Posted on 06/15/2016 11:36:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In the most pivotal counties in seven critical swing states, Donald Trump has a decided edge, according to a recent set of polling data collected by Axiom Strategies, the firm of Ted Cruz's former campaign manager Jeff Roe.
Axiom identified seven counties in seven battleground states that have proven to be bellwethers in the last four elections. Trump, so far, has an edge in four of them, Hillary Clinton has an edge in two, and they're statistically tied in one. The selected counties correctly predicted the statewide result in each of the last four elections and came closest to the actual statewide margin of victory.
The counties where Trump is ahead include Watauga County, North Carolina (+4), Sandusky County, Ohio (+5), Luzerne County, Pennsylvania (+17) and Washoe County, Nevada (+12).
Clinton, on the other hand, holds modest leads in Jefferson County, Colorado (+4) and Loudoun County, Virginia (+8).
The two are statistically tied in Tampa's Hillsborough County, Florida.
Several caveats apply to this polling — including the fact that the general election is barely underway, so voter attitudes are far from settled. The poll was conducted using a combination of 20 percent live calls and 80 percent automated calls, a weighting that tilts toward a methodology that hasn't been totally reliable. Each poll, all of which were in the field from June 3 to June 5, also relied on sample sizes that varied widely, from 653 likely votes in North Carolina to nearly 1,700 in difficult-to-poll Nevada.
Make AMERICA great again for all GREAT AMERICANS!
I think we are going to be sitting here from a year from now saying President Trump....
I hear it in the gossip grape vine, and I feel it in my bones....people at the stores are talking, laughing, have smiles on their faces...
Americans are getting out more, sitting on their patios, talking with neighbors, doing more things like they used to...
Oh yes, Trump will be the next POTUS!!!
You are probably correct. But cruz would have gotten slaughtered too. Trump got jeb off the ticket. Trump has helped smoke.out lots of disingenuous republicans. Basically we are screwed no matter what
I like beat him like a drum...
I saw one a while back that really packs an whallop:
Beat Hillary like a baby fur seal...
that will drive animal rights people into Trump derangement syndrome...
Jeff Roe just wants to get employed by Trump now that Cruz is toast.
In past elections, I have thought polls were wrong, but frequently turned out we lost as the polls indicated.
However, how good were the polls during this year’s primaries? I didn’t follow those polls closely, but seems to my memory, they were not very close to the actual results.
He want to make profit from this tool. This guy is nasty. Trump should stay away from him.
Polls for most if not all caucus states were waaay off as they did not account for Lyin’ Ted’s voting fraud shenanigans.
Polls for the normal voting primaries were much more accurate.
Dukakis was up huge over Bush at this point in 88.
Joined up on Jun 10th to be a concern troll. You guys are so transparent.
Brace yourslef, Hillary is going to get slaughtered in November.
+17 in PA? If he takes PA can she still win?
I guess he would still need to take VA, MI, or FL.
watch the market
if it is up for the three months prior to november, hillary wins
if it is down......trump wins.
While acknowledging the effect of the steady influx of communist freeloaders, and the perpetual Democrat voter fraud, I will say this:
I have not trusted polling in... ever.
As far as I am concerned, pollsters are just another form of Democrat propagandist.
Leftists do not generally produce; they rather usurp and pervert. They infiltrate all the bastions of information - newspapers, universities, et cetera - seeking to control what people think.
It is not accidental that the “fact-checking” sources (like Snopes) are always run by leftists claiming to be neutral. It is the same with the pollsters.
The game is rigged: They rig it by the questions they ask, the questions they don’t ask, the way they frame the questions, the way they order the questions, all in an attempt to get the result that they want: to encourage their (communist) side and dispirit the other (conservative) side.
We won’t really know the truth of it until the actual voting takes place.
I for one do not believe that Clinton holds a clear advantage over Trump.
Unfortunately that's an apples to oranges comparison. What does give me pause is finding out that the dems have been oversampled +8 in some of these polls.
I am on Twitter.
_________________
What does that mean?
I’m not a troll. People said Romney was going to win in a landslide. I am telling people to not think it will be easy to win. Again, the Republicans have lost the popular vote in four of the past five elections.
Your concern is noted.
This is a good sign. There has been so much bad news lately.
My best friend just called me worried sick about that stupid poll showing Hillary leading Trump by 12 pts. I told her to stop looking at polls. This election is going to be Trump in a landslide but the leftwing pollsters will continue to attempt to manipulate right up to Nov 8th.
Like you said I can feel it in my bones.
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