Posted on 06/14/2004 4:06:56 PM PDT by Militiaman7
Bush is currently ahead by by 13%
Bush 53%
Kerry 40%
Nader 4%
Don't know 3%
over 15,000 voted
The higher the number of people polled, the more the percentages stabilize and stay the same. That's how polls work.
Internet polls with small numbers have the control problem of being limited to the regular readership for the polling site and who that readership notifies. But it's obvious that a lot more people were notified of this poll than any other Net poll I've seen.
It's an interesting one, for sure. I think the RNC poll dude should know about it. Most political people use the Net.
IMO, George Bush will win by a lot but only if we keep getting the vote out and vote ourselves.
I realize how polls work. One does expect "convergence" and as more people vote, each succeeding vote has less weight. Thus, as a poll gathers more voters, the percentages will typically change much more slowly, if at all.
However, the phonomenon here is quite different. The percentages seemed to be fixed while the polling numbers were quite low. Once 20,000 votes were cast, they didn't move AT ALL, even though we are well above 300,000 votes cast.
One would expect at least a little drift in the percentages. With a web poll the community that votes at work is purported to be different than the population which casts votes at home in the evening. Even the time shift should have provided a difference of some type.
This result is just weird.
Another conjecture: The poll is being driven by automated engines; i.e., the human participation is at such a low rate that it is essentially "noise". The Republican engine(s) are running slightly faster than the Democrat engine(s).
The poll numbers did seem to be going up incredibly fast. I should have taken time samples and determined the slope of the numbers. Of course, the numbers being posted could be constant because the poll engine itself is running at top rate due to normal voting. [This is one possibility which caused me to not perform any time samples.]
BTW: My original post was just to draw attention to the fact that the posted percentages do not necessarily report the nearly 400,000 votes cast. They did not promise to update the "results" in "real time". Perhaps they will JUMP in the morning.
Perhaps they left Bush ahead to see if the Democrats would respond by intense voting?! I still suspect that what we are seeing as a "result" is not an updated tabulation. It may be an experiment in polling and/or voting behavior.
Done - b52, k41
That's from AOL??
WOW
OK .. I voted
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
George W. Bush 52%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 4%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 395,269
Compare 2 recent media nationwide "fixed" push polls:
CBS Polled:
35% democrats
25% Republicans
LAT Polled:
13% more democrats than Republicans
-- Compare the two above media push polls %ages to 2000:
- GW Bush & algore within 1% nationwide in 2000
- agore claimed to have won by 500,000 popular vote
- But lost on electoral votes from Florida
- The AOL poll currently is about 400,000:
George W. Bush 52%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 4%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 395,269
11% up on a nationwide poll the media cannot manipulate (yet) by oversampling democrats and ignoring Republicans
Make sure you email this around to active US military, Vets, families, friends and multiple your voter registration efforts and voting day transportation co-ordination, and polling place monitoring.
If you hear one rumor or whisper of illegal aliens, convicted felons, multi-state registration and voting (Fl & NY, etc), dumping ballots (2000 FL), multiple voting (college in 2000), efforts to kill military absentee mailed in votes, motor-votor scams immediately contact the FBI, RNC, DOJ, Federal Marshall's Service.
Do not hesitate.
The FBI has an online site and when I reported a highly suspect Muslim family and group the FBI contacted my by phone the next day. Within 5 days they were back in Iran.
Two suspicious questions were asked my by the Islamics:
1 - Train travel for foreigners from Canada across the border into the USA.
2 - Why won't you sell me that nickel plated S&W .38? (after I told them to go to a local firearms dealer that just happened to be owned and run by retired and active local LEOs and NRA Instructors)
P.S - That S&W was a mint pearl stocked circa 1883 breaktop antique (black powder only!) .38S&W Short 5 shot revolver, not what a store owner or anyone would but as it was priced over five times what a modern smokeless powder 6 shot S&W, Colt, Ruger, etc could be bought for. The person was not a "collector"; he wanted a bright shiny nickle plated handgun quickly and with no questions and for no legitimate reason at that ultra high collector's value price.
That really set the FBI off, combined with the info on trains from Canada across our border into the US.
It could have been nothing.
The FBI and INS decided differently.
As I said above, they are all in Tehran Iran now.
--
June 14, 2004
--
Good work. Was that first-hand experience talking there?
Bump !
Voted!
George W. Bush 51%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 5%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 483,284
voted...
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
George W. Bush 51%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 5%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 487,264
Note on Poll Results
George W. Bush 51%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 5%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 515,099
I'm amazed!
Beginning this AM, AOL put a little "push" into this poll. AOL removed the rather straight "who would you vote for" from their main page and moved the poll inside an article about Teresa H. Kerry changing to a D from an R.
The article basically says Rs are mean especially with their alleged mean treatment of Cleland.
...as of about an hour or so ago.
George W. Bush 51%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 5%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 570,182
Yup
I turned them in to the FBI
Watching several others recently
One had some odd comments about the US in Iraq the other day
His papers better be on order or hello India!
Good work, Devolve. BUMPING NOW . .
Early today AOL moved the poll from it's own section into a biased article about Teresa Heinz saying she suddenly just changed her voter registration to democrat because those mean Republicans beat up on Max Cleland.
AOL's sneaky push-poll trick has not worked!
GW Bush is still ahead by a massive 10%:
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?George W.
51% Bush
41% John Kerry
`5% I don't know
`3% Ralph Nader
Total Votes: 571,795
Note on Poll Results
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
George W. Bush 51%
John Kerry 41%
I don't know 5%
Ralph Nader 3%
Total Votes: 572,133
closing in on 600,000
GW Bush still ahead by 10%
Since the two articles that AOL carried on their front page which linked to the poll are now buried deep in AOL news files, the current voting rate has declined to an average of less than 2 votes per minute. Unless AOL ties the poll back into their main page, the results are effectively buried. And after the sorry attempt to push the poll, AOL just may want to keep it buried.
Slow hits I noticied
AOL cannot even depend on their mostly liberal user base
I doubt they want to see this poll run to 1 million and have AOL publishing an non-media (well, at first!) slanted poll with GW Bush trouncing Kerry by 10% which would be 100,000 votes out or 1,000,000
I have not seen this AOL poll up at NewsMax or Drudge yet
If this ties closely into the numbers in November CBS, LAT, Zogby, NYT, and all the others are going to lose all of their credibility
This poll was on fire last night
It jumped by 50,000 or more in a flash
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