248,000 payroll jobs added in May; Jobless rate: 5.6%

CNBC | Friday, June 4, 2004

[JohnHuang2]

Employment Situation Summary

Technical information:
   Household data:  (202) 691-6378    USDL 04-996
           http://www.bls.gov/cps/

   Establishment data:    691-6555    Transmission of material in this release 
           http://www.bls.gov/ces/    is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EDT),
Media contact:            691-5902    Friday, June 4, 2004.
                                        
                                        
                       THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:  MAY 2004
                                        
   Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May, and the unemployment
rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.
Department of Labor reported today.  The May increase in payroll employment
follows gains of 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March (as revised).  Job
growth in May again was widespread, as increases continued in construction,
manufacturing, and several service-providing industries.
   
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
   
   The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million
in May, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent.  The unemployment rate
has been either 5.6 or 5.7 percent in each month since December 2003.  The
unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult
women (4.8 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites (5.0 percent), blacks
(9.9 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.0 percent)--were little changed in
May.  The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.2 percent, not seasonally ad-
justed.  (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
   
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
   
   Total employment was 138.8 million in May, and the employment-population
ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--remained
at 62.2 percent.  The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.9 per-
cent for the fourth consecutive month.  (See table A-1.)
   
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
   
   The number of persons who were marginally attached to the labor force was
1.5 million in May, about the same as a year earlier.  (Data are not season-
ally adjusted.)  These individuals wanted and were available to work and had
looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.  They were not counted as
unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4
weeks preceding the survey.  There were 476,000 discouraged workers in May,
also about the same as a year earlier.  Discouraged workers, a subset of the
marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because
they believed no jobs were available for them.  The other 1.1 million margin-
ally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or family
responsibilities.  (See table A-13.)

                                  - 2 -

Table A.  Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
______________________________________________________________________________
                         |    Quarterly    |                          |
                         |    averages     |        Monthly data      |
                         |_________________|__________________________| Apr.-
        Category         |  2003  | 2004 1/|           2004           | May
                         |________|________|__________________________|change
                         |   IV   |   I    |  Mar.  |  Apr.  |  May   |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
     HOUSEHOLD DATA      |                 Labor force status
                         |____________________________________________________
Civilian labor force.....| 146,986| 146,661| 146,650| 146,741| 146,974|    233
  Employment.............| 138,369| 138,388| 138,298| 138,576| 138,772|    196
  Unemployment...........|   8,616|   8,273|   8,352|   8,164|   8,203|     39
Not in labor force.......|  75,290|  75,695|  75,900|  76,016|  75,993|    -23
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |                 Unemployment rates
                         |____________________________________________________
All workers..............|     5.9|     5.6|     5.7|     5.6|     5.6|    0.0
  Adult men..............|     5.5|     5.1|     5.2|     5.0|     5.2|     .2
  Adult women............|     5.1|     5.0|     5.1|     5.0|     4.8|    -.2
  Teenagers..............|    16.3|    16.6|    16.5|    16.9|    17.2|     .3
  White..................|     5.1|     5.0|     5.1|     4.9|     5.0|     .1
  Black or African       |        |        |        |        |        |
    American.............|    10.7|    10.1|    10.2|     9.7|     9.9|     .2
  Hispanic or Latino     |        |        |        |        |        |
    ethnicity............|     7.1|     7.4|     7.4|     7.2|     7.0|    -.2
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
  ESTABLISHMENT DATA     |                     Employment
                         |____________________________________________________
Nonfarm employment.......| 130,002| 130,367| 130,630|p130,976|p131,224|   p248
  Goods-producing 2/.....|  21,676|  21,719|  21,778| p21,830| p21,902|    p72
    Construction.........|   6,766|   6,819|   6,853|  p6,872|  p6,909|    p37
    Manufacturing........|  14,340|  14,326|  14,344| p14,373| p14,405|    p32
  Service-providing 2/...| 108,326| 108,648| 108,852|p109,146|p109,322|   p176
    Retail trade.........|  14,915|  14,974|  15,013| p15,041| p15,060|    p19
    Professional and     |        |        |        |        |        |
      business services..|  16,114|  16,202|  16,237| p16,367| p16,431|    p64
    Education and health |        |        |        |        |        |
      services...........|  16,705|  16,774|  16,813| p16,852| p16,896|    p44
    Leisure and          |        |        |        |        |        |
      hospitality........|  12,172|  12,239|  12,271| p12,313| p12,353|    p40
    Government...........|  21,549|  21,540|  21,553| p21,574| p21,547|   p-27
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |                  Hours of work 3/
                         |____________________________________________________
Total private............|    33.7|    33.8|    33.8|   p33.8|   p33.8|   p0.0
  Manufacturing..........|    40.6|    41.0|    40.9|   p40.7|   p41.1|    p.4
    Overtime.............|     4.4|     4.6|     4.6|    p4.6|    p4.7|    p.1
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |    Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100) 3/
                         |____________________________________________________
Total private............|    98.7|    99.3|    99.5|   p99.9|  p100.2|   p0.3
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |                    Earnings 3/
                         |____________________________________________________
Avg. hourly earnings,    |        |        |        |        |        |
  total private..........|  $15.45|  $15.52|  $15.55| p$15.59| p$15.64| p$0.05
Avg. weekly earnings,    |        |        |        |        |        |
  total private..........|  520.55|  524.58|  525.59| p526.94| p528.63|  p1.69
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______

   1  Beginning in January 2004, household data reflect revised population
controls used in the Current Population Survey.
   2  Includes other industries, not shown separately.
   3  Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.
   p=preliminary.
                                  - 3 -
   
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

   Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May to 131.2 million,
seasonally adjusted.  Since its recent low in August 2003, payroll employment
has risen by 1.4 million; 947,000 of this increase occurred over the last 3
months.  Job growth was widespread in May, with gains continuing in construc-
tion, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries.  (See table
B-1.)
   
   In May, construction employment increased by 37,000, with most of the gain
occurring in specialty trade contracting and the construction of buildings.
Since March 2003, the construction industry has added about a quarter-million
jobs.

   Manufacturing employment grew by 32,000 in May.  Since January, manufactur-
ing as added 91,000 jobs, mostly in its durable goods component.  In May, em-
ployment rose in three construction-related manufacturing industries:  fabri-
cated metal products, wood products, and nonmetallic mineral products (such
as concrete and cement).  Employment also increased in computer and electronic
products.
   
   Mining employment continued to rise in May.  Since January, the industry
has added 18,000 jobs.
   
   In the service-providing sector, professional and business services added
64,000 jobs in May.  Employment in temporary help services continued to rise
(31,000) and has grown by 299,000 (or 14 percent) since April 2003.
   
   Strong employment increases in health care and social assistance continued
in May with a gain of 36,000.  Over the year, this industry has added 274,000
jobs.  Hospitals and ambulatory health care services, such as outpatient care
centers, accounted for two-thirds of May's employment gain.
   
   Within the leisure and hospitality industry, food services added 33,000 jobs
over the month.  Since the beginning of the year, employment in food services
has increased by an average of 32,000 a month, more than double the average
monthly increase in 2003.
   
   Employment in financial activities rose by 15,000 in May, reflecting con-
tinued increases in real estate and in credit intermediation.  Retail employ-
ment continued to trend upward in May; over the year, the industry has added
142,000 jobs.  Within retail trade, employment edged up in May in building
material and garden supply stores, food and beverage stores, and clothing
stores.  Wholesale trade employment also edged up in May; the industry has
added 55,000 jobs since October 2003.
   
   In the information sector, telecommunications employment was down by 5,000
in May.  Since its peak in March 2001, the telecommunications industry has shed
283,000 jobs, a fifth of its total.

                                  - 4 -

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

   The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in May at 33.8 hours, seasonally adjusted.  The
manufacturing workweek increased by 0.4 hour to 41.1 hours, more than offset-
ting declines in March and April.  Manufacturing overtime edged up by 0.1 hour
to 4.7 hours in May.  (See table B-2.)
   
   The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.3 percent in May to 100.2 (2002=100).
The manufacturing index was up by 1.3 percent over the month to 95.5.  (See
table B-5.)                                

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

   Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents in May to $15.64, seasonally adjusted.  Aver-
age weekly earnings were up by 0.3 percent over the month to $528.63.  Over
the year, average hourly earnings grew by 2.2 percent, and average weekly earn-
ings increased by 2.5 percent.  (See table B-3.)


                         ______________________________


   The Employment Situation for June 2004 is scheduled to be released on Friday,
July 2, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).

Tom Daschle was reportedly "Deeply, deeply saddened" at the news.

;-)

[Koblenz]

Aren't most teenagers still in school for this period? It's not a summer unemployment report...

[NYC Republican]

Thanks.

[tnlibertarian]

Thank you, George W. Bush

JH2: Seconded!

MODERATOR: We have a second. All those in favor of thanking George W. Bush?

CROWD: AYE!!!

MODERATOR: Opposed?

LONE VOICE: nay.

MODERATOR: Shut up, Willie. Motion carries. Thank you, George W. Bush.

[NYC Republican]

btw, at this rate of job creation, by November Kerry will no longer be able to claim (as he has falsely) that there had been net job losses on Bush's watch

Their talking points will shift to NO net jobs created by President Bush, vs. millions created by Klinton... They will also talk up the deficit... and of course pull out the race card wherever they can.

I'd put NOTHING past these scum.

[NYC Republican]

If Kerry would say something like..."This is great news for the American people. I am impressed with this sustained economic growth...congratulations American."....I would be flabbergasted.

It'll never happen... Rove and co. would use it in campaign ads...

[xzins]

It's easy enough to separate those who require jobs as necessities and those who require jobs for other reasons.

Those who are claimed as dependents should not be part of these numbers. They are not a reflection of unemployment.

Another way is to remove their numbers entirely and report them separately as a statistic of interest to the economy.

In any case, school is letting out right about now. The May numbers WOULD be for teenagers who were predominantly in school. Therefore, the numbers are those for teenagers who predominantly are dependents on someone else's tax return.

Koblenz is a neat town along the Rhine in Germany...on the road to Cologne. There was a Birkenstock shoe factory outlet nearby that my wife would shop at every now and then.

[GailA]

hanoi john and tommy dashole are very deeply saddened

[adam_az]

"I think I'm gonna get some outrageously expensive lunch today.

And buy an assault weapon this weekend."

Cool! I'm going to go find some beautiful desert scenery this weekend, and then drive over it. ;)

[AFPhys]

Average hours and overtime hours are both higher - rather
significant rises since last quarter '03. This is not the
end of the beginning of this cycle... it still looks very
robust and healthy to me and we may still be in the starting
blocks.

Also, amazingly enough, there has been a constant number over
that time for "govt jobs".

The internals are all pointing to a very healthy and balanced
expansion now.

[babaloo]

Your second picture reminds me that I have got to mow this weekend!

[MeekOneGOP]

248,000 payroll jobs added in May; Jobless rate: 5.6%

At this rate, I don't think the 'RATS/Kerry will be able to use jobs and the economy against Bush/GOP this fall !

Yep ! You're right, John. Lil tommy is .....

Saddened, deeply saddened . . .

Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my General Interest ping list!. . .don't be shy.

[Miss Marple]

Hi, there, and welcome! Thanks for the info on ABC radio....I will probably hear that on the next news report and your warning will keep me from hitting the radio with a large object!

[alrea]

"Hiring last month was widespread, with businesses adding an overall 248,000 new jobs across the economy. Industries that posted the biggest gains included construction, health care, professional and business services and hotels and restaurants.

"What is really key is that every major sector had improvements," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia Securities. "That suggests these gains are sustainable."

[PISANO]

I will bet any amount that the MAIN STREAM MEDIA/PRESS will report this ONCE, then follow up with spin that will emulate the Democrat negative 'talking points'.....then quietly bury it beneath Abu Gharib prisoner abuse stories.

[AFPhys]

Don't forget the upward revisions.

April went from 288K to 346K
March went from 337K to 353K

I'm not at all surprised. I suspected that the April numbers there were very unlikely.

[AFPhys]

This news definitely will be the lead item tonight on CBS.../Sarcasm ;-)

Actually, CBS radio news DID lead with this, and in a very positive light, at their 9AM news broadcast. However, they are often quite a bit more balanced in their reporting, so it is not indicative about how the TV will play this.
.

[AFPhys]

There will definitely be a labor shortage soon, at least a shortage of technical-types.

I notice that the "telecom" sector has not yet started to put on weight. That will come in time, before this cycle is much more underway. When that starts, the demand for tech labor is going to skyrocket.

I would not at all be surprised if that is starting RIGHT now as the smartest companies look at the economy and anticipate that they would rather try to pick them now before the labor market tightens further.

[dcgst4]

"I will probably hear that on the next news report and your warning will keep me from hitting the radio with a large object!"

Wow! I know the feeling. We've got (almost) all conservative radio here in Pittsburgh but they play ABC news during the breaks and it just infuriates me. And I've heard ABC was the LEAST biased!!! Hard to believe...

[AFPhys]

Good luck with your WMD hunt.

Make sure to take your mask and camera.

Can I come, too?
.

[snooker]

" I'm going out to look for the WMD now. The way things are going, I'll probably find 'em."

Now wouldn't that be a hoot. Stay tuned, Bush looks too happy these days.