Officials Worry of Pre-Election Attack

AP ^ | 3-15-04 | TERENCE HUNT

[Indy Pendance]

WASHINGTON - Even before the bombings in Madrid, White House officials were worrying that terrorists might strike the United States before the November elections.

Now, with the Socialists' surprise election victory in Spain, analysts believe the ballot box rebuke of one of President Bush (news - web sites)'s closest allies in the war in Iraq (news - web sites) could embolden terrorists to try the same tactics in the United States to create fear and chaos.

"That's an amazing impact of a terrorist event, to change the party in power," said Jerrold Post, a former CIA (news - web sites) profiler who directs the political psychology program at George Washington University.

"The implications of this are fairly staggering," agreed political psychologist Stanley Renshon of City University of New York. "This is the first time that a terrorist act has influenced a democratic election. This is a gigantic, loud wakeup call. There's no one they'd like to have out of office more than George W. Bush."

In political terms, the question is whether an attack would cause Americans to rally around Bush or blame him for the nation's vulnerabilities.

Bush has made the war on terrorism his trademark issue, spending tens of billions of dollars at home and abroad in the name of fighting terrorists. Polls show it's his strongest suit in his re-election battle against Democrat John Kerry.

Traditionally, in times of peril, Americans have supported their president. After Sept. 11, 2001, Bush soared in the polls. That standing has softened over time but still remains strong, reinforced by the fact that America has not been hit again.

"People are critical of Bush in lots of ways but they still give him pretty good grades for dealing with the war on terrorism," said pollster Andy Kohut.

If there were an attack, he said, "the traditional effect is a rally."

But Kohut and others say the rally effect could diminish, particularly if Americans doubted Bush's ability to protect them or thought the war on Iraq played any part. His anti-terrorism standing might be weakened by other factors, too, such as doubts about his handling of the economy, analysts say.

How the Democrats responded to a possible attack would figure in as well.

"It has been made a political issue already," said Columbia University political scientist Robert Shapiro. "It's no longer the attack out of nowhere like 9-11 was," he said. "There's a context for it that's very different."

Kerry has been probing for Bush weaknesses on the international front, accusing the president of alienating allies at a time when the United States needed them the most. Kerry claims that some foreign leaders have told him privately that they would prefer him in the White House. The administration shot back Monday that Kerry ought to name names of foreign leaders, suggesting it would mean he lied if he failed to produce.

The administration has made no attempt to hide its concern about another attack.

"We live in an age of terror, in which ruthless enemies seek to destroy not only our nation and not only to destroy all free nations but to destroy freedom as a way of life," National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said last week. She spoke of "our worst nightmare" of attack by chemical, biological or nuclear weapons at the hands of terrorists.

Bush regularly talks about the threat in his stump speeches. In his State of the Union address, he said it was tempting to think, after more than two years, that the danger was behind Americans. "That hope is understandable, comforting and false," Bush said.

Brookings Institution political analyst Stephen Hess said issues such as terrorist attacks are troublesome for campaigns because they represent the unknown.

"Nothing bothers a politician or a strategist as much as trying to contemplate the unknown, trying to factor it in, what would happen."

[spald]

"Wonder if Washington is thinking about conditions that might be justified to automatically postpone an election?"

Ernest, I've read and appreciated your comments for a long time now and even have received FRmails from you concerning certain posts of mine. I can't believe you could state this so callously.

We are at war with global terrorism and this type of questioning of the intentions of our president and the current administration is quite severe.

You trolling?

[cvq3842]

Well said. It really demeans the dead, and ensures that there will be more of them, IMHO.

Although trying to think like these terrorists isn't easy - they apparently don't think rationally at all - one might suspect that they would HOLD OFF on attacking the US before our elections. It's possible that if there are no attacks here, Bush will fall victim to the "Churchill syndrome" - voters will think the threat is gone and vote for Kerry and his pie-in-the-sky promises.

Then again, I doubt these terrorists think that way at all. But the idea is out there. I hope and pray that we are not hit again (although I fear future attempts are inevitable) and I hope the Bush team, not the Kerry team, is in place to counter these murderers.

[jwalsh07]

Bush is vulnerable on both the southern and northern borders but if the attackers get wet crossing, he'll lose.

[Nebullis]

Will the United States be bombed into submission like Spain? I doubt it. More attacks will lead us to greater resolve against the terrorists and the nations that support them.

The Muslims are after Israel and it's becoming clear that the Europeans can be easily cowed into detaching from the United States. Next, Europe will be begging the Muslims "Take Israel! Just leave us in peace!"

[lizma]

I really don't think Americans would let another attack on our soil lead to appeasement. I think we would again band together and fight. That's who we are.

I've tried to discuss the concept of individual freedom with my Western European relatives. All I get is the deer in the head lights stare. Being ruled by monocracies for hundreds of year, they really can't fathom liberty the way we do. It will be their downfall and maybe ours as well.

The Eastern Europeans understand oppression while the Westerners have grow apathetic and lazy. The Easterners will be our allies in the future. I hope.

[Mo1]

In political terms, the question is whether an attack would cause Americans to rally around Bush or blame him for the nation's vulnerabilities.

They will rally around Bush

Because Spain just proved that losing your spine to these terrorists doesn't work.

It's the 1930's all over again .. and again the US will have to bail Europe's butt out of trouble

Thanks Spain

[ysoitanly]

I've had the tin hat glowing all week - 'funny' how we had these attacks at the Spanish and Russian elections and you just know FRANCE won't get hit. ok - TIN HAT OFF...

[ncphinsfan]

"Bush is vulnerable on both the southern and northern borders but if the attackers get wet crossing, he'll lose."

Bush isn't vulnerable we all are vulnerable and it infuriates me that this issue hasn't and won't come up during the campaign unless it's from some third party.
What do you think Kerry's solution to border security is? I've never heard him discuss this issue.

[Indy Pendance]

I really like to believe that, I know too many die hard liberals who think like the Spaniards. Talking to them, trying to convince them would be like them trying to convince me to become a liberal, it's never going to happen. I also know too may squishy middle of the roaders who will raise a moistened finger on election day and vote which ever way the wind is blowing. If Kerry is elected, it's the end of the free world, and frankly, with the media in full attack force, it's a real possibility. I hope I'm wrong, but, from where I am, it's a real possibility, and it's scary.

[Arkinsaw]

Way to let 200 of your countrymen die in vain.

Yes, they died in vain.

All the powers of this earth will be turning to throw George Bush out of office.

[The Hound Passer]

'Next, Europe will be begging the Muslims "Take Israel! Just leave us in peace!" '

They are already doing that. There is little love for Israel in Europe.

[Dog Gone]

I share your general assessment, but please understand that this vote was not unanimous. There are many Spaniards who still stand by the US and are smarting from the outrage we are sending to their country.

I'm not sure quite what to make of this. Al-Qaida is certainly thrilled, and I think democracies around the globe might well consider postponing elections in times of national emergency.

But all this happened in a very short period of time, and drawing long-term conclusions from it is probably wrong.

[jwalsh07]

Yes, you are correct of course but we were speaking political consequences. Kerry's positio is far to the left of Bush. They are both to the left of the American public. Whoever is in office will pay a political price and some Americans will pay the ultimate price.

It is also my view that another attack will not net the desired effect in America however. We will not appease, we will demand that Congress declare war anew and hunt down and kill those responsible, their enablers and those that harbored them no matter who is President.

[Intolerant in NJ]

[familyofman]

Is a terrorist attack close to an election more terrible than an attack after an election? Putting the concern over an attack in political terms really cheapens the concern over all future attacks.

Does this mean we will be at Code Orange for months before the election?

[umgud]

My guess; Kerry has less a chance than algore had to beat Bush. We're being buried in Kerry propaganda daily by him and his liberal mainstream media cohorts. This is all bluster. Trust me, the nation ain't that liberal and they don't want Kerry as their standard bearer in the war on terror.

[Mo1]

The die hard liberals well never ever change ... They hate anyone that is not like them.

it's the moderate Dems that the Kerry Camp are worried about and yes I agree they can be squishy middle of the roaders .. but when push comes to shove .. they know that we have to win this WOT .. or they will forever live in fear.

That is not something they want to live with.

Washington Times did a poll and 67% said they think the terrorists want Kerry to win

[Mo1]

France is just as much a target as the rest of Europe .. and they know it

That is why France, Germany and other Europe Countries have called for an emergency meeting regarding security .. they too know what will happen because of the Spain Elections

[Savage Beast]

"We live in an age of terror, in which ruthless enemies seek to destroy not only our nation and not only to destroy all free nations but to destroy freedom as a way of life."~Condoleezza Rice~

Yes, Islamonazis, on the one hand, and "Liberals", on the other.

[Indy Pendance]

Thanks, I read things here, then live life there and the two just don't gel, but, that's my own small universe. Still, it's unnerving at times. Know what I mean?