ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[Jacob Kell]

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November.

In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush.

"I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election."

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

The pollster's third reason stems from reading the numbers surrounding the top three issues on voters' minds.

Thirty percent of voters cite the economy as the No. 1 issue, while just 11 percent cite the war in Iraq. Kerry leads Bush 54 to 35 percent among those who name the economy. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Zogby points out, Kerry's lead is 57 to 36 percent.

"This, of course, is balanced by the 64 percent to 30 percent margin that the president holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism," Zogby writes.

Zogby's fourth reason: Kerry's a good closer:

"Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Concluded Zogby: " We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose."

[boxsmith13]

MI is solidly Kerry. PA might be a toss up. NJ is like IL, solid Kerry.

Interesting about IL is it has a 10-9 GOP majority in its House delegation but it is so heaviliy DEM state. Reason is GOP districts are 55% or so GOP while DEM districts are like 90% DEM.

I do agree Bush might have a chance in WI, but not MN or WA.

As for WV not likeing NEers, they voted for Dukakis

[longtermmemmory]

Moby?

[boxsmith13]

" dunno, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Earth changes happen faster nowadays, but last time I looked at a map, Florida was in the south."

FL is geographically in the south but it isnt culturally in the south, it is part Midwest part NE.

[TomEwall]

Turnout is important. In all the Likely Voter polls are unmentioned assumptions, having to do with what a Likely Voter is. (Dales has an excellent article about this). The polls which show Kerry doing well are assuming a high turnout. These include Zogby and Rasmussen. The other polls that make more conservative assumptions about turnout show Bush ahead.

[ride the whirlwind]

Zogby has been right in the past but I think he has underestimated how poor of a candidate kerry is. Once the debates are aired people will turn to Bush or not vote. I say this because kerry has never given a straight answer on anything and will look more than silly in a debate with Bush.

If I was JfK, I'd be dreading a debate. So many opportunities to put his foot in his mouth with the flip-flopping he does.
Team Bush is going through another tough time driven by the media. I believe that ultimately they will weather this storm like all the others.

[Zechariah11]

More than one lurking around?

[Maria S]

I second your suggestion.

[rohry]

I don't like banning posters as a rule but this guy "boxsmith13" is a jerk and an obvious liberal troll. Can't you review his posts and get rid of him?

[longtermmemmory]

I believe these polls are fundraising push polls in order to get money for the kerry campaign. I am in a battleground state and have yet to see a single kerry Ad. Could the poodle be in financial trouble?

[Zechariah11]

Second that.

[boxsmith13]

im not liberal, ive just looked at all the gallup polls going back to 1932, and based on history it looks bad for Bush

[NeonKnight]

FL is geographically in the south but it isnt culturally in the south, it is part Midwest part NE.

I think there are a great many Floridians who would disagree with you, 'specially in the panhandle. Oh, but I forgot, if they don't live between Miami and Orlando, they don't count.

[Cold Heat]

....Someone has done a terrible job at getting the facts out...and that is the GWB camp...

You keep that up, and you will find yourself lurking again.

The facts are not as you stated.

The truth is that the rat media keeps distorting the facts and ignoring the truth.

They keep spouting the Harry Truman crap and the 2 point something million jobs lost during the dot com bust that occurred during the Clinton admin.

They never mention 9/11 as a cause for the rest!

Get your fact straight and maybe you will stay for a while..........

[Zechariah11]

Dead on right.

[Cold Heat]

LOL! I don't think so, but you never know around here.

[TomEwall]

I'm not sure what "solid" means to you, but to me it means close to 10%. Solid Kerry states are states like Illinois and New York. Michigan isn't even in the ballpark of solid.

OR, IA, MN, WI, NM, FL and NH were all extremely close. PA and FL seem to have moved in Bush's direction, OH to Kerry (although it's hard to tell because noone seems to want to poll in Ohio. The last poll was something like 2 months ago). None of these states are "solid". If either candidate wins by 3% he should take 6 of 7 of these states, and likely all 7.

[longtermmemmory]

Only 1! in CA!

[TomEwall]

Also not mentioned is that according to the more accurate household survey, jobs are already net positive in the Bush Administration, and have been for some time. For some reason the less acurate Labor dept. stat is all that is mentioned.

[Hollywoodghost]

Just wait until the debates. I recall what "W" did to John McCain in North Carolina--Made him look like a monkey. He's going to rip Kerry a new tail section. Still, all is up in the air. A scandal, a bloody attack, a new mistress and the wole thing could turn. Its going to be interestin' to say the least.

[NeonKnight]

Native Floridians are deep south, all the rest are transplants...ie...retirees, immigrants.