Posted on 05/19/2004 3:42:46 PM PDT by ambrose
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Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. May 12-18, 2004. N=845 registered voters nationwide. |
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"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?" Names rotated |
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| George W. Bush |
John Kerry |
Not Sure |
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| % | % | % | |||||
| 5/12-18/04 | 42 | 43 | 16 | ||||
| 3/8-11/04 | 46 | 43 | 12 | ||||
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"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry, Republican George W. Bush or independent Ralph Nader?" Names rotated |
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| George W. Bush |
John Kerry |
Ralph Nader |
Not Sure |
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| % | % | % | % | ||||
| 5/12-18/04 | 42 | 41 | 7 | 11 | |||
| 5/2-8/04 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 7 | |||
| 4/16-22/04 | 44 | 40 | 3 | 14 | |||
| 4/14-19/04 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 13 | |||
| 3/29 - 4/3/04 | 43 | 45 | 5 | 8 | |||
| 3/8-11/04 | 45 | 40 | 6 | 8 | |||
| 3/1-7/04 | 41 | 44 | 6 | 8 | |||
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ping.
Note - registered, not likely voters.
I actually trust registered voter polls more at this stage. Likely voter models is where a pollster can really 'sauce' things up to produce a result that he wants.
good point
These polls still assume Nader will make the ballot in all 50 states. Even with the unexplainable endorsement of the Reform Party, I don't think that will happen.
It is my belief that many of the people saying they'll vote for Nader will end up not voting at all.
Right now, Nader is the proverbial "none of the above" candidate...
I had a hard core democrat tell me today "I hope they kill Nader soon."
Typical Democrat.
I just hope they wait until late November at the least.
Looks like Bush is coming back in the polls.
I am not sure which polls you are referring to. Bush dropped 4% in this poll, though Kerry didn't move up at all.
He's was behind in the last round of polls, but was ahead in today's Rasmussen. At least he hasn't fallen behind in this poll.
Yah, I think you can read from that that Kerry has absolutely peaked. He can't get more than 42-45%, depending on the poll. That is horrible news for him, because, as Dickie Morris said, Bush had the worst 6 weeks of any president in recent memory, and he's still ahead in a 3-way race. Bush also expanded his leads in all categories today in the Rasmussen poll---for what that's worth.
I just don't like to mix and match poll results from different polling outfits since they all use differing methodologies... but I get your drift. This poll was taken over a week's time, so it'd be interesting to see the day to day breakdown...
Brit Hume mentioned the NEW Gallup poll which had the President ahead of kerry in a two way race. The margin widened even more in favor of the President, when Nader was figured in.
It was just a quick mention of it tonight. The OLD poll that had the President so far down, was hammered for 12 days straight.
LLS
Nader is not going to get 7%. I don't like this poll but it is probably accurate and my hunch is that Bush is bottoming out and an uptrend will likely occur within the next few weeks.
New Gallup poll? Can't find it on their website? Wonder if Brit got a look at internals of an upcoming poll- This new TIPP poll isn't the best of news for Bush, considering he was up by 6 last week in the same poll.
NAder will not get 7%, hence this poll is worthless.
Wasn't bush ahead by 6 in this poll last week?
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