Posted on 03/20/2004 11:12:30 AM PST by ambrose
NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004
Saturday March 20, 1:02 pm ET
Bush and Kerry In Dead Heat In Presidential Head-To-Head One Year After Start Of Iraq War, Majority (57%) Says U.S. Did the Right Thing In Going To War After Madrid Bombings, 48 Percent Say Attacks Close To U.S. Election Day 'Likely'
NEW YORK, March 20 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry are tied in a dead-heat that, if the election were held today, could see a repeat of the 2000 presidential election, according to the latest Newsweek poll; both Bush and Kerry received 48 percent among registered voters in a test match-up. In the Feb. 19-20 Newsweek poll, Kerry beat bush by 48 to 45 percent, but with a margin of error of three percentage points, that result was a statistical tie.
In a three-way match-up with Independent Ralph Nader, Bush would lead among registered voters with 45 percent, followed by Kerry at 43 percent and Nader at five percent, again representing a statistical dead-heat for Bush and Kerry. Bush's approval rating remains unchanged from the Feb. poll, holding at 48 percent (44% disapprove), and 46 percent of registered voters say they would like to see him re-elected, up slightly from 43 percent in the last Newsweek poll (50% disagree).
A majority (52%) of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush, 51 percent say the same of Kerry (10 percent say they "don't know" and three percent say they had never heard of Kerry). When asked which phrases describe Bush, 67 percent say he has strong leadership qualities (55% say the same of Kerry). Majorities also say Bush is personally likeable (69% vs. 60% for Kerry); says what he believes, not just what people want to hear (62% vs. 45% for Kerry); that they would trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis (56% vs. 46% for Kerry); and that he is honest and ethical (54% vs. 53% for Kerry). Less than half (49%) say Bush cares about people like them, (compared with 52% for Kerry). On Bush and Kerry's political leanings, 34 percent of registered voters say Bush is too conservative (60% disagree), while 38 percent say Kerry is too liberal (46% disagree).
When asked about Kerry's Senate vote last year against the administration's $87 billion request to fund the military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, almost half of registered voters (49%) say Kerry's vote will not affect their presidential vote; 27 percent say it will make them less likely to vote for him, 20 percent say more likely. Forty-eight percent say Kerry is politically motivated and changes his position when he thinks it will improve his image or help him win an election; 38 percent say he is thoughtful and changes his position as circumstances change or he learns more about an issue.
On which issue will be the most important in determining their vote for president this year, 24 percent of registered voters picked the economy, followed by terrorism and homeland security (19%), health care, including Medicare (14%), American jobs and foreign competition (13%), the situation in Iraq (12%), education (9%) and taxes (3%). Significant majorities say Bush would do a better job than Kerry handling terrorism and homeland security (56% vs. 35%) and the situation in Iraq (53% vs. 38%); 45 percent say he would do a better job of handling taxes (vs. 44% for Kerry). Voters say Kerry would do a better job handling the economy (47% vs. 43% for Bush), health care, including Medicare (53% vs. 37%), American jobs and foreign competition (50% vs. 39%) and education (46% vs. 43%).
One year after the start of the Iraqi war, a majority (57%) of Americans says the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq (37% disagree). Nonetheless, 36 percent say military action against Iraq has done more to increase the risk that large numbers of Americans will be killed in a future terrorist attack, (up from 28 percent in the Dec. 18-19 Newsweek poll); 30 percent say it has done more to decrease the risk of attack, 27 percent say it has made no difference.
And more than half of Americans (55%) think the administration misanalyzed or misinterpreted reports that indicated Iraq had banned weapons (up from 36% in a Newsweek poll last May), while 35 percent disagree. People are more evenly split on whether the administration purposely misled the public about evidence of banned weapons (46% agree, a record high in the Newsweek poll; 49% disagree). A majority (53%) says the amount of money the U.S. is spending for postwar operations in Iraq is too high (34% say it's about right). A majority (55%) also says the U.S. should reduce the number of military personnel in Iraq and begin bringing troops home; 27 percent say it should keep the same amount of troops, 10 percent say send more troops.
In the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, a majority (54%) of Americans say the attacks haven't had much effect on their opinion of the Bush administration's approach to fighting terror; 24 percent say they're more likely to think it's the right one, 12 percent say less likely. Almost half (48%) say it's likely that terrorist attacks will be carried out close to election day in the U.S. (42% disagree) in an attempt to influence the elections here. Sixty-six percent say it is likely that more terrorists attacks will be carried out against major U.S. cities, buildings or national landmarks between now and the November election (26% very likely, 40% somewhat likely).
A majority (51%) says it's likely that other countries in the U.S.-led coalition will follow the new Spanish government's lead in withdrawing troops from Iraq (36% disagree). Forty-two percent say in trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, the Bush administration has done the right amount to involve major allies and international organizations; 36 percent say not enough and 14 percent say too much.
This poll is part of the March 29 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, March 22). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older on March 18-19, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Adults.
Thus giving a defacto vote to the only other person who has a chance to win, Kerry.
Well I guess you also don't believe in reality and that reality is that either Bush or Kerry will be President.
I am not telling you who to vote for, just pointing out that what you said is contradictory to your claim that you hope Kerry doesn't win.
Anyway if Barry Goldwater was alive today, he would probably vote for Bush.
Terrorism, security, and the war in Iraq are the same thing.
The subject has eclipsed the economy as the most important issue, as it should.
Newsweak is still trying their best to change the subject.
Why do you think the unbiased polling firm polled "adults" rather than "likely voters"?
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