that not a single state in the country has changed either way by more than 4% since 2000. (Exceptions are NY & NJ who were affected by 9/11 the most).
Take the Florida results.. a recent SurveyUSA put Bush at 7% lead.. He edged in 2000, so my "guess" says Bush is probably up by around 4-5% in Florida.
Unless there's overwhelming evidence pointing-out differently, you can't assume one single poll is 100% accurate.
Now if another poll comes out from a reliable polling service (Research 2000 or SurveyUSA) and shows Bush by 3 or 4%, then perhaps his lead there is 4-5%.
But with the evidence presented (very little in Colorado, just this poll here and another one from Rocky Mountain News back in early April that had Bush by 9, I would make an educated guess that Bush is down in Colorado from 2000, but not overwhlemingly, so I would estimate that this poll, 5% is near the bottom end of what he would receive if the election were held today, so my guess would be 5-7%.
Another example, New Jersey. Two Quinnipiac polls show Kerry with a 6% lead (Mid-June), and a 3% lead (Mid-May), and a Star Ledger shows Kerry with a 6% lead in Early-May.
Gore carried New Jersey by 15. I would be very skeptical that these two polls are accurate. My personal "feel" for this race would put Kerry's lead between 6-8 points.
In Michigan, A recent Fox News poll has BUsh by 2, an Epic/MRA has Kerry by 2, and SurveyUSA has Kerry by 4. Gore carried Michigan by 5% in 2000. Recent data suggest Bush is closer there than in 2000.. I would guesstimate Kerry's lead in Michigan is about 2-3 points.
Ohio, I have Bush by about 1-2 points. He won by 4 in 2000
North Carolina, I have Bush by 6-8 points. He won by 13 in 2000.
I am not just willy-nilly creating numbers because of "Hope" and blind Bush loving. These are educated guesses based on all of the data available.
How does 5 pts. become slightly ahead! It's outside the margin of error!
That's a theory that's been oft-repeated (and one I had believed myself), but Dales recently debunked it by providing evidence from past presidential elections. It seems that if anything, undecideds break for the incumbent more often than not. I don't think you can automatically conclude that Bush will get the undecideds this year based on that, but I think what it does mean is that it's not a given that the challenger is always going to get them.
The margin of error applies to both canidates' numbers, not just one. So Kerry could really be up 46-45, and these results would be within the margin of error of that.
This is actually an urban legend. A stronger trend is that the Dem for President has not outdone his Poll % in any race since 1964 with the exception of Gore. If Kerry is at 44-45% come the end of October, that's where he'll end. If you have access, look at the Sept presidential polls starting in 1968. Carter, Mondale, Dukakas,and Clintoon got their average Poll % in each case.
The number of states doesn't count. It's the Electoral College votes that count.
I wish more of the poll analyses would count Electoral votes. I might have to start doing it myself. It's hard to figure out who's winning otherwise.
Thanks for the info BlackRazor, I will look into it.
I hate repeating bunk, so thanks for the update.
Thanks jps098.
I am gonna look into that.
"Mason-Dixon is the most favorable of all pollsters for Pubbies"
This isn't true. Fox, SUSA and Quinnipiac have been more favoreable. Mason-Dixon has been about the same as, believe it or not, the LA Times. ARG, Ras have been the most favoreable for Kerry.
Actually there's only been two states, FL and NV, the Mason-Dixon has done this year that have been favorable to GOP (possibly you could count the IL poll too). OTOH the NC, SD, CO, WV and TN polls have been favoreable to Kerry.
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