2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	83.0	10	0
Arkansas	72.0	6	0
California	27.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	27.5	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	10.0	0	3
Florida	69.0	27	0
Georgia	92.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	43.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	72.5	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	47.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	12.5	0	12
Michigan	58.0	17	0
Minnesota	58.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	73.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	77.5	5	0
New Hampshire	63.0	4	0
New Jersey	27.5	0	15
New Mexico	71.5	5	0
New York	28.0	0	31
North Carolina	91.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.5	7	0
Oregon	62.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	63.0	21	0
Rhode Island	12.5	0	4
South Carolina	95.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	88.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	9.5	0	3
Virginia	92.5	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[Lancey Howard]

I believe that New York has got to be a lot better than 28%.
I mean, the state does have a Republican governor, and the city did elect a guy who ran as a Republican, and if Rudy Giuliani goes on TV and asks New Yorkers to vote for Dubya, they will.

I think New York is most definitely in play.

[Peace will be here soon]

You know what, your right. I just spent some time crunching the numbers from 2000. Even with a "high" voter turn out in STL and KC , GW would have still won the state. Voter turn out was very low in 2000 in KC ( 46% ) and STL ( 39% ), with Bush winning Missouri by about 78,000 votes. There really is not enough there , in the Rat strongholds , to make up the difference. Good news for sure.

It is obvious Missouri has taken a turn to the right in recent years, even with Demorat Holden being elected as Governor ( currently being challenge by state auditor Sara McCaskill in the guber. primary). I hope he gets the nod though so we can run him out of office. I think if she gets the nod, it may be tougher to get a Republican Governor in.

One bit of info some around here may not know:

Missouri has voted for the winner in every presidential election of the 20th century, except in 1956 when voters backed Adlai Stevenson, thereby earning the sobriquet of "bellwhether state."

Keep an eye on Missouri folks !!

[CasearianDaoist]

I really doubt that NY is in play. Do you have some new data on this?

[NEPA]

I doubt that Bush will take PA. My own guess is maybe he has 47-48% of the vote.

PA lags the rest of the country in economic recovery, at least my part of PA does. Add to that the fraud machine that Govenor Fast Eddie will be rolling out and it's really an uphill battle for Bush in PA.

[Alberta's Child]

I don't think Bush will take PA, either. But if it's a close race in that state, I think Bush wins handily elsewhere in the U.S. If the Democrats have to spend a lot of time and money in Pennsylvania, I think they're going to get overwhelmed in other states they won in 2000 (I'm thinking of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa in particular).

[jveritas]

The logic and the facts on the ground tell us that President Bush is favored to win in 2004. However, we cannot take this for granted at all because many things can happen from now until November 2nd 2004 that may reduce the chances of President Bush victory. We need to work extremely hard for this victory. Let's roll.