Why Israel's Killing of Yassin, May Have Been a Mistake From a Military and Strategic Perspective

3-23-04 | Pinochet

[pinochet]

I am a junkie of military history, and I have probably read more books by John Keegan than any other freeper. When I first heard of Yassin's assassination yesterday, I was happy and excited. But upon further reading and reflection on the issue, I am now worried and concerned about the consequences for Israel and America.

Let us debate the facts from a military and strategic perspective, rather than from our raw emotions. Sheikh Yassin has not been in control of Hamas for more than a decade. During much of that time, he was in Israeli prisons, but the command and control structure of Hamas remained intact, and continued to operate and expand.

The latest reports that are emerging, are that Yassin was having trouble hearing and was going deaf. He was also becoming senile, and was having difficulty speaking. This is in addition to the fact that he was a quadraplegic, who was also blind. In addition to that, he was very old, and was suffering general poor health, which was in addition to his numerous disabilities. If the Israelis had not knocked him off, he would probably have died of natural causes, over a period of months (or weeks), rather than years. From a strategic and military perspective, he was useless to Hamas as an organization. Israel probably did him a favor by knocking him off, a favor that my cost Israel dearly. Israel actually gave the dying man some value to the organization, in terms of rallying support for Hamas, and in recuitment of terrorists.

Where are the real political and military leaders of Hamas - those who procure weapons, explosives, and give orders for terrorist attacks? Most of the Hamas bigwigs and fat cats are in Syria. There are probably some in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, as well. Hamas leaders in the West Bank are low-level operatives. Remember the Hamas leader that Netanyahu tried to knock off in Jordan in the 1990s? That incident led to Netanyahu releasing Yassin from prison. The fact that Israel released Yassin from prison, means they knew that he had no control at all, over the executive functions of Hamas. He was just a figurehead. Yassin was useless over the past few years when he was alive. Now that he is dead, he will be much more dangerous.

In the last few months, the US has been doing a great job, pressuring Syria to expell the Hamas bigwigs from Damascus. Syria had already shut down the Hamas corporate offices. With the recent congressional sanctions, the US was working towards having the Hamas fat cats expelled from Syria. And any nation that gave them refuge would also be pressured to expell them. Also, once outside Syria, Israel could go after the Hamas bigwigs, the same way it went after the Black September terrorists who killed Israeli athletes in Munich in 1972.

Why did Ariel Sharon take out Yassin? No one doubts Arik's ability as a military commander. But if you talk to any Israeli, even those who voted for Sharon, they will tell you that Sharon is a cynical political operative, who, many times in the past, has let political consideration over-ride sensible military strategy.

[pinochet]

My worry now, is that the pressure that was being placed on Syria to expel the Hamas top executives from Damascus, will now be eased. This is because the US and Israel are now on the defensive, on the international diplomatic front.

Emotionally, it may have felt good to knock off Yassin. But strategically and militarily, it was not a good idea.

Yassin would most probably have passed away a couple of months from today, without incident. But Sharon gave him a quick Dr Kervokian death, and turned a blind, deaf, crippled, ill, dumb, old and senile man into a matyr for anti-Israeli fanatics. The Hamas top excecutives in Damascus could not be happier.

[SouthernFreebird]

A dead terrorist is always a good idea.

[Coroner]

Israels biggest mistake was not bombing and attacking Yassins funeral procession!

[vbmoneyspender]

But Sharon gave him a quick Dr Kervokian death, and turned a blind, deaf, crippled, ill, dumb, old and senile man into a matyr for anti-Israeli fanatics

We're in a war to the death. So I prefer dead martyrs to living terrorists.

[Cinnamon Girl]

Strangely, people have been saying for years that Arafat and Castro would drop dead, and they haven't. Don't buy into the "Yassin was just a harmless, elderly, wheelchair bound, grandfatherly, totally incapacitated vermin"-- he was still calling the shots-- hence the big funeral PRODUCTION.

[writer33]

"But strategically and militarily, it was not a good idea."


I think it was key to send a message to terrorists that Israel is not going to let up. Even though he was weak, it sent a clear signal that they are not going to sit idly by. I don't think it puts anyone on the defensive at all. If anything thing, it signals an all out aggressive attack on terrorism.

[Bobby777]

face it ... Israel will never be allowed to live in peace ... and they can't trade Hellfires or even tank shells for terrorists and terrorist leaders ... it will bleed them to death economically ... the Arabs are pushing for war with Israel but hope to weaken them first ...

this was a warning to Arafat but of course Arafat's greatest hope is to be forever martyred in the teary eyes of Kofi Annan and half the EU ... it's a no-win situation for Israel ... once a "Palestinian State" is established, it will become a total base of operations for the final destruction of Israel, including the construction of a military base funded by the same Saudis who hold telethons for the families of attackers ...

[L`enn]

I have never bought the idea that making someone a martyr is a bad idea.

[af_vet_1981]

Why America's Killing of Bin Laden, May Have Been a Mistake From a Military and Strategic Perspective

Dem talking points as to why Bush did it before an election ...

[Free ThinkerNY]

Let's not fight back. They may become angry and hate us more. Let's surrender. Better Muslim, than dead. Spain had the right idea. Let's all paint yellow streaks down our backs and beg for mercy. On second thought, three cheers for Israel. the country with more guts than all of Europe put together.

[Agnes Heep]

I think this was a message to Arafat and other top Hamas leaders. It will be interesting to see the extent of any revenge attacks that might take place.

[cardinal4]

Maybe they just wanted to kick some murdering PA terrorist ass. Screw world opinion.

[PUGACHEV]

If they were clever, Israel's assination of Yassin would not have been an end in itself, but rather the first step in a larger opperation based on Hammas' predictable response.

[MangoCrazy]

Israel will remove settlements from Gaza. This is a move to show that they are doing it from a position of strength versus a capitulation. They will take more Hamas leaders before it is over. Then they will pull all settlers out of Gaza. It will then not look like they were driven out by suicide bombers but did it while they were on top.

What position would you suggest they do it from? As a former Ambassador to Israel said, no terrorist leader in the occupied lands had as much charisma or political clout as Yassin. Hamas may well imploed without his direction. Look for more from the IDF before Hamas has a chance to hit. This will be very interesting.

[pinochet]

"....Strangely, people have been saying for years that Arafat and Castro would drop dead, and they haven't...."

It would have made much more sense, if the Israelis took out Yasser Arafat. Arafat, despite his Parkinson's ailment, is in relatively good health, and still in executive control of the Palestinian authority and the Al Aqsa Matyrs Brigade.

If Sharon had taken out Arafat, he would have knocked out a target that is militarily useful.

Maybe Sharon should have done exactly that.

[jolie560]

Does anyone know how many orders and directives were given out under Yassin's name? He may have been senile; but,while alive, anyone could cite Yassin as the director of any order, and who would know otherwise?

Now that he is confirmed dead--that game is up.

Same game as for OBL--he may be dead, but who knows? His orders are made to sound as if they come from him directly.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I'M SICK AND TIRED OF LILLY-LIVERED HAND WRINGERS CONDEMNING ISRAEL!! ISRAEL HAS BEEN ATTACKED DAY IN AND DAY OUT BY HAMAS THUGS

[ChicagoHebrew]

He wasn't that old-- he was only 68. Also, while he was disabled and blind, he had no serious diseases or health problems. He easily could have lived another 20 years.

[Cinnamon Girl]

What makes you think you know more about who's calling the shots than the Israelis?