Posted on 12/26/2003 7:45:43 AM PST by Dog Gone
The latest attempt on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s life has reinforced feelings in India that Islamabad without the general would throw a question mark over the region’s future, analysts said on Friday.
Thursday’s suicide attack, which left 14 people dead, has also raised concern in New Delhi for the safety of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and other South Asian leaders due in Pakistan in less than two weeks for a summit.
Since Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, New Delhi has rarely passed up an opportunity to criticize him as undemocratic and demand that he take more action against pro-Pakistani Islamic rebels fighting Indian rule in Kashmir.
While Indian policymakers still have little love for Musharraf, they understand him, believe he can be influenced by the United States and are unsure who else could lead Pakistan, according to analysts.
“If he suddenly disappeared, it would affect the international campaign against terror, the stability of Afghanistan and disrupt the very, very slow process of normalization that India and Pakistan have started,” said J.N. Dixit, an Indian former foreign secretary and ambassador to Islamabad.
“Succession would probably come from the armed forces, but who knows who would come to power and what the reaction of the Islamic parties would be,” Dixit told AFP.
Islamic hardliners have been critical of Musharraf and his prime minister, Zafarullah Jamali, on a score of moves seen as conciliatory toward New Delhi or Washington, such as initiating a November 26 truce on the Kashmir borders.
India and Pakistan in recent months have also resumed transport links and full diplomatic ties that were severed during a military standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors triggered by a December 2001 attack on the Indian parliament.
India quickly condemned Thursday’s bid on Musharraf’s life, as it did after a similar attack aimed at the Pakistani ruler on December 14.
“Frankly, it is not desirable for India right now to have any unexpected developments,” said Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, deputy director of the government-funded Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.
“The implications for India are the positive tenor in [India-Pakistan] relations. If there is any unexpected change it would lead to a lot of turbulence in getting this back on track,” he said.
A headline in The Times of India on Friday read that “Musharraf is crucial for India”.
“The attacks have suddenly confronted the [Indian] government with the possibility of uncertainty and chaos in Pakistan,” the newspaper said.
Vajpayee is due to make his first visit to Pakistan in five years when he attends the January 4-6 Islamabad summit of seven South Asian leaders.
The two assassination bids against Musharraf both took place just outside Islamabad in Rawalpindi, which is the headquarters of the Pakistani military.
Agreed. This should not only bother India. The spectre of a nuclear bomb-possessing country like Pakistan with an ignorant Saudi madrassa-indoctrinated /Taliban-loving/Sharia-deluded/al Qaeda-sympathetic population getting taken over by nutzoids will only further Osama's plans and make the War on Terror more problematic.
That's news to me.
The extremists, and the fundamentalist nuclear scientists who dominate Pakistan's nuclear programme, are also furious at Gen Musharraf for accepting demands by the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency to investigate the sale of Pakistani nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea.
Fundamentalism is also growing in the army. After a tip-off by the CIA, at least five army officers were arrested in October for helping al-Qa'eda members in Pakistan's border regions with Afghanistan.
Despite all these threats, Gen Musharraf has always tried to appease the Islamic parties and his half-hearted crackdowns on extremist groups have only been carried out because of inordinate pressure from the Americans.
Until recently the army has allowed extremist groups to continue crossing into Indian Kashmir to battle Indian troops, while the intelligence agencies are turning a blind eye to the resurgent Taliban.
He has also done little to root out fundamentalists in the army's officer corps. His unwillingness to take the fundamentalists seriously is now proving to be a direct threat to his life.
He's been saying the right things for a couple of years, such as calling for closing down the madrassas that teach jihad. But they're still open.
He can't ride the fence anymore.
General Pervez Musharraf, the second of three brothers, was born in Delhi on August 11, 1943. He spent his early childhood in Turkey, from 1949 to 1956, owing to his father's deputation in Ankara.
On return to Pakistan, he received his education from Saint Patrick's High School, Karachi, and Forman Christian College, Lahore. Later in 1961, he joined the Pakistan Military Academy and was commissioned in Artillery Regiment in 1964. He fought in the Indo-Pakistan War of 1965 as a young officer, and was awarded Imtiazi Sanad for gallantry. He volunteered to be a commando, and remained in the Special Services Group for seven years. He also participated in the Indo-Pak War of 1971 as a Company Commander in the Commando Battalion.
We should get the Indians on board with this, too: their security and that of the entire region would depend on a swift, decisive strike against the Islamofascists before they get their hands on the nukes, and Indian cooperation would ensure its success.
Now, here, we have a potentially disastrous situation brewing. Is it the number one story? Is it even top ten? Are the dem candidates banging on their drums about the potential catastrophe in Pakistan? No. It's all about Iraq- a current issue. You don't hear them saying what they'd do to sort out Pakistan. Instead you hear them talking about what they would not have done 9 months ago. This is the problem with any populist party. Because of the dynamics of appealing to voters instead of having any real platform and issues, they can't and won't talk about serious problems that the public isn't interested in. The past is gone. Nobody can go back and unmake Operation Iraqi Freedom. It happened and that's the reality now. It is useless, as such, to continually carp on it now as if getting elected will make the war un-happen.
This situation in Pakistan could easily dwarf all our other problems combined if the fundies were to get their hands on those nukes. After it happens (if it were to happen), you'll find a lot of 20/20 hindsight among all the dems currently running for the office of president but you don't hear anything out of them now.
However, I tend to believe that the Pakistani army will not permit the Islamic fundamentalists to take control of the government and the nukes under any circumstances. That may be wishful thinking on my part, but I think it's correct.
Much like the Turkish army command has kept that country on the path of secular democracy by stepping in with periodic coups (but relinquishing power to civilian authorities in a fairly short time), the Pakistani army has been the guarantor of constitutional authority in that troubled nation.
I don't think that fantasies of an American/Indian operation to "de-nuke" Pakistan are realistic. The costs of failure would be too high, and the costs of success would be very high, also.
It would be the last resort if the extremists defied my expectations and did gain control of the government, but it's in the interest of the US, India, and Pakistan, for all three to cooperate in eliminating the extremist threat within Pakistan to prevent that from happening.
There is no Democrat out there with the global vision to direct such an effort, nor would there be any political among them to do so.
Hmmm. I wish I could agree with you there. There have been recent reports of Mushy trying to purge members of his officer's corps who are sympathetic to bin Laden and Mullah Omar. Also, I think it is reasonable to believe that members of the military have been helping to coordinated these assassination attempts.
The thing is, immediately after a coup/assassination would be a very vulnerable time. Things would be in a state of flux. If bin Laden is the one engineering these assassination attempts, it stands to reason he has some sort of plan to implement if he pulls it off. He could either go for complete control of the country using a portion of the military as a proxy or just to get his hands on one nuke warhead. He doesn't need the entire arsenal- just the one. If they are not all in one place (and I doubt they are) it would be easier for him to focus on and corrupt/enlist just one military commander to help him gain a nuke in the confusion following a coup.
This is exactly how I see it as well. There wouldn't be any time for diplomacy or the UN circle jerk. Immediate and bold action would be necessary. It could turn ugly very quickly. The important thing would be neutralizing the nukes. Whether that be through cruise missile or tactical nuke strikes at their known (or best know locations), massive bombing of same or SpecOps type snatch missions- something would definitely have to be done.
India might take matters into its own hands as well by simply employing a preemptive first strike to accomplish the same.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.