Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trumps big win in Nevada and after Cruzs SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubios withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then its been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utahs 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the other nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New Yorks delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trumps hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% hes gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.
With Trumps complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, its become almost a certainty that if Trump cant get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
The convention is an extension of the democratic process. I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention. Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man whos run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
Where does that quote come from and to whom did/does it refer?
So you are certain Trump will never get 1237+ to begin with.
I cannot vote because I live in a territory. But if I could I’d stay home. Yes PIAPS or Mr Green Jeans will be worse but the GrOP-e has lost me forever if they let Cruz use sleazy maneuvers to steal the nomination from someone that has three or four times as many votes
Certain? No. And if he does he’ll almost definitely win the nomination. But if he doesn’t there’s a much better chance that Cruz will be nominated on the second ballot than Trump.
What would you have GOP tell millions upon millions of voters who voted for Trump? Sorry, those are the rules and the process?
These folks don’t care about the voters. Just like their cReepy candidate.
I used to say Ted wouldn’t win the nomination but the GOP might let him have it. They’d prefer Hillary to Trump and that’s what they would get. Unfortunately, so will we.
Little Donald looks smaller every day. New York will be his last hurrah, I hope. If not, and he wins the nomination, I will vote Libertarian in the upcoming general election. I am tired of being told, as a conservative, that I have to (yet again) hold my nose and vote for a more liberal nominee like McCain, Romney, any Bush, or this time, Little Donald.
The little game Donald Jr. is talking about is the same Cronyism the Trump fortune is built on. Trump is not ending it. It is what he is all about.
What, this quote?
Don't care if he was born in a manger on July 4th! A "Natural Born" citizen requires two US parents!That was 2ndDivisionVet's tagline a few years ago, back when he apparently was focused on Barack 0bama's Presidential eligibility or lack thereof.
Given that 2DV now supports Ted Cruz for President, his position on what constitutes a Natural Born Citizen seems to have "evolved" in a rather predictable direction.
Having said that, I myself believe that Ted Cruz is an NBC, but he certainly couldn't be one under 2DV's pre-evolution definition.
And I also believe that the Democrats will use teh issue against Ted Cruz, fair or not, should the opportunity arise.
Of course, inasmuch as Cruz is simply a GOPe dupe who will not get the nomination in any event, that opportunity for the Democrats (fortunately) will not arise...
Go, Ted, go! With momentum!
Is Ted Cruz a natural-born citizen eligible to serve as president? [Yes! And I support him! JimRob]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3084490/posts
How...fascinating.
I eagerly await his explanation/justification for the sudden 'change of heart".
:)
[epic catch, by the way]
This is written by a Cruz shill: farce.
So you justify this apparent hypocrisy by name-dropping JR, as cover?
Hmmm....
I already noted as much, including my opinion that Ted Cruz is natural born.
I was just curious about your personal journey regarding your interpretation of the NBC issue, which has clearly "evolved"...
Aw, nope, you’re wrong about that UnwashedPeasant.
That’s the GOP, the RNC, Big Donors and Senator Cruz.
You’ve never changed your mind on anything when new facts presented themselves? How old are you?
There was that British bloke Edward-something who married an American woman. Simpson I think her name was. Whether or not Edward remained King of England with Simpson as his queen or merely the duke and dutchess of Windsor, the Cruz supporters would insist that their royal offspring were natural born US citizens eligible for the US presidency. In fact, said offspring would have precisely the same quality of citizenship as Mr.Cruz. ex-pat mother marrying a foreigner in a foreign land.
Cruz supporters will tell you that is exactly who Founders John Jay and George Washington had in mind for the president when they constructed the eligibility clause of the Constitution.
N.Y. has 95 delegates to win, on April 19th. Cruz won't win any of them, since he is third in all polls and loathed by the vast majority of New Yorkers all over that state!
Trump shall win and win BIGGER, his home state, than Cruz won in his.
And Cruz is also NOT going to win Pa., Ct., R.I., Delaware, Maryland, and N.J.!
Neither are Cruz and KaSICKO going to keep Trump from getting the 1237 needed delegates.
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