REAGAN-LIKE LANDSLIDE EYED

New York Post ^ | 6/10/04 | DEBORAH ORIN

[kattracks]

June 10, 2004 -- NOW is a good time to look back at the landslide win that sent Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980, because lots of analysts think 2004 could turn out the same way — close for a long time and then suddenly breaking wide open. In 1980, the break came just days before the vote, when Democrat Jimmy Carter finally agreed to debate. Reagan came off as sunny instead of scary and when he admonished Carter with a smile, "There you go again," it was all over.

Like President Bush, Carter faced voters nervous over both the economy and foreign policy and wondering whether it's time for a change — in Carter's case, skyrocketing inflation at home plus the endless Iran hostage crisis.

But there's a big difference, since Carter kept getting bad news on both fronts, while Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq, with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.

[dighton]

Needless to say, "conservative" + voting for Kerry does not compute.

[Mulder]

Bush is no Reagan, and this is not 1980 or 1994.

I expect the election to be very close, but Bush is in big electoral trouble.

This kind of reminds me of 1992 or 1996 where folks kept calling into Rush saying "things would get better when "X" happened". Stock market up 20% last year didn't help. Sadaam capture didn't help. Strong economic growth last 6 months isn't helping. Etc....

[counterpunch]

Maybe you're right, but I believe that number for Kerry is significantly lower than for Bush

You are correct. Rasmussen finds that only 39% will not vote for Bush under any circumstances, while 49% won't vote for Kerry under any circumstances. With figures like that, it's going to be a very hard sell for Kerry indeed.

[petercooper]

Exactly- Kerry's like Dole in '96. But Dole had class and resigned his Senate seat. I can't believe Kerry hasn't chosen his RAT VP yet.

[ThanhPhero]

In an atheist country there will be a small minority, perhaps 10% who are able or who bother to reason about morality and ethics. For all others immediate survival and improvement at the expense of others is the perceived requirement. In the 10% there will be a tenth who believe and understand that trust and cooperation would build a prosperous society. The others will be taking control of what they can for their own gain, riches and power. With no hope of afterlife or at least Nirvana, there is no benefit at all to any other mode for those who can prevail.

[alnick]

Also, we cannot rule out the many new republican voters picked up by Al Gore's temper tantrum in 2000. A lot of people who didn't pay much attention to politics prior to that follow very closely today and are deeply offended that he tried to steal the election in broad daylight. Couple that with President Bush's post 9/11 performance.

In my state, Louisiana, a few hundred republicans switched their registration to democrat; a few thousand democrats switched their registration to republican, according to a news report I saw in 12/00.

[ThanhPhero]

It is ironic that it is liberals who pride themselves on being the heirs of the Enlightenment, the establishment of Reason in discourse;and it is liberals who argue and believe from emotion and cannot sustain a logical argument.

[Poohbah]

"The woods are lovely, dark and deep..."

[ASA Vet]

What the heck are you talking about? Since I condemned no one I can only assume you intended posting to someone else?

[Preachin']

On my way to work this morning I was listening to a poll report that has Kerry up by 6-7%.

The poll was admittedly based on the notion that over 60% of the voters believe the economy is in the tank.

Once the TV ads on the economy begin to run it'll be over for Kerry.

[alnick]

The only reason Bush won in 2000 was the Dems slightly underestimated the amount of fraud needed, and freepers and others made sure they knew we would not tolerate election theft

With all due respect, the only reason Bush won in 2000 was because God thwarted every attempt at voter fraud, which explains Gore's total frustration. He had every reason to expect to get away with at least one of his angles, but nothing -- nothing -- he tried worked.

God has blessed this country in times of need with the right leaders at the right time. I'm praying and hoping that we will continue to have God's blessing.

[counterpunch]

In an atheist country there will be a small minority, perhaps 10% who are able or who bother to reason about morality and ethics. For all others immediate survival and improvement at the expense of others is the perceived requirement. In the 10% there will be a tenth who believe and understand that trust and cooperation would build a prosperous society. The others will be taking control of what they can for their own gain, riches and power. With no hope of afterlife or at least Nirvana, there is no benefit at all to any other mode for those who can prevail.

Sort of like America and every other country in the world, eh?
The only thing that discourages people from doing harm to others is the rule of law. The state's law, not God's.

[nathanbedford]

We both agree that Hispanics represent one of the few demographics which either side could claim with decisive consquences. You are right to point out Schawarzenegger's victory over a Hispanic and his majority share of that vote. He also proved one can win the Hispanic vote without pandering the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Rockerfeller Foundation on immigration as Bush has done.

Have you seen this article, there is no reason this kind of push cannot extend into the Spanish quarter:Bush campaign testing its massive grass-roots organization http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1150642/posts

[lonestar]

I agree. And too many Dem voters don't know WHY they are voting for Kerry or even HOW to read a ballot!

[Xenalyte]

"That's fuzzy math. I know, because as governor of Texas, I have to do math every day. I have to add up the numbers and decide whether I'm going to fill potholes out on Rt. 36 east of Abilene or commit funds to reroof the sheep barn at the Texas state fairgrounds."

[alnick]

I do not really hate Bush, but I blame him for making me have to vote for a 'rat

Bush may be to blame for a lot of things, but you can't blame him for your stupid choices.

[counterpunch]

Also, we cannot rule out the many new republican voters picked up by Al Gore's temper tantrum in 2000. A lot of people who didn't pay much attention to politics prior to that follow very closely today and are deeply offended that he tried to steal the election in broad daylight. Couple that with President Bush's post 9/11 performance.

YES! I am one of those voters!
And that is exactly why I started paying attention to politics. I grew up during the Reagan years, and he was like a grandfather to me. My politics have always been as they are, mostly because it's what has always been sensible to me. But prior to the Florida fiasco, I didn't pay much attention to politics, and didn't speak up on political issues at all. Pre-9/11, I'd never even voted.

The Al Gore's attempted election theft and the increasingly shrill diatribe from the left changed all of that, as did 9/11 and the President's heroic leadership.

I, too, believe I am not an exception.

[Polybius]

The Democrats cannot compete if they depend solely on their traditional base of single welfare mothers, athiests, condom throwers, abortion enthusiasts, government-addicted minorities, gold-chained union thugs, screeching feminists, college professors, Hollywood drunks, America-hating malcontents, and all the rest of society's losers, parasites, and weirdos.

Well, don't count on it.

Since the bottom half of society breeds at a faster rate, (even with their non-breeding segments) the quality of the average voter declines with each passing year.

[Lancey Howard]

great idea to suggest to any and all athiests and college professors that they are "society's losers, parasites and wierdos" who should go ahead and vote democrat

First, my description of the Democrat base was not intended to mean "any and all" anything - - you never heard of rhetoric?. Second, "athiests" was shorthand for the ACLU and its ilk - - you know, those folks who sue and extort little midwestern towns because there was reported to be a Christmas tree near the town square?

I apologize for (so easily) confusing you.

[1Old Pro]

Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq, with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.

Not to mention gasoline prices will soon be dropping a few pennies a week right up until election day. That's like water torture to the Dems.