SurveyUSA: Specter/Toomey Tied

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/26/04

[Dales]

Specter 48%, Toomey 48%. 4.6% MoE.

[AmishDude]

Santorum isn't up for reelection for 4 years.

[counterpunch]

I don't see why you highlighted "I am very, very deeply committed to education and economic opportunity for all Americans", as if this is a controversial position.

I don't know of anyone who would disagree with that statement. Nor should they.

Overall, I think your post was a rather unconvincing argument against Specter. The National Review Online made a much stronger case against him than you.

[counterpunch]

I do get that averaging polls is highly unscientific. These polls have different MoEs, and are from different timeframes and are not compatable.

I also remember realclearpolitics.com had Howard Dean running away with the Democrat nomination. Things can change in the blink of an eye in politics, and 6 months is a lifetime.

[labard1]

"I don't know if Bill Jones will win, but I think it will be close."

As much as I dislike Boxer, and as much as I believe a good GOP candidate should be able to beat her, Bill Jones is not that candidate. He can't raise money, and he's an uninspiring guy. I'll vote for him, of course, but he'll lose big-- despite whatever Boxer can do to blow it.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Bush loses so does Rick.S if spector loses.

Why, are you planning on not supporting them if Snarlin loses? This makes no sense, they have both been forced to support him given the dynamic of the Senate. I understand that, I don't agree with their strategy, but I can see where they are coming from.

Bush loses if Specter is reelected and he Borks all his nominees in his 2nd term. It will be hard to blame Daschel since this whole primary, and the work of FReepers has shown clearly what a negative effect having Snarlin in the Senate has been on the Judicial Activism front. Frankly, Republicans lose of Snarlin wins.

[Momaw Nadon]

From TradeSports.com

As of 6:00 P.M. EST:

Pat Toomey v Arlen Specter. Arlen Specter to Win: 62.0

Although the political futures traders are currently giving Arlen Specter a 62.0% chance of winning, I hope in this case that they are wrong.

[Redcloak]

Stick a fork in Arlen; I think he's done.

An incumbant who isn't cracking 50% this close to the election is in a world of hurt. This is also a good sample. It's a "certain voters" poll; not a "registered voters" poll. The remaining 4%, if they haven't decided to vote for Specter by now, aren't going to move toward him in the next 12 hours.

[Theodore R.]

IU believe that Santorum is up for reelection in 2006, not 2008.

[KQQL]

Philly Suburbs have Rep(rino) voters

[AmishDude]

You're right. My point, though, was that supporting Specter will not harm Santorum.

[KQQL]

I always support the GOP.

If Toomey wins good for him, if Spector Wins good for SCOTTISH LAW !

[mbraynard]

No. Because their members are registered Dems and cannot participate. Additionally, there is a contested race on the D side for AG to discourage people re-registering (as if Specter inspires anyone to do that).

[BillyBoy]

I don't see why you highlighted "I am very, very deeply committed to education and economic opportunity for all Americans", as if this is a controversial position. I don't know of anyone who would disagree with that statement. Nor should they.

I don't think anyone would disagree with that position either. I think they would disagree with Arlen's VOTING RECORD (pro-affirmative action, anti-vouchers, etc.) on that issue if stopped to think about whether his actions match his words.

Overall, I think your post was a rather unconvincing argument against Specter.

Ah, so you're not convinced that a guy who was ON RECORD saying most Republicans want "to pursue a radical social agenda that would end a woman's right to choose and mandate school prayer”, and "this nation -- nor this Party can afford a Republican candidate -- so captive to the demands of the intolerant right”, plus my personal favorite "It is not Judeo-Christian to bring God into politics." DESPISES the very people who he is BEGGING to vote for him now?

Talk about biting the hand that feeds you. Since the party shouldn't be "captive to the right", then he doesn't NEED our votes. Why would he go to a gun rally and press the flesh with those "intolerant" people? The moderate "majority" can all vote for him.

>> The National Review Online made a much stronger case against him than you. <<

The National Review cited the exact same speech. I merely posted a longer form and pointed out all questionable statements he made there. Of course their article was more in-depth, because they covered his whole career. I'm just REMINDING people of one example showing the way this guy acts when he's not out running for the Senate.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

if Spector Wins good for SCOTTISH LAW !

Not proven! (Sorry I couldn't resist)

[counterpunch]

Well, yes. NRO was more convincing specifically because they went far more in depth, citing his actual VOTING RECORD on a number of issues, rather than just highlighting sections regarding abortion from a single speech.

Now I understand there is a segment of FR that is very passionate about abortion issues, but there is a whole lot more to politics - a whole lot more that is of more immediate concern - than this single issue, and it is certainly not a slam-dunk issue with all of your intended audience.

I was with you sort of for most of it, but your seemingly anti-education, anti-equal access slant really turned me away from whatever point you were trying to make.

[LenS]

Specter's the incumbent. No one wants to antagonize him since incumbents almost always win these primaries. Nobody wants to turn him into a Jeffords.

But if Toomey wins, they all have over six months to forget their Specter support and mobilize for Toomey.

[Condor51]

Chicago isn't in Pennsylvania, right? ;^]

No, but Intercourse is.

[LenS]

Then your position makes no sense sinse either Specter or a Democratic chairman would be pro-choice, not pro-life. Besides, this will probably be Specter's last race. I'd say the odds are good that if the Senate is tied after November, he'll switch parties to maximize his position.