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2012 Romney 206, red .. Obama 303, blue ... 270 needed to win blue
Posted on 04/12/2016 4:57:34 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Niall Ferguson is trying to wrap his mind around the idea of a Ted Cruz presidency. It is not easy, but Ferguson, arguably our most prominent economic historian, professor at Harvard and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is up for the job.
He notes, with some accuracy, that Cruz is “a politics machine.” This means that Cruz has out-organized the other candidates politically. He has a stronger political machine across the country. Among other things, his local political operatives have chosen delegates who, no matter who they must vote for on the first round, are sympathetic to him.
Why does it matter? Because the first test of a presidential candidate is whether or not he is capable of running a campaign. Ferguson is correct to note that Cruz, whose most significant executive experience was running the office of the solicitor general in Texas, is seriously out-organizing a candidate who supposedly brings gobs of executive experience to the race.
One notes that Trump still has Roger Stone—threatening delegates who vote against Trump with physical violence. And now Trump has a seasoned political operative, Paul Manafort, running his delegate operation. Manafort yesterday denounced Cruz for using “Gestapo tactics.” It’s called an argumentum ad Hitlerum… it is the kind of argument that the left indulges regularly. Coming from the Republican front runner, it smacks of sore loser.
If the Trump campaign is going to have any chance it will have to overcome the impression that it is based on bullying, threats and intimidation. Stone and Manafort do not seem to have gotten the memo. And yes, I know that Roger Stone is not officially working for Trump. That does not mean that he is not working for Trump.
Ferguson notes that before Trump entered the scene, Cruz was the burr in the side of establishment Republicans. He was the one man who stood up to both Obama and to members of his own party. As I have noted, the great John McCain stood up to defend the daughter of the Muslim Brotherhood, Huma Abedin.
So Ferguson writes:
Like Trump, Cruz saw the extent to which Republican voters were sick of their party establishment. The difference was that, unlike Trump, Cruz didn’t make it up as he went along. Trump was engaged in what is known on the New York comedy scene as “improv.” Nothing Cruz does is improv. He is always the master of his brief.
Nearly everyone has underestimated this man. Back in October, prediction markets said he had a 4 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination. Today that figure is 33 percent. Before accepting bets on Cruz, Betfair should have checked with his opponents when he ran for the Senate in 2012. The man is a politics machine.
Ferguson is clear that the Republican candidate will either be Trump or Cruz:
There is a lot of wild talk in Washington these days about “white knights” riding to the rescue at the convention. The names of Mitt Romney and his running mate — now House Speaker Paul Ryan — are bandied about. But I doubt very much either would want to accept a nomination so flagrantly at odds with the wishes of the primary and caucus voters. By contrast, if Cruz arrives in Cleveland running a close second behind Trump, then he is the most likely nominee.
As though to irritate the easily irritated Trump supporters, Ferguson introduces an analogy:
No analogy is exact, but consider this. In May 1860 the Republican National Convention in Chicago was expected to nominate New York Senator William H. Seward. Few people reckoned with an unprepossessing but gifted lawyer and debater named Abraham Lincoln. He won on the third ballot.
Now, I am not saying Cruz is Lincoln. I am just saying that, on reflection, maybe I can imagine him as president of the United States.
In the interest of being fair and balanced, I bring you a few remarks from today’s lead editorial in the Wall Street Journal. The Journal editorial board is seriously upset that Cruz is the alternative to Trump. It argues that Cruz is nearly unelectable. Having alienated most members of the Republican Party, they argue, Cruz will surely not garner their votes. One might say the same of Donald Trump, so the Journal seems to holding out hope for a white knight, like John Kasich to ride to the rescue. On this point, I am with Ferguson. It’s going to be either Trump or Cruz.
The Journal editorialized this morning:
In other words, Mr. Cruz’s chance to become President hinges on the so-called Republican establishment that he calls “the Washington cartel.” He wants the same people whose enmity he otherwise welcomes to ordain him as the only non-Trump alternative. Then he’ll roll into Cleveland with a smaller plurality of delegates than the businessman but depend on the power brokers of a brokered convention to pry away the nomination.
Of course, the local power brokers have chosen the delegates. And the local power brokers are either working for Cruz or terrified by Trump. The process resembles the Democratic Party’s reliance on Superdelegates… the better not to leave the decision entirely in the hands of the voters.
One naturally finds this idea horrifying, but the founders of the American Republic did not write a constitution that guaranteed anything resembling universal suffrage. Even today the president is not elected by a majority vote of the electorate. The founders certainly did not allow the presidency to be decided by popular vote.
You might consider this to be nefarious, but the current rules allow delegates to vote as they please after the first or the second ballot. Apparently, Trump is just coming to this realization. Cruz has known it all along.
As for the Cruz strategy of assailing Republicans, one must say that Cruz assailed Congressional Republicans, about whom most Republicans have a rather negative opinion. Remind us again of the favorability ratings of Congress—are they still in single digits?
The Journal writes:
One reason Mr. Cruz hasn’t rallied more Republicans, despite the fear of Mr. Trump, is that the Texan built his presidential strategy on assailing Republicans. He’s the political leader of the conservative subculture that has emerged during the Obama Presidency that attributes the country’s problems—from slow growth to stagnant wages to abusive government—to a GOP “surrender caucus” that supposedly sold out or didn’t fight hard enough.
It is true that Cruz is running slightly behind Hillary Clinton, but Trump is running a lot behind. As for the argument, made on other occasions by the Journal, that John Kasich is the most electable candidate in a presidential election, the truth seems to be that he is unelectable as a nominee.
True, Kasich has an excellent record, but his positions on various issues are not likely to appeal to Republicans in the general election. Many people like him because they do not like one or the other of the two leading candidates. They also like him because he is more an idea than a candidate. People like the idea of Kasich, but that does not mean that they will turn out to vote for him, any more than they turned out to vote for Bob Dole or Mitt Romney or John McCain.
Moreover, no one has launched any serious attacks against John Kasich. Perhaps this means that he is so wonderful that no mud would ever stick to him, but, rest assured, by the time the Clinton attack machine is finished with him, you will think that John Kasich is the bastard spawn of Darth Cheney.
In addition, Kasich is not a great debater. He recently refused to debate Ted Cruz one-on-one. If you trust his kind and gentle soul to make the case against Hillary Clinton you have been drinking far too much happy juice. Didn't we already see Mitt Romney shrink from a confrontation with Barack Obama? Do you think that Kasich, based on his debate performance, will do any better?
We already saw what happened when the Republicans sent a young and inexperienced Paul Ryan to debate Joe Biden. He was easily overpowered. For reasons that escape me, this has persuaded people that Ryan is the future of the Republican Party.
The Journal concludes:
The point is that Mr. Cruz has to show he’s more than a faction leader if he wants to be the nominee, much less win in November.
The Texan recently appeared on Jimmy Kimmel’s TV program, and the host told him, “What you did is, you kind of held out until they found someone that they liked less than you.” Mr. Cruz replied, “Listen, it is a powerful strategy.” The audience laughed, but the problem is that it isn’t a joke.
One might dismiss the Cruz strategy in the presidential campaign. One would not have to strain too much to do so. And yet, up to now, it seems to be working. One recalls that William James once said: the truth is what works.
One final point. The Wall Street Journal editorial page is one of the beacons of conservative political thought in America. It is not an innocent bystander or a blogger with a limited readership. It does not just observe and analyze; it shapes opinion, and certainly conservative opinion. By now, it is clear that the Journal’s views on Donald Trump are being ignored by the Republican electorate. One can say that same of the views of that other clarion of conservative opinion journalism: the National Review.
But, if the Journal declares that Cruz is unelectable that will make him more unelectable. For now, unless something extraordinary happens, that lends support to the Trump campaign.
Now let's be clear....Trump was not ill-prepared or disorganized. Trump's running his campaign like a businessman....when you win, you win. There's no going back to redo the deal. It's iron-clad.
But lowlife Ted ....the human cockaroach....is crawling around 24/7 grabbing delegates he is not entitled to.
If there were any failings, it's b/c the Trump people just did not envision the likes of a scumbag like St Ted, reworking the rules to HIS benefit.......the Saint is obsessed w/ Trump hatred, bent on undoing Trump's wins.
When candidates lose, they gracefully bow out. St Cruz Gives a victory speech. His maniacal lust for power tags him as the kind of candidate the Framers of The Constitution wanted the new Nation to avoid.
AS FREEPER SAM ADAMS76 POSTED: "Cruz would love to have Trump’s 'delegate problems.' Trump is hundreds of delegates ahead and about to ring up a couple hundred more before this month is up. What happened to Cruz’s much ballyhooed “ground game” in the Deep South? He had his head handed to him by a Yankee. I don’t see much Cruz ground game here in New York either. Except for some footprints in the Bronx where he made a rather hasty retreat. I guess Cruz isn’t in Kansas anymore." (hat tip Sam Adams 76)
My gripe is con artist Cruz sees a "party rule" and connives to make it work only to HIS advantage.
Crux is exactly the type of candidate w/ an obsessive thirst for power that the Framers of the Constitution wanted the new Nation to guard against.
Cruz is fond of using his numbers as an anti-Trump-vote ...but Cruz never applies Trump's votes against himself.
If Trump won by staggering numbers....that means Cruz lost by staggering numbers.....many many more rejected Cruz than they did Trump.
Does this look like Trump was rejected?
Trump.....8,256,309.... 37.0 1%....758 delegates
Cruz......6,319,244....28.33%.....533 (plus all he can steal)
Cruz keeps losing and losing. About time he bows out gracefully and admit he lost. And he should stop finagling the numbers.
Cruz was in single digits last year. His only saving grace was camping out in Iowa.
That didn’t even give him momentum going into to the south, where he lost ever contest.
Outside of caucuses, his home state, and places where the Gope just flat-out rigs it, he has literally no appeal.
In short, not a chance. What a waste of time of an article.
To win the general an R has to win both FL and OH, Cruz was crushed by Trump in FL by 600,000 voters, and in OH by 400,000. If the GoPe led convention boots Trump, Cruz won’t get 50% of those votes, so no, he has no chance. Nor does any other R but Trump.
And then there’s this, the R’s lose senate and house seats all across the country.
Nothings changed since that Fl and OH tuesday, it’s Trump or Hillary.
And Cruz is none of those.
Guam?
For a second there I thought you were talking about Obama .... LOL!!!!
The parallel's between Lyin' Ted Cruz and Obama are stunning aren't they?!
Yes, and the same is true in the Cruz camp. The difference is the Trump supporters that say they will not vote for Cruz is because they’ve had enough of the Ivy League lawyer/politicians who sell out the country. Perhaps if the party is destroyed, we can start anew for the benefit of the country...not the political class.
Electable in Canada, yes.
Being a documented Canadian,
He has a disqualification that Chester Arthur was only rumored to have. Canadian citizenship at birth on canadian soil.
They never proved it with Arthur.
Ted Cruz has proved it himself.
Cruz just doesn't have that important advantage. That doesn't mean that we should nominate only big-name candidates. Because Jeb has a big name, yet he's a complete dud.
Nevertheless, Cruz has a problem here. He will lose as Goldwater did. Goldwater was a good man, and a patriot. But Goldwater couldn't overcome media bias to get his message across. The exact same thing will happen to Cruz.
No, he’s not unforunately.
Bingo. Trump supporters have gone out of their way to trash Cruz and will ensure a pyrrhic victory for hiLIARy if trump isn’t the nominee.
I will vote Cruz or trump in the primary, but will never vote kasich.
You know when Ted lost me and lot of other people?
When he stood by and smugly criticized Trump for inciting the violence that was planned and caused by thousands of Soros-funded violent demonstrators who shut down Trump's attempts to speak in Chicago
That action was without principles, much less the ones he claimed to represent
I mighta gotten over Slick calling Trump supporters low educated and low info and his dicking around with Amanda Carpenter who knows how many other toots
but when you ally with Soros, you are gone
Game over man, game over
Good article. B U T;
I see no way either Trump or Cruz can beat Hillary. Their scorched earth campaigns have not only turned off a large group of voters, but has negated the chance they might team up, which might, just might lead to a victory.
Of course the GOPe is more interested in maintaining the status quo than winning with either Cruz or Trump. And at this point if they slip in one of their acceptable candidates, the Trump and Cruz supporters will guarantee a Democrat triumph of historic proportions.
the press will NEVER let Cruz win, Trump may be big enough to go over the press
Virginia
Florida
Ohio
Ted came in Third in three States he MUST win.
He did not win 20% of the Vote in those States
He did not win a SINGLE County in those Three States.
Cruz Bots add I don't think he has a Chance in Colorado now. That is Four States he can't lose but can't Win.
So Cruz Bots how does he win losing those States?
tl;dr
No.
1. He’s not a NBC U.S citizen.
2. Many people are going to drop their self identification with conservatism while remaining essentially as conservative as they where. Only the Rino Conservatives will be left.
the media has not even started on cruz yet, but when they do it is going to be a firestorm of hell, and his supporters will act all surprised.
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2012 Romney 206, red .. Obama 303, blue ... 270 needed to win blue
That's a very good point!
Question: Who has behaved more stupidly during the primary season, Trump or Cruz?
Answer: It was a trick question. It's a tie. They have both crossed the Major Stupidity threshold.
:}
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