[Cicero]

I don't think Musharref is riding the fence, I think he's riding the tiger. And it's well known that once you get up on the tiger's back, there's no easy way to get off.

In his speech the the nation, which he gave to explain why he was making a deal with Bush--who had made him an offer he could not refuse--he spent ten out of twenty minutes discussing religious matters, which the New York Times did not see fit to print, because the New York Times doesn't understand religion.

What he did was to retell the story of Muhammed's early career. How he made a solemn alliance with the Jews of Medina, because it was necessary at the time, and then broke it. Then how he made a solemn alliance with the Infidels of Mecca, and then broke that. What that said to me is that he was telling his people that it was necessary to make a pact with Bush, but that he would break the pact when the time came to do so.

Subsequent events, however, have painted Musharref into a corner, or placed him on the back of the tiger. He CAN'T break the pledge with America, or he will be swept away. He CAN'T go after the Muslim fundamentalists, because they belong to his own base of support--intelligence and the army. The secular civilians would prefer to bring back the old corrupt civilian regime. So, he has no choice but to play it one day at a time and try to survive.

I agree that if he is killed, things will be much worse. Terrorism will be back in charge, and we will have to confront it with force rather than persuasion.

[July 4th]

If Musharraf falls, and is replaced by an al Qaeda-sympathetic leader, we will have an instant war on our hands. It will be necessary for our military, probably by aircraft, to get in there and destroy every single thing that even hints of being part of their nuclear program. Hopefully, we are prepared for such a scenario. Because if we aren't, Israel's first, then New York.