FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Kerry 44, Bush 43

PollingReport.com ^ | 4.8.04

[ambrose]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. April 6-7, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	4/6-7/04	43	44	12	1
	3/23-24/04	44	44	10	2
	3/3-4/04	44	44	11	1
	2/18-19/04	45	45	9	1
	2/4-5/04	47	43	9	1
	1/21-22/04	49	42	8	1
	1/7-8/04	54	32	12	2
	7/03	54	35	8	3
	5/03	58	29	11	2
	12/02	57	29	12	2

 

[KellyAdmirer]

It was like that in 2000, too, always near dead even. And that is how it wound up. It was deadly accurate. People give Zogby credit, but this poll was just as accurate in 2000.

[My2Cents]

OK, here's my theory --

The national polls are showing consistent inconsistency. In fact, the daily tracking polls are showing no real trend, since the relative support for Kerry and Bush shift back and forth given the events in the latest news cycle.

National surveys may not be a good indication of how the presidential race is going. As we know, presidents are not elected by popular vote, but by 51 separate races, and the campaign which can cobble together a combination of states that will garner it a majority of electoral votes will be the victor. Hence, at this point in the campaign, it may be more instructive to look at individual state polls to gauge how the campaign is going.

In most of the nation, the campaign has yet to begin. But in certain key swing states, the campaign has begun in earnest. And look at the results: In the most recent Keystone poll in Pennsylvania, Bush leads Kerry by 6%; in the most recent Columbus Dispatch poll (4/4) of Ohio, Bush is ahead of Kerry by 2%, reversing a 2% Kerry lead three weeks ago; and in Florida, "ground zero" in the 2000 election vote count, Bush now leads Kerry by 8% (Tampa Tribune, 4/1).

In short, in the states that matter -- the swing or "battleground" states, the states where the election will be decided, the states where the election campaign is in full swing -- Pres. Bush is starting to seperate himself and pull away from his Democrat challenger.

[ambrose]

"Would you still support Senator Snort if you knew that he frequently dressed in women's clothing?" No poll that uses push questions like this is legitimate. Unethical pollsters who use such questions conceal this, if they can get away with it.

A variation of this would be to simply ask respondents various questions about unemployment, deaths in Iraq, etc., and THEN follow those questions up with the horse race question/

[DrDeb]

"Any individual poll this far are dosn't mean too much. But, the trend in this series of polls is very disturbing. The question is - what will change the trend?"


Actually, the "trends" reflected in the Zogby poll (4/1-4/04) and today's FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics poll are QUITE ENCOURAGING -- both polls show NO CHANGE in the President's standing despite unparalleled attacks from the left in the form of Clarke's historical revisionism and Kennedy et al's 'Vietnamization' of Iraq -- we couldn't ask for anything more at this juncture!!!!

[BTW: The FoxNews poll indicates that 92% of Republicans -- statistical unanimity -- continue to support the President. That's all we need at this point. The 5-7% of the voting public who are genuinely 'undecided' will not make-up their minds until October!]

[DrDeb]

I apologize for the double post -- my office computer is moving at a snail's pace today ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!

[familyofman]

"...both polls show NO CHANGE in the President's standing despite unparalleled attacks from the left..."

I was referring to the longer run trend 12/02 - 4/6 which shows Bush going from 57% to 43%. That is the trend that caught my attention. Nothing Clarke has done/said could move the numbers that much - especially since the trend was in place long before he opened his yap. It's also worth noting that Kerry has gone from 29% to 44% over the same time.

[LdSentinal]

Memo to self: PEW polls have become garbage.

[DrDeb]

Ignore match-up statistics gleaned before the conclusion of the Democrat primaries.

If you want to observe MEANINGFUL trends, you need to begin with the first week of March!
4/06-07/04 Bush 43 Kerry 44 Undecided 12 1
3/23-24/04 Bush 44 Kerry 44 Undecided 10 2
3/03-04/04 Bush 44 Kerry 44 Undecided 10 1
As you can see, the match-up stats have remained remarkably stable!

[familyofman]

"Ignore match-up statistics gleaned before..."

Do you life in a place called Emerald City?

[RoseofTexas]

They're coming to take me away, ho ho ha ha hee hee ho ho, to the funny farm where life is breautiful all th' time and they're coming to take me a waaaaayyyyyyyyy!

Michael


Hehehehe! Anyway, there's only two polls I trust, God's poll and the one taken on Tues. in Nov.!!!!

[vanmorrison]

I couldn't agree more. The fact that Kerry continues to poll as high as he does is absolutely mind-numbing.

But then, we live in a world where the Spanish vote for Socialist appeasement in the face of mass murder, and the US finds itself in a battle with newly-liberated Iraqis who just can't seem to get enough of torture, rape, gassing, stuffing people into wood-chippers, and filling mass graves.

We live in a world gone mad...

[drjimmy]

No poll that uses push questions like this is legitimate. Unethical pollsters who use such questions conceal this, if they can get away with it.

Thanks for chiming in with this. Way too many folks here seem to claim that any poll whose results they disagree with is a "push poll." The purpose of a push poll, in any case, is not even to get a bogus result. It is a campaign commercial done via the telephone, disguised as a poll so that the respondent isn't aware that it is a commmercial. Its intention is to "push" voters away from an opponent and toward the candidate who paid for the calls.

[fish hawk]

You might want to change your Headline. Bush Sr.41 Clinton 42 G.W.Bush 43 that would make Kerry 44 Oh no!!!!

[Bonaventure]

The 57% number was artifically high. It should not be held against Bush that he is no longer polling 20 or 30 points ahead of Kerry. The race was bound to close.

[DrDeb]

"Do you life in a place called Emerald City?"



Why would you regard as valid match-up polls between Kerry and Bush when most voters (including Democrats) were either focused on Howard Dean or ignoring the Bush/Kerry campaigns altogether? Did you also regard as meaningful the fall match-up polls that showed Howard Dean defeating Bush by single digits and Kerry by double digits?!

[jraven]

Let met get this straight: if I read it correctly Fox News just did a poll that shows Kerry ahead and someone suggests the pollster pushed them in another direction. So now Fox News pollsters are also trying to conspire to get a poll to show Kerry ahead. In other words, if a poll shows GWB ahead, it's great and let's tout it. If a poll (even a more trustworth one done by Fox) shows him behind, it MUST be that it was a push poll, biased or not accurate. It isn't true that "the only poll that counts on election day" -- the only poll that counts (with some) is the poll that shows our guy ahead. Thank God political consultants have it a bit differently (they look at polls where our candidate may be behind and try to fix it).

[jraven]

Let met get this straight: if I read it correctly Fox News just did a poll that shows Kerry ahead and someone suggests the pollster pushed them in another direction. So now Fox News pollsters are also trying to conspire to get a poll to show Kerry ahead. In other words, if a poll shows GWB ahead, it's great and let's tout it. If a poll (even a more trustworth one done by Fox) shows him behind, it MUST be that it was a push poll, biased or not accurate. It isn't true that "the only poll that counts on election day" -- the only poll that counts (with some) is the poll that shows our guy ahead. Thank God political consultants have it a bit differently (they look at polls where our candidate may be behind and try to fix it).

[Owen]

>

I couldn't agree more. The fact that Kerry continues to poll as high as he does is absolutely mind-numbing.

>

Heavens no. It's not at all. If you are a leftist who voted against Bush in 2000, a lot has to happen to change your mind. A lot. People don't like to think they were wrong. It's no different than making a purchase decision.
All studies show that the more you pay for something, the more pleased with it you are, regardless of any objective measures of quality. No one wants to think they were wrong.

Given that 1/2 the electorate voted against Bush, there is no surprise at all they now choose to go with Kerry. To win we have to GOTV among whoever we can find that did not vote in 2000, be they 18 or 70.

And remind people that Bush has done a good job in unprecedented circumstances. Remind them of how proud we were of him in the days after 9/11. That was a period when maybe 5% of Gore voters were truly saying . . . maybe I was wrong about Bush.

[DrDeb]

I did not engage in the discussion about push polling. [I have not examined this poll closely enough to offer an opinion]

[veronica]

Not a bad outcome, after all the violence in Iraq this past week. Bush will be ahead soon enough.