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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 01/21/2004 10:56:54 AM PST by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama 95.0 9 0
Alaska 94.0 3 0
Arizona 83.0 10 0
Arkansas 72.0 6 0
California 27.0 0 55
Colorado 86.0 9 0
Connecticut 27.5 0 7
Delaware 42.5 0 3
District of Columbia 10.0 0 3
Florida 69.0 27 0
Georgia 92.0 15 0
Hawaii 13.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 43.0 0 21
Indiana 89.0 11 0
Iowa 72.5 7 0
Kansas 91.5 6 0
Kentucky 93.0 8 0
Louisiana 90.0 9 0
Maine 47.5 0 4
Maryland 17.5 0 10
Massachusetts 12.5 0 12
Michigan 58.0 17 0
Minnesota 58.0 10 0
Mississippi 96.0 6 0
Missouri 73.0 11 0
Montana 95.0 3 0
Nebraska 95.0 5 0
Nevada 77.5 5 0
New Hampshire 63.0 4 0
New Jersey 27.5 0 15
New Mexico 71.5 5 0
New York 28.0 0 31
North Carolina 91.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 78.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.5 7 0
Oregon 62.0 7 0
Pennsylvania 63.0 21 0
Rhode Island 12.5 0 4
South Carolina 95.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 88.0 11 0
Texas 98.0 34 0
Utah 95.0 5 0
Vermont 9.5 0 3
Virginia 92.5 13 0
Washington 48.0 0 11
West Virginia 62.5 5 0
Wisconsin 61.5 10 0
Wyoming 95.0 3 0
Totals   355 183


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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To: Momaw Nadon
Very flawed.

This is not accurate at all. For example Michigan, which went for gore, cant even elect any republican candidate for a statewide office and now even has a democrat female governor. With its high unemployment rate, there is absolutely no chance at all it will go for bush. Same with other states with high unemployment.

Instead of polling people who have extra money to use to bet on sports, maybe you should make a projection of who is going to win by polling the people who lost their factories and jobs to asian free trade and who are now standing in unemployment lines in each state? Perhaps you might get different results.

41 posted on 01/21/2004 1:20:32 PM PST by waterstraat
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To: Momaw Nadon
True. I guess we shall see. I hope you bring THIS thread back to life after the election!
42 posted on 01/21/2004 3:23:03 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: So Cal Rocket
True, I'd bet everything in my possession that Bush won't win DC.
43 posted on 01/21/2004 3:27:05 PM PST by optik_b (follow the money)
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To: gridlock
He gave free prescription drugs to every old person.
44 posted on 01/21/2004 3:28:18 PM PST by optik_b (follow the money)
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To: Momaw Nadon
"Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money."

Not really. Odds merely tell you how people are betting. The object of the oddsmaker is to get 50% of the people betting on each side. So unless you have a lot of confidence in the gamblers than there is no reason to believe they are "very accurate"
45 posted on 01/21/2004 3:30:02 PM PST by optik_b (follow the money)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Bump!
46 posted on 01/21/2004 3:33:15 PM PST by Jedi Master Yoda (Try not. Do. Or do not. There is no try.)
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To: gridlock
They elected Harris, for one. Jeb Bush got re-elected by 10 points, for another.

I think Florida is pretty safe.
47 posted on 01/21/2004 3:47:18 PM PST by RinaseaofDs (Only those who dare truly live - CGA 88 Class Motto)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Missouri: Bush 73% of winning the state.

2000 Missouri Pres. election : Bush 50% Gore 47%. This state is as flip flopping as it gets. Don`t forget, it went for Clinton twice !! I think that number should be closer to 55%. Kansas City and St.Louis will determine which way Missouri falls. High turn out in these cities means Bush will have a tough ride. That is exactly how it played out in 2000. Turnout was not as high as it could have been in STL and KC, so Bush won the state. Hopefully, all the crack downs on voter fraud will make some difference.
48 posted on 01/21/2004 6:08:14 PM PST by Peace will be here soon (Beware, there are some crazy people around here !!! And I could be one of them !!)
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To: waterstraat
With [Michigan's] high unemployment rate, there is absolutely no chance at all it will go for bush.

I agree that Michigan will be one of the more difficult swing states for Bush to win. As of the moment, I'd project it to be a Dem victory. But I wouldn't presume to say Bush has a 0% chance of winning there. The East Lansing-based Mitchell Poll put Bush's approval rating in MI at 63% last week. That's ahead of the national average, despite the high unemployment. Bush will have a realistic chance here.

49 posted on 01/23/2004 5:01:26 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: gridlock
This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

Better voting machines?

50 posted on 01/23/2004 5:16:00 AM PST by CharacterCounts
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To: BlackRazor
I agree that Michigan will be one of the more difficult swing states for Bush to win. As of the moment, I'd project it to be a Dem victory. But I wouldn't presume to say Bush has a 0% chance of winning there. The East Lansing-based Mitchell Poll put Bush's approval rating in MI at 63% last week. That's ahead of the national average, despite the high unemployment. Bush will have a realistic chance here.

Bush has a chance in Michigan - more so than in 2000. The people up north and in the western part of the state need to turn out in droves for that to happen. I was amazed at Bush's approval ratings here. The Detroit News did a survey.

From the Detroit News: Republican President George W. Bush appears to be on solid footing to capture this state in his re-election bid. He has an overall 63 percent job approval rating, the survey shows.
Michigan voters seem pretty content with their elected leaders right now, Detroit News pollster Steve Mitchell said. They’re very happy with the governor and also happy with the leadership President Bush is providing.

Detroit News 1/19/04

51 posted on 01/23/2004 5:25:56 AM PST by Ragirl
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To: CharacterCounts; gridlock
One of the "changes in Florida" is that the numbnuts at the networks have discovered that the Florida Panhandle is NOT on Eastern Standard Time, so they should wait another hour before calling Florida for any candidate. That change alone, all other things equal, would have assured Bush a solid win by 20,000+, rather than a three-month contest over whether he won. Just a thought.

Congressman Billybob

Click here, then click the blue CFR button, to join the anti-CFR effort (or visit the "Hugh & Series, Critical & Pulled by JimRob" thread).

52 posted on 01/23/2004 6:50:01 PM PST by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com Visit. Join. Help. Please.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
You've listed Maine with a 47% chance for Bush. I don't dispute this, but I would rate the rural second district much higher, the urban first district much lower. Remember, Maine and Nebraska can divide electoral votes. It was late in election eve 2000 before the networks called the 2nd district of Maine for Gore.
53 posted on 01/23/2004 6:51:28 PM PST by Vigilanteman
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To: Dog Gone
Hey now leave New Hampshire right here the rest of New England can go back and Rule Britania though ;)
54 posted on 01/23/2004 7:59:49 PM PST by DM1
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To: Peace will be here soon
The demographics of Missouri have changed. Look at the assembly and senate. The 2002 elections showed that the electorial balance has shifited to the suburbs and rural areas.
55 posted on 01/23/2004 8:00:58 PM PST by Bombard
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To: rudypoot
There are two new polls out tonight...I know they are probably push polls but one showed Kerry beating Bush and the other from Fox News has Bush at 49% and Kerry at 42%.....the rats are going to pick Kerry now that some polls are showing he can compete with Bush...Kerry will be their candidate.
56 posted on 01/23/2004 8:10:58 PM PST by mystery-ak (Almighty God, Embrace with Your invincible armour our loved ones in all branches of the service.)
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To: .cnI redruM
This is almost the scenario I have said for months now - Bush wins all of his 2000 states and some more, while the dems win some (but not all) of their 2000 states and no more.

I have been consistently saying 325-350 EVs. The truth is too many states are just out of reach for us with large urban centers, large pockets of dem voters that won't budge, etc.

The good news is that this won't be nearly as dramatic as the numbers may suggest at first blush: of the Dems 180-190 EVs, 77 are CA, WA, OR, and Hawaii (note that the analysis gives Oregon to Bush but I write off the whole left coast of the lower 48.

In other words, its over before the Cali polls are closed.
57 posted on 01/23/2004 8:16:29 PM PST by HitmanLV (I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.)
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To: bankwalker
Jeb doing a good job, less chance or voter fraud next time around, military votes will be counted, incumbant factor, 9/11, ... just to name a few right off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more.

Those tens of thousands of Floridians who didn't bother to vote when the state was called early for Gore probably won't make that mistake again.

58 posted on 01/23/2004 8:20:32 PM PST by alnick (A vote for anyone but George W. Bush for president in 2004 is a vote to strengthen Al Qaeda.)
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To: alnick
bump and bookmark
59 posted on 01/23/2004 8:22:08 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Great post!

If you take all of those states where Bush has between a 50% and a 70% chance of winning, that totals 101 electoral votes. If Bush nabs just half of those votes, he still ends up with 304 to the rats' 234. Looking good.

Very unscientific, but there you go.

60 posted on 01/23/2004 8:34:25 PM PST by Lancey Howard
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