Kerry Gaining Ground (Bush 45%, Kerry 42%)

RasmussenReports.com ^ | Tuesday, January 27, 2004 | RasmussenReports.com

[Momaw Nadon]

January 27, 2004--Senator John Kerry has pulled to within three points of George W. Bush in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll. Yesterday, Kerry trailed by five points.

Kerry is the most competitive of all Democrats in a general election match-up with the President. He is also the top choice among all Democrats to win the party's Presidential nomination.

Senator John Edwards trails the President by just five points, 45% to 40%.

Before the Iowa caucuses, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and retired General Wesley Clark were the most competitive Democrats. Both now trail Bush by double digit margins.

Survey results show that a generic Democrat polls better than any individual candidate at this point in time.

These results are from a national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.

Survey data showing the race between President Bush and a generic Democrat is updated daily on this site by noon.

[Final Authority]

Can one imagine, Bush and Kerry, face to face in an election year. Kerry went to St. Paul's School in Concord, NH, very exclusive, Bush, Phillips Andover, just 40 miles to the south. Both went to Yale, Skull and Crossbones inductees as well. I say they were well chosen. With either of them, the elite don't lose. With Dean, he can't be controlled, or with Edwards. They also trotted out an Oxonian, Rhodes scholar in Clark. If Kerry couldn't pull it out they had Clark to toe the line.

Just a thought for further discussion.

[Moby Grape]

I strongly disagree...when the dems get news face time, as they are now, we suddenly see polls with Bush at 45, Kerry at 42.....public visibility makes a difference...plus, as I said, the GOP has a history of NOT answering or answering too late.

[Toespi]

I totally agree with you, something funny has happened here and it wasn't Dean's primal scream either. The media has latched onto this electibility scheme proposed by the "powers that be" and the dem base has taken the bait. I have total confidence in Bush and Rove. I thought it was quite interesting the confidence Bush must have felt to make the immigration proposal at the time he did, knowing full well how it would affect some of his base. There has to be something else he knows that will counter-balance this issue and it has to be big.

[evad]

..we suddenly see polls with Bush at 45, Kerry at 42....

I would simply say that these polls at this time are as meaningless and wasteful as throwing money into a bunch of ads would be, at this time.

[Consort]

I wonder if the Clinton Conservatives will back Kerry in November. It could be the deciding factor.

[Meldrim]

"With either of them, the elite don't lose"

Final Authority, you need to work with what you have. The Reagan-Republicans have not had a real candidate to support since Senator Laxalt threw in the towel in 1988.

Incidently, a case can be made that Reagan was the cause of this problem. Had he simply gone with the advice of Nancy, he would have chosen Laxalt as VP in 1980 and we'd have likely been spared much of the nonsense that went on from 1988 onward.

[Final Authority]

Who is a Clinton conservative? I think the deciding factor is the yea or nay referendum on GWB's Presidency.

[Consort]

Who is a Clinton conservative?

They are like Reagan Democrats, except that they help to elect Liberals instead of Conservatives.

I think the deciding factor is the yea or nay referendum on GWB's Presidency.

True, the voters will decide and the voters include Clinton Conservatives as well as Reagan Democrats and all the others.

[Final Authority]

You are correct. Let's see. We re-elect GWB and he says, I'll see that $15 billion to teach Africans to keep it in their whatever, and raise you another 10 million wet backs. Yea, right, we can work with him, right into to the third world of anti-constitutional elitism.

[mhking]

Senator John Kerry has pulled to within three points of George W. Bush in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll

Even more reason not to piss off your base!

[Final Authority]

Reagan Democrats were a defined group by the work they did, often trades and heavy factory work, by the bike they rode, Harley-Davidson, and by the fact they believed in God and often they were veterans. Can you similarly define a Clinton conservative? I'm asking this because I think you may be on to something.

[TwoSue]

That's probably because he only spoke to live voters?

[Consort]

I don't think they belong to specific occupations, but more to a mindset. They want to send a message and/or teach a politician a lesson with regard to the negative consequences to themselves and to others. The want it their way or no way and are motivated by ideology above everything else, from what I can tell.

[Moby Grape]

If ads are a waste of time, at this time...why do the OTHER side think they are useful? Have you forgotten that we CAN'T run ads to tell the truth about the dark side 90 days before the elections?

[Dont Mention the War]

This poll is meaningless for one very simple reason, that it's comparing apples and oranges. For GWB, it's a referendum on his entire presidency up to this point. But for Kerry, it's about little more than name recognition. To the people polled, Kerry's that nice smiling guy they've seen on TV a lot over the last week, who must be somebody special because he saved us all from that weirdo Howard Dean.

So this poll is combining the anti-Bush voters with that huge 20% of the electorate that we got to know so well during the 2000 campaign: The Undecideds. You remember them, the people who threw their support to whichever candidate they felt best about at the particular moment they were asked. Almost all of them will go for the unknown Other, as long as Mr. Other seems like a nice guy at first glance.

But they'll only go for him as long as he remains unknown to them.

So let's see what this poll says in October.

[evad]

If ads are a waste of time, at this time...why do the OTHER side think they are useful? Have you forgotten that we CAN'T run ads to tell the truth about the dark side 90 days before the elections?

I'm not really sure which ads you're talking about but remember, the 'other side' is running an entirely different campaign than 'our side'. Each of the remaining dwarves is doing whatever they can to get the nomination.

Once we find out who the nominee is we can let loose the guns. Until then, keep yer powder dry...so to speak.

As I said before, there are always things we can and should be doing daily to debunk liberals and liberalism, election or not.

[evad]

Lemme ask you a question..
if running pubbie ads is the right thing to do and they are so useful, why aren't the pubbies doing it?

Are they just stoooopid or do you know something they don't?

[bushfamfan]

We can see Kerry's basically running on 'I'm a Vietnam veteran'. That's it. People aren't focusing on anything yet. Kerry's got a lot of problems. His behavior after Vietnam can be considered traitorous-the throwing of the medals and most importantly, his statements regarding American GIs raping, murdering, this and that in Vietnam. I think those statements he made regarding those fighting in Vietnam is the most despicable. And on to his liberal Massachussetts Senator career. His vote against the Gulf War in '91, his vote for this Iraq war and his subsuquent reversal. He's showing himself to be very Wesley Clark-esque. He's all over the place and doesn't have a clue. I still want a commercial of Kerry alongside Clintoon in discussion of foreign policy.

[KC_Conspirator]

Think about this - Mike Dukakis got 46% of the vote. Is that not scary?

[HankReardon]

Not even close, Kerry has a campaign of soundbites and cliches, "invest in health care in education" What does that one mean? "Bush Recession" the recession started in March of 2000, what's he talking about? "tax cuts for the wealthy" heard it before, the more you make, the more you pay, the more your tax cut, duh! "special interests", who isn't a sprcial interest?, He just can't mention the unions, the teachers, the career welfare as special interest. Easy dunk all the way around. BRING IT ON! BRING IT ON! BRING IT ON!