These polls still assume Nader will make the ballot in all 50 states. Even with the unexplainable endorsement of the Reform Party, I don't think that will happen.
It is my belief that many of the people saying they'll vote for Nader will end up not voting at all.
Right now, Nader is the proverbial "none of the above" candidate...
Well, Nader already failed to qualify in Texas so there goes the 50 state thing. BTW, if he failed with Texas he's pretty much guaranteed to fail in Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Georgia, which have even more difficult access. He'll also fail in Florida unless he gets on with a party line (and it's unclear whether the Reform Party qualifies, because they didn't hold a nominating convention as Florida law specifies).